Mixed trend in global markets: Gold rose, stock markets fell

Global markets are on a negative trajectory due to increasing financial concerns about the US economy and deepening selling pressure on sovereign bonds around the world.

Questions are growing about the economic impact of the US administration's protectionist policies. The Federal Circuit's ruling that many of the US administration's global tariffs are illegal has fueled these concerns, fueled by President Donald Trump's comments yesterday.

Trump stated that they are considering appealing to the Supreme Court regarding the tariffs. Announcing that they will request an expedited decision from the court, Trump said, "That's why the stock market is down today because the market is demanding tariffs."

Analysts pointed out that if the Supreme Court rules that the tariffs are illegal, the U.S. economy may have to pay back the revenue it generated from the tariffs, raising concerns about a possible increase in the country's budget deficit.

These developments, which brought fiscal concerns to the forefront in the US economy, combined with ongoing political uncertainties and inflation concerns at the global level, strengthened the selling pressure on bonds.

Yesterday, the US 10-year bond yield rose to 4.30 percent, while Japan's 10-year bond yield rose to 1.63 percent. The rise in bond yields was also seen in the Eurozone, with France, where political uncertainty persists, seeing the 10-year yield rise to 3.58 percent, and the UK's 10-year bond yield rose to 4.69 percent.

On the other hand, while it is almost certain that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates this month, predictions regarding the steps the Bank will take in the coming period, amid concerns about accelerating inflation, are also influencing investor decisions.

In addition to these developments, investors are also focused on a busy global data calendar today as they await Friday's US nonfarm payroll data release. The Fed's Beige Book report, due for release today, is expected to provide further insight into the current state of the national economy.

In addition, leading economists, including Nobel laureates, stated that the attempted removal of Fed Board Member Lisa Cook threatened the principle of central bank independence and called on the government to uphold the laws and norms that protect U.S. economic governance.

On the macroeconomic data front, the US manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) remained below expectations despite rising to 48.7 in August, indicating that the contraction in the sector continues.

Construction spending in the country also decreased by 0.1 percent in July, in line with market expectations.

HISTORICAL RECORD IN OUNCE GOLD

In light of these developments, the US 10-year bond yield is currently at 4.28 percent, while the Fed's interest rate cut is considered certain, rising global financial concerns and political uncertainties have increased demand for gold, which has safe haven properties.

After hitting a record high of $3,540 per ounce yesterday, the price of gold climbed to $3,547 on the new trading day, reaching its all-time high. Currently, gold is trading at $3,535 per ounce, up 0.5 percent.

Despite the Fed's expected interest rate cut, the dollar index rebounded on rising global financial and economic concerns, closing yesterday up 0.7 percent at 98.4. The index is currently at 98.5, up 0.1 percent.

The price of a barrel of Brent crude is currently trading at $68.8, down 0.3 percent.

On the New York Stock Exchange yesterday, the S&P 500 index fell 0.69 percent, the Nasdaq index fell 0.82 percent, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.55 percent. Index futures contracts in the US also opened the day with mixed activity.

Lagarde's speech will be followed in the eurozone

As European stock markets remain on a sell-off trend, all eyes are on the speech that European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will deliver at the 9th Annual Conference of the European Systemic Risk Board to be held in Germany today.

Analysts noted that ECB President Lagarde's statements will provide clues regarding the global and regional economic trajectory and future steps, and that pricing in money markets suggests the ECB is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged on September 11.

Meanwhile, while political developments in France are being closely followed, leaders of the far-right National Rally (RN), the largest political party in the country's parliament, stated that they are determined to vote to bring down the government in the confidence poll to be held on September 8.

French Finance Minister Eric Lombard said the government would be forced to compromise on its plans to reduce the budget deficit if Prime Minister François Bayrou is ousted in a vote of no confidence next week.

According to data released yesterday, annual inflation in the Eurozone rose to 2.1 percent in August. The Producer Price Index (PPI) data for July, released today, will be closely watched.

Yesterday, the FTSE 100 index in the UK fell 0.87 percent, the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy fell 1.61 percent, the CAC 40 index in France fell 0.7 percent, and the DAX 40 in Germany fell 2.29 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the day mixed.

Asian stock markets traded lower

Selling pressures caused by increasing financial concerns in the US have been transferred to the Asian side in the new day, while regional markets, except for South Korea, are on a negative trend.

The sell-off in Japan's bond markets is drawing attention. The rise in yields on Japan's 10, 20, and 30-year government bonds is striking, with the country's 20-year bond yield reaching 2.67%, its highest level since 2000. The Japanese 30-year bond yield also reached an all-time high of 3.26%.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda announced that they exchanged views on the economy and financial markets with Japanese Prime Minister Isiba Shigeru.

Ueda stated that there was no change in the BOJ's stance on interest rate hikes at the meeting. The BOJ governor reported that foreign exchange issues were discussed during the meeting.

According to data released today in the region, Japan's August services sector Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 53.1, and the composite PMI was 52. In China, the RatingDog services sector PMI was 53 and the composite PMI was 51.9. All of these indices increased compared to the previous month.

With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell 1 percent, the Shanghai Composite index in China fell 1 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong fell 0.6 percent, while the Kospi index in South Korea rose 0.1 percent.

TURKSTAT WILL ANNOUNCE INFLATION

Following a sell-off yesterday, the BIST 100 index on the Borsa Istanbul closed the day at 10,877.52 points, losing 3.57 percent. The October futures contract based on the BIST 30 index on the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) rose 0.1 percent in last night's session compared to the regular session close. All eyes will be on today's inflation data.

AA Finans's survey of expectations regarding the August inflation data to be announced today by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) has been concluded with the participation of 25 economists.

Economists participating in the survey had an average monthly inflation expectation of 1.79 percent in August. Their inflation expectations for August ranged from 1.50 percent to 2.20 percent.

USD/TRY closed at 41.1390 ​​yesterday, up 0.1 percent, and is trading at 41.1650 today, 0.1 percent above its previous close at the opening of the interbank market.

Analysts stated that a busy data agenda will be followed today, with inflation in the country, PPI in the Eurozone, services and composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) globally, and JOLTS job openings in the US being the primary focus. They noted that from a technical perspective, the 10,800 and 10,700 levels in the BIST 100 index are support levels, while 11,000 and 11,100 points are resistance levels.

Here are the data to follow in the markets today:

10.00 Türkiye, August Consumer Price Index

10.00 Türkiye, August Domestic Consumer Price Index

10.30 Eurozone, ECB President Lagarde's speech

10.55 Germany, August services/composite PMI

11.00 Eurozone August services/composite PMI

11.30 UK August services/composite PMI

12.00 Euro Zone, July Producer Price Index

14.00 US, weekly mortgage applications

17.00 US, July JOLTS job openings

5:00 PM US July factory orders

5:00 PM US durable goods orders for July

21.00 US, Fed's Beige Book