Trap or victory for Türkiye... A US base in the heart of the Caucasus

Last week, the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia met in Washington, hosted by Trump, and signed a framework peace agreement. The most striking aspect of this agreement is undoubtedly the transfer of Armenia's Zangezur Corridor , a key point in the Caucasus, to US operation and renamed the "Trump Corridor." This effectively signals to the world that the US has established a key position in the Caucasus.

IMPORTANCE OF CORRIDOR

The corridor in question lies between the mainland Azerbaijani territory and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic of Azerbaijan. Therefore, the corridor acts as a barrier between both Azerbaijani territories and between Turkey and the mainland Azerbaijan. Furthermore, Armenia's sole connection to Iran is through this corridor. It also provides Iran with a connection to the Caucasus and facilitates communication between Russia and Armenia.

HISTORICAL BORDERS

Those in the know know that the current state of the South Caucasus (Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan) is partly a product of the social engineering carried out by Tsarist Russia and, to a lesser extent, by Soviet leader Stalin. The Russians, who seized the South Caucasus in the early 1800s, brought a significant Armenian population from Eastern Anatolia during the Russo-Turkish War of 1828-29, during which they occupied Eastern Anatolia, thus making the Armenian population a majority in what is now Armenia. Furthermore, the Albanian Church, which had existed in the Caucasus until the 1800s, was closed and incorporated into the Armenian Gregorian Church. This facilitated the assimilation of the Albanians, a group of peoples of the South Caucasus, into the Armenian community. A significant portion of the Azeri Turks were also forced to leave the region. The Tsarist government also forced most of the Sunni Azeri Turks to leave. This enabled them to divide and govern the Muslims of the Caucasus into Sunni and Shia groups. I'm not claiming here that "the original inhabitants of this region are such and such a people," nor am I saying that "everyone should return to historical borders." However, it's important to remember that this is how the current ethnic map of the South Caucasus emerged.

Then, during World War I, Russia experienced first the February Revolution of 1917, and then the October Revolution that same year. During this period, when Russia was shaken by revolutions, Georgians, Armenians, and Azeris in the South Caucasus established a state called the "Transcaucasian Federation." However, due to conflicts, particularly between Azeris and Armenians, this federation dissolved in 1918, giving rise to the independent states of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. At that time, Baku was under occupation by Armenians affiliated with the Dashnak Party, Russian Mensheviks, and the British. Ottoman forces, on the other hand, liberated Kars and Ardahan from 40 years of Russian occupation. At the invitation of the Azerbaijani government in Ganja, Ottoman forces advanced and entered Baku (the lines "The machine gun at the front shines like a mirror/Azerbaijan Turks await with flags raised" in the now-rarely read second stanza of the folk song "Hoş Gelenler Ola" (Welcome Arrivals), which recounts the liberation of Kars, depict this period. The Ottoman advancement of oil from their then-capital to Baku also worried their wartime ally, the Germans, who resorted to every means to prevent it. Meanwhile, Georgians and, to a lesser extent, Armenians in the Caucasus came under German protection (the second volume of Şevket Süreyya Aydemir's book "Enver Pasha from Macedonia to Central Asia" contains information about the Germans' clandestine aid to Armenia, even providing them with a military aircraft).

The intoxication of victory

After several centuries of retreating in wars and suffering defeat after defeat against the Russians, our forces are now in the ecstasy of advancement in the Caucasus. Especially upon entering Baku, they feel a return to the era of Genghis Khan and the establishment of a great Turko-Turanian empire. However, while the Turkish officers in Baku were in the throes of victory, the British broke through Ottoman lines in Syria just four days after the capture of Baku, and within a month, all of Syria and Lebanon fell into British and French hands. Bulgaria's withdrawal from the war and the severing of land links with Germany also forced the Ottomans to surrender. When the Turkish officers in Azerbaijan, who dreamed of returning to the era of Genghis Khan, learned that these lands would be handed over to the British and Armenians in accordance with the provisions of the Armistice of Mudros, they were devastated (the first volume of Captain Selahattin's Novel and Şevket Süreyya Aydemir's The Man Seeking Water describe this shock beautifully).

Georgians and Armenians have diasporas in European countries, and these inform their compatriots about how the war was turning against Germany and its allies. Thus, it would not be difficult for the Georgian and Armenian governments to turn to the British instead of Germany. Azeri Turks, lacking such a diaspora, were stunned by the end of Ottoman rule and the British occupation of Baku. The years that followed led to a complete divergence in priorities between the Turks of Turkey and the Turks of Azerbaijan. For the Azerbaijani government, the primary priority at that time was to resist the Russians, whether pro-Tsarist or communist, and of course, the Dashnak Armenians, and it did not hesitate to seek British protection against them. The Ankara government, led by Mustafa Kemal Pasha, and its subordinate, Kazım Karabekir, had completely different priorities. The Ankara government secured the support of Soviet Russia against the British, French, and Greek occupation of Anatolia. Thus, a rupture between Turkey and Azerbaijan, scarcely remembered these days, occurred. During these years, Britain built a Caucasus Wall between Soviet Russia and the Ankara government, comprising Menevik Georgia, Dashnak Armenia, and the Musavat Party-led Azerbaijani government. However, this British wall would not last long, and Soviet armies captured these areas, establishing a border with Turkey.

