Comments after the dismissal of the president of Zabrze. The opposition was helped by the referendum regulations

• What was the decision to recall Agnieszka Rupniewska in Sunday's (11 May) referendum?
• - Residents have recalled the city mayor from the Civic Coalition. This is a signal that Poles have had enough of this inept team - wrote Karol Nawrocki, a candidate for president of the Republic of Poland supported by PiS, on social media.
• - The result of the referendum in Zabrze is certainly not related to the change in nationwide political sympathies - said sociologist Prof. Jarosław Flis in an interview with PortalSamorzadowy.pl.
• - We can see in the latest polls that the proportions of support between Law and Justice and Civic Platform have changed in favour of PO rather than PiS compared to April last year - he added.
• He noted that one of the key factors influencing the referendum results was the city’s poor financial situation and difficulties related to communication between local authorities and residents.

As we have already reported, in the referendum on Sunday (11 May), the residents of Zabrze dismissed the mayor of that city, Agnieszka Rupniewska, by an overwhelming majority of votes.

There were 116.9 thousand people eligible to vote. The referendum is valid because more than 3/5 of the voters who voted for her in the second round in 2024 went to the polls on Sunday. In her case, this threshold was 25.9 thousand votes .

In the vote on the recall, the Zabrze city president cast 29,207 valid votes, which means that the referendum was binding. As many as 27,161 voters voted for the recall of Agnieszka Rupniewska, and only 2,046 were against.

The referendum initiators accused Agnieszka Rupniewska of, among other things, group layoffs in local government units, increases in local fees , and the prolonged privatization process of Górnik Zabrze. Rupniewska refuted the allegations, pointing out, among other things, that she took over a city in a very bad financial situation and had to save it from bankruptcy.

The duties of the city president are taken over by a government commissioner , who serves as a temporary ruler. He will be appointed by the prime minister at the request of the Silesian voivode. Early elections for the president of Zabrze will be held no later than 90 days after the official announcement of the referendum results .

The dismissal of the mayor of Zabrze is being widely commented on by experts, publicists, and well-known politicians. The results of the Zabrze referendum were commented on by Karol Nawrocki, a candidate for president of the Republic of Poland supported by PiS.

- The residents of Zabrze have recalled the mayor of the city from the Civic Coalition in a local referendum! This is a signal that Poles have had enough of this incompetent team . The presidential elections (to be held on Sunday, May 18 - ed.) will be a symbolic referendum on Donald Tusk's government. Let's show this harmful government a red card - wrote Nawrocki on Monday, May 12 on the X platform.

Former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki echoed him on Facebook: - Yesterday in Zabrze, and on Sunday in the whole of Poland, let's show a yellow card to Tusk's government - we read in the post of the former head of government.

Can the results of the local referendum be connected in any way with the elections for the President of the Republic of Poland? Prof. Jarosław Flis, a sociologist from the Jagiellonian University, political commentator and publicist, admits in an interview with PortalSamorzadowy.pl that the referendum defeat of the mayor of Zabrze - who ran as a candidate from the Civic Coalition committee, although she does not belong to any party - gave a little wings to the current parliamentary opposition.

On the other hand, it is obvious to me that the result of the Zabrze referendum is not the result of a change in nationwide political sympathies. We can see in the latest polls that the proportions of support between Law and Justice and Civic Platform have changed in favor of PO rather than PiS compared to April last year.

- points out the expert.

He points out that in the case of Zabrze, one of the key factors influencing the results of Sunday's referendum was the city's disastrous financial situation (more on that later in the text) and certain difficulties related to communication between local authorities and residents.

- It is known that staying in power when you take over the government during a financial crisis is not an easy task. We will see who will win the early elections in this city. However, it cannot be ruled out that - due to the exceptionally difficult financial situation of Zabrze - for example , in a year there will be another referendum - says Prof. Jarosław Flis.

He is also another expert who draws attention to the disastrous construction of the regulations regarding the principles of organizing recall referenda.

- The referendum ordinance means that those who vote against the recall of the president, mayor or commune head actually greatly increase the chances of their opponents , because by going to the referendum they also contribute to reaching the statutory referendum threshold. I am not saying, of course, that there should be no such threshold, but the current one is simply flawed - emphasizes the sociologist from the Jagiellonian University.

And he reminds us that it was precisely due to poorly constructed regulations that in 2012 not only the then mayor of Bytom, Piotr Koj, was dismissed - which was in line with the will of the referendum organizers - but also the city council, which the referendum supporters did not want...

In 2012, residents who voted not to recall the Bytom City Council paradoxically contributed to its recall. If they had stayed home, the council would have survived…

- emphasizes Prof. Flis.

He points out that the so-called Bytom paradox has become a model proof of the defectiveness of some referendum regulations.

- The current mechanism works in such a way that referenda are much less likely to be held - due to the failure to reach the turnout threshold - in smaller communes, primarily rural ones - our interlocutor points out.

At the same time, he reserves that such absurd situations, such as the one in Bytom, could be prevented by introducing an appropriate template into the referendum regulations.

- It is supposed to make every vote raise the bar for those who want to recall the mayor. However, now it is the case that every vote in favor of defending the president, mayor or mayor de facto lowers the bar in the referendum for those who want to recall him and paradoxically favors his recall - sums up prof. Jarosław Flis.

The government commissioner, but above all the future president of Zabrze, like Agnieszka Rupniewska, will have to face the problems of the city's gigantic debt, which will reach approximately PLN 900 million by the end of 2024 .

- The level of debt exceeded 60% of total revenues at that time. Current expenditures (e.g. salaries and daily maintenance of the city) had not been covered by current revenues for a long time.

- We devoted the entire last year to saving our city from bankruptcy. We focused on activities that led to the city's bank account receiving PLN 354 million in loans from the Ministry of Finance on December 23, 2024. This was our priority - said Agnieszka Rupniewska in December last year,

It is difficult to evaluate my activity when I have been managing my planned budget for only three months. Before that, I only had a terrible budget left by my predecessors.

- Rupniewska said then.

In May this year, when asked about the mistakes she had made that could have led to the referendum initiative, she indicated that she could have communicated better with residents about what the previous city authorities had left behind . Among her successes so far, she listed obtaining PLN 81 million in EU and national support, submitting applications for another PLN 154 million, and organizing meetings from the "Districts in Dialogue" series.

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Agnieszka Rupniewska is 39 years old. In the past, she was associated with, among others, the Democratic Left Alliance. In 2015, she ran unsuccessfully for the Sejm on behalf of the United Left.

She is currently not a member of any political party. In the local elections in April 2024, she won a mandate from the Civic Coalition list. In the second round, she received the support of 57.85 percent of voters, defeating Małgorzata Mańka-Szulik, who had been the mayor of the city since 2006. Agnieszka Rupniewska previously served one term on the Zabrze City Council.