With just over a year to go until the election, what the polls reveal about 2026

Scheduled for October 2026, the elections are already beginning to dominate the political scene just over a year before they take place.

Recently released surveys show the evaluation of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's (PT) government, first and second round scenarios, and possible candidates for the Planalto Palace.

CNN provides some details of the surveys below.

Government evaluation

According to Datafolha released on Saturday (2), Lula's third administration maintains a stable disapproval rating .

Since the survey carried out last month, in July, the level of those who consider the government's performance as "bad" or "terrible" has remained the same: 40%.

Meanwhile, the most recent approval rating is around 29%, compared to 28% in June who rated the federal government's work as "good" or "excellent." Those who consider the administration "average" rose from 31% to 29%, while 1% declined to respond.

Last Thursday (31), the AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey shows a scenario of equality for the Lula government . The administration is evaluated as bad or terrible by 48.2%, and excellent or good by 46.6%. Those who consider it average total 5.1%.

Lula is approved by 50.2% of Brazilians. 49.7% disapprove of the head of the Executive .

2026 Scenarios

Datafolha released several electoral scenarios for 2026.

Former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is ineligible until 2030 after being convicted by the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) and the representative of his political camp at the polls is still undecided.

However, Lula appears to be ahead of all potential presidential candidates. See:

Scenario 1

• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT): 39%
• Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 33%
• Ratinho Junior (PSD): 7%
• Ronaldo Caiado (Union): 5%
• Romeu Zema (New): 4%
• Blank/null/none: 9%
• Don't know: 2%

Scenario 2

• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT): 39%
• Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL): 20%
• Ratinho Junior (PSD): 11%
• Ronaldo Caiado (Union): 8%
• Romeu Zema (New): 7%
• Blank/null/none: 13%
• Don't know: 2%

Scenario 3

• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT): 40%
• Flavio Bolsonaro (PL): 18%
• Ratinho Junior (PSD): 11%
• Ronaldo Caiado (Union): 8%
• Romeu Zema (New): 7%
• Blank/null/none: 13%
• Don't know: 3%

Scenario 4

• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT): 39%
• Michelle Bolsonaro (PL): 24%
• Ratinho Junior (PSD): 10%
• Ronaldo Caiado (Union): 7%
• Romeu Zema (New): 6%
• Blank/null/none: 11%
• Don't know: 3%

Scenario 5

• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT): 38%
• Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans): 21%
• Ratinho Junior (PSD): 12%
• Ronaldo Caiado (Union): 7%
• Romeu Zema (New): 6%
• Blank/null/none: 14%
• Don't know: 3%

The second round was also tested. Check it out:

• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT): 47% (44% in June)
• Jair Bolsonaro (PL): 43% (45% in June)
• Blank/Null/None: 10% (10% in June)
• Don't know: 0% (1% in June)

Tariff hike, the United States and the economy

PoderData tested several scenarios regarding the US tariff hike and the state of the Brazilian economy.

Forty-six percent of Brazilians blame the Bolsonaro family for the tariffs . Thirty-two percent blame Lula. Those who didn't know how to respond total 23%. These figures are based on the 74% who said they were aware of the surcharge.

According to 59%, Brazil should have more trade relations with the United States than with China . On the other hand, 32% opted to say the country should develop closer ties with China. Those who didn't know the answer totaled 9%.

For 59% of Brazilian voters, there has been an increase in the price of supermarket purchases and also in general expenses recorded in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, 9% say the opposite: that these costs have decreased. Another 24%, however, see no difference in the costs, and another 8% were unsure.

Lula and Bolsonaro absent from the election?

According to Datafolha, 71% believe Lula will run for reelection . 23% say he will not.

On another front, 67% say Bolsonaro should give up running . For 30%, he should maintain his candidacy.

Methodologies

AtlasIntel interviewed 7,334 people through random digital recruitment between July 25th and 28th. The confidence level is 95%. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.

Datafolha interviewed 2,004 people in person between July 29 and 30. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.

PoderData interviewed 2,500 people via telephone between July 26th and 28th. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points, and the confidence level is 95%.

*Published by Douglas Porto