In the Soviet-administered Caucasus, the borders that would remain until today were drawn in the early 1920s. This was done by Stalin, who was the Commissar (Minister) of Nationalities at the time. The Zangezur region was placed between Türkiye and Nakhchijan and mainland Azerbaijan, while those wishing to travel from Zangezur to other parts of Armenia would have to pass through Nakhchivan, which was then part of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. Karabakh was also left to Azerbaijan as an autonomous region. Thus, a structure was established that would be extremely difficult to operate without Moscow.

However, this structure began to collapse, particularly with the Ukraine War. Russia entered Ukraine expecting a short-term operation, but the war turned into a quagmire for Russia, leading to a loss of power in other regions. Indeed, the collapse of the Russian-backed Baath regime in Syria at the end of last year was a testament to this. The Ukraine War also disrupted the balance of power in the Caucasus. As we recall, in 2020, Azerbaijan aligned itself with Russia, secured the withdrawal of Russian support behind Armenia, and liberated a large part of Karabakh from Armenian occupation. However, just as Azeri forces captured Shusha and approached Khankendi, the administrative center of Nagorno-Karabakh, the Russians declared, "Stop it there," and thus a Russian-mediated system emerged, with part of Karabakh under Azeri control and the other Armenian.

This order, established by Russia, collapsed when Azerbaijan, seizing the opportunity of the Russo-Ukrainian War that broke out in 2022, recaptured all of Karabakh at the end of 2023. Following this victory, Azerbaijan gained self-confidence against Russia, while the Armenian government distanced itself from Russia, claiming, "Russia didn't protect us." In other words, one of the two adversaries distanced itself from Russia thanks to its victory, while the other, due to its defeat, distanced itself from Russia. But of course, this process didn't proceed so spontaneously: US and EU officials had both Armenia and Azerbaijan under surveillance. Finally, a peace process orchestrated by the West began to materialize.

WHY DOES THE WEST SUPPORT IT?

There are several reasons for this: First, they will surround Russia from the south and Iran from the north. Second, Azerbaijan's energy resources are of great importance to the West, which is abandoning Russian gas. Third, and no less important, the Caucasus represents a corridor to Central Asia. Consequently, both the US and the EU want to dominate the Caucasus, bypassing Russia and gaining access to Central Asia's resources. The importance of the tiny Zangezur (Trump) Corridor between Nakhchivan and the mainland Azerbaijan thus becomes even clearer.

The first direct meeting between Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders took place in the United Arab Emirates, without any mediator. Until the very last moment, the US administration was reluctant to overestimate its presence in the process. The Armenian administration, too, denied reports that it would hand over the Zangezur Corridor to US control. Of course, it's not easy. Russian soldiers withdrew from this corridor, which had been guarded by Russian soldiers until earlier this year, at the Armenian administration's request. Now, with the announcement that he would hand over the area to the Americans after expelling the Russians, last week's meeting clarified everything. While there is no definitive agreement yet, the process is moving toward that goal.

Interestingly, while Russia remained relatively silent on this agreement, Iran raised hell. Russia's current silence can be explained by two factors: First, the Russian administration believes it can intervene and prevent the process at some point and does not want to project the image of a "country that does not want peace" by directly opposing it at this stage. Second, Russia's eyes are currently focused on the Trump-Putin Summit in Alaska on August 15th and are currently unable to see anything else. Meanwhile, the Iranian press and Iranian officials say that transferring this corridor to the US would mean encircling Iran from the north. The Iranian press notes that relations between Israel and Azerbaijan have recently intensified in many areas, including defense, and that this project will benefit Israel and even pave the way for Israel to attack Iran from the north in the future.

Meanwhile, some among us are cheering the opening of the Trump Corridor: It's said that this will open the way from Türkiye to Baku. We must ask: When Russian soldiers are replaced by US security forces and the pipeline valves are in US hands, will we become a great power?

It's also important to remember the hostility toward Iran that was instilled within various political circles in Türkiye during the recent Iran-Israel War. Some, referring to Tabriz, the capital of Iranian Azerbaijan, chanted slogans like "From Aleppo to Tabriz" (the US and Israel are also very keen on giving it to you). Others, who claim to be secular, started out with hostility toward the mullahs' regime and indirectly supported Israel by saying, "They deserve whatever happens to them." Some from the Neo-Ottoman and Islamist camps invoked Iran's Shiism. Let's ask these groups, who rightfully reacted to Israel's genocide in Gaza but then continued to harangue Israel: Is it bad when Israel is in Gaza, but good when it's in the east, right under our noses? Last year, as the Bashar Assad regime, which held Syria together—for better or worse*—collapsed, and it was clear that this would benefit Israel, how logical is it to view the raising of the Turkish flag over Aleppo Castle as Türkiye's return to dominance in Syria, and then to be surprised when Israel creates a David Corridor in the Kurdish region from the Druze? Shouldn't foreign policy be approached with some integrity?

Deniz Berktay

Odatv.com