The Fed will cut rates. The dollar is losing value, the euro is gaining.

It is already a foregone conclusion that in September the Reserve The Fed will return to its interest rate cut cycle. This is bad news for the dollar, which is losing ground against the euro again. The Polish zloty has not reacted yet, but This is potentially a good situation for our currency.

On Wednesday, Mary Daly, the head of the San Francisco Fed, spoke openly she voted in favor of reducing interest rates interest rates "in the coming months." In practice, this means September. The market The forward rate already rates the chances of a 25-basis-point reduction in the federal funds rate at 93% at the next (September 17) FOMC meeting.

This is a big change, because just a week ago the probability of such a decisions were valued at only 38%. Everything changed after the publication of weak data from the American labor market . The BLS report was so weak that it cost position as head of BLS, immediately fired by President Trump .

This development of events caused the EUR/USD exchange rate to move sharply in up and may soon attack this year's maximum (1.1830). On Thursday morning The euro was valued at $1.1684, up 0.2%. Theoretically, a weakening The dollar should support the appreciation of the zloty. But so far, this has not happened. history.

At 9:40 the euro exchange rate to The zloty remained largely unchanged at PLN 4.2710. For several days now the Polish currency remained under pressure from sellers and the EUR/PLN exchange rate was slowly approached the level of PLN 4.30. This line is the upper limit of the applicable sideways trend since April. A possible permanent break of this level at based on technical analysis, it would open the way to PLN 4.40. The euro is not that expensive we have seen since November 2023.

- We do not rule out that the recently observed relative weakness of the domestic currency may result in a test PLN 4.30 per euro in the coming days - the Bank wrote in its morning report Domestic Economy. In turn, analysts at Bank Millennium pointed out that in On Thursday, new restrictions imposed by the US on 70 trading partners came into force tariff rates, and their final impact on the global economy will have to be assessed wait.

- The average US tariff rate increased to 50% from 15.2%. We believe that for a lasting improvement in the US trade balance to occur, there would be a long period of a fairly weak dollar. In the base scenario, we assume that The dollar will lose against the euro in the coming quarters towards 1.20, they said. Bank Millennium experts.

Meanwhile, on the domestic market, the dollar is trading on Thursday morning PLN 3.6531 was paid, which is one grosz less than the day before. During the week , the USD/PLN exchange rate It has already fallen by 10 cents after it was attacking the level of 3.75 last Friday zloty.

The Swiss franc weakened along with the dollar. The Helvetian currency was paid at 4.5411 PLN. This is significantly less than a week ago. ago, when the CHF/PLN exchange rate briefly exceeded the PLN 4.60 line. In turn, The pound exchange rate fell below the level of PLN 4.90 British . Sterling cost 4.8880 PLN.

KK

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