Vox Moment

Vox capitalizes on the slogan "Mafia or democracy." It was written all over the place. The fury of Génova Street ends in Plaza de Colón. The injection of fuel into the engine of political tension gives the far right another gear. The Cerdán case, the PSOE's Organization Secretary imprisoned for alleged corruption, is scoring points in favor of Vox. Willy-nilly, Madrid's phenomenal media blender is working tirelessly for the far right. The first private polls published in recent weeks already pointed in that direction. The July barometer released yesterday by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) confirms this assessment. The Socialist Party would lose seven points in voting intention with no visible benefit for the Popular Party. The two main parties are showing their lowest voter turnout in the last two years. Both are currently below 30%.

The Cerdán-Ábalos-Koldo case has taken a heavy toll on the PSOE, keeping the PP where it was, slightly reviving Sumar, and pushing Vox to around 19%, a figure never seen in recent years. If we take into account the 1.7% that the poll attributes to the Alvise (The Party's Over) list, the Spanish radical right would currently be above 20%. These percentages are already being seen in other European countries: Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal, Poland, not counting Hungary and Italy. A right-wing majority would be overwhelming in a future Spanish Parliament, with Vox holding over fifty seats. Santiago Abascal's party could severely condition a future government, with the consequent impact on European balances. This is the dynamic with which we arrive in the summer of 2025, halfway through the Amnesty Law's term.

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In La Vanguardia, we pointed out this week, in the midst of the parliamentary debate, that Vox was on the rise and could reach 18% of the vote or perhaps more. The July CIS poll gives it a projection of 18.9%. Santiago Abasca is tied with Alberto Núñez Feijóo in the spontaneous response to the question: "Who would you prefer as Prime Minister?" 11.4% each. That ranking remains led by Pedro Sánchez (22.5%), whose credibility has suffered a sharp decline as a result of the scandal that has monopolized Spanish political news for a month. The Prime Minister currently inspires little or no confidence in 73.6% of those surveyed. The leader of the opposition inspires little or no confidence in 78.1%. Corruption appears to be the second main problem in Spanish society, behind housing. These are data from the Weimar Republic.

The PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) drops seven points. The majority of disenchanted socialist voters are abstaining. A small portion are turning to Sumar, which slightly improves its results after many months of decline. Podemos remains practically unchanged, below 5%. Voters to the left of the PSOE are deeply upset, but they do not fully believe that Sánchez is now a "warlord" or the most corrupt leader of the PSOE, as the propaganda of the small Podemos leadership claims, which already anticipates a defeat for the left and a subsequent crisis for the PSOE. On the sociological left, unease, perplexity, and disappointment prevail today. Abstention is the refuge. No significant exodus of voters from the PSOE to the PP is detected. Such an exodus is impossible when José María Aznar threatens Pedro Sánchez with jail. The movements are different. More than a million former PP voters have been leaning toward Vox in recent months. This shift began in October last year after the Valencia disaster and is becoming more pronounced now. Public opinion shocks are now favoring Vox, just as outrage over the effects of the economic crisis propelled Podemos to power ten years ago.

In Spain today, a future line of cooperation between the PP and the PSOE is unimaginable.

The Portuguese hypothesis is beginning to loom over Spanish politics. Let's see what has happened in Portugal. Three legislative elections in three years. The resignation of Socialist Prime Minister António Costa due to a corruption investigation that quickly fizzled out. An insufficient victory for the center-right in the last two elections and a rampant vote for Chega (Enough) in protest. Chega surpassed 22% in the last legislative elections, held last May, placing it ahead of the Socialist Party in number of seats. Solution: a minority government of the traditional right (the Social Democratic Party) with possible strategic support from the PS, which remains in opposition. The conventional right absorbs some programmatic points from the far right, on matters of security and immigration, but does not offer it access to government. Chega declares itself an alternative government. The PS, having become the third largest parliamentary force, shows itself willing to collaborate on the most important issues, such as the budget. This preserves the so-called "central bloc" of Portuguese politics and harmony with Brussels at a very difficult time for the European Union.

In Spain, a future line of cooperation between the Popular Party and the PSOE is unimaginable today. This would require the political liquidation of Pedro Sánchez as the first step toward a strategic reorientation of the Socialists. Eliminate Sánchez, who is holding out longer than expected. The PP's entire focus is now on that objective. They are delving into every angle of his private life. Now it's the turn of his father-in-law, who has since passed away. Last weekend, former President Aznar threatened him with jail. Meanwhile, Vox is capitalizing on the brutal erosion of the official political scene.

We're back to 2014, with the accents changed. The radical challenge now comes from the right. Vox is now the party with the highest voting intention among those under 45.