How to defuse the immigration debate

Immigration is on its way to becoming the star issue of the political fray. After a summer marked by a wave of xenophobia that peaked in the Torre Pacheco incident, the PP and Vox are vying to spearhead the fight against the government's immigration policy, at a time when irregular immigration is falling (-35.1%) as it hasn't in years. This is a dispute over one of the issues of greatest concern to citizens in an area where hoaxes spread like wildfire and are intertwined with populist proposals that are very difficult to implement.

The complex figure of irregulars

According to the most up-to-date data from the Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security, and Migration, as of June 30, 2025, there were 7,371,577 foreigners with valid residence documents, a 4.9% increase from a year earlier. This figure provides the most realistic picture of the size of the immigrant population in Spain. However, to these 7.3 million, we must add another figure that, by its nature, is impossible to specify: the number of people living in poverty in hiding. Official sources do not dare to provide any figures, but they also do not refute the figures from the Savings Banks Foundation (Funcas), which estimates that the number of foreigners residing in Spain in an irregular administrative situation could be around 700,000.

There is no such thing as an “invasion” of the south

One of the most repeated mantras by the far right is the supposed "invasion" of immigrants across the southern border, whether in cayucos (boats) via the Canary Islands or Balearic Islands (the former on the decline, the latter on the rise) or through Ceuta or Melilla. But the truth is that in Spain, irregular entries, not "illegal" because they do not involve any crime, represent a tiny fraction of immigration, which mostly enters the country through regular channels. According to figures provided by the government to La Vanguardia , 94% of immigrants—with residence permits, in the process of obtaining them, or without papers—entered the country through airports with or without visas (for the vast majority of Latin American countries, visas are not required) but, after reaching the maximum period of stay, have remained in Spain.

A visa that contravenes the law

The president of the Popular Party, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, announced last Sunday that if he comes to power, he will approve a points-based visa for immigrants, which will be conditional on filling job positions where there is a labor shortage or favoring countries with a more similar culture. This, from the outset, conflicts with current legislation. Pending the fine print of this measure, which was proposed in 2008 by Mariano Rajoy, also a Popular Party member, although ultimately never implemented, if it were a visa, that is, valid only for border access, it would conflict with the Schengen Agreement, which allows free movement without controls in the 29 European countries, plus Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein.

If the PP leader were to call residence and work permits visas, depending on the criteria used to implement his measure, he could be violating the principle of equality if he established first-class and second-class immigrants, which would hardly be constitutionally acceptable.

Expel to where?

In 2024, the government achieved the forced repatriation of 3,286 people—between returns (363), generally for irregular entry, and expulsions (2,963), mainly for irregular residence or crimes. This is a truly low figure, according to police sources, compared to all the expulsion proceedings opened each year: a figure that the Ministry of the Interior has been working to conceal since 2021. Where is the main obstacle? In the countries of origin, which make it difficult to return their compatriots. The government secretly charters deportation flights to avoid causing problems in the destination countries. The opposition promises to increase expulsions. What it doesn't specify is the formula to convince countries to accept more repatriations.

300,000 'papers' per year

The latest reform of the Immigration Regulations, promoted by Minister Elma Saiz, plans to regularize status at a rate of 300,000 people per year, thanks to the new text, which, in general terms, reduces the time required to obtain residence and work permits, allows for longer renewals, eliminates some requirements, and facilitates labor market integration. The most common way to obtain them is through authorization based on roots. As of June 30, 2025, the number of foreigners with a valid residence permit for this reason is 352,089, a 23.0% increase from one year ago. Family roots are the most prevalent and account for 67% (234,798) of the total number of people with roots permits. This is followed by educational roots (20%; 69,849) and social roots (43,636; 12%). The most common nationalities with permits through this route are Colombian, Moroccan, and Peruvian.

Why not all at once?

The government is currently far from certain about approving a massive immigration regularization process, as proposed by the Popular Legislative Initiative (ILP) that reached the Congress of Deputies last year with the support of hundreds of associations and NGOs, some as close to the Church as Caritas. The text has not moved forward due to differences among the government's allies. However, the executive holds the key to approving it through a Royal Decree—which does not require validation—as requested by Sumar. This was done in 2005 when José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero took office just a year earlier. In that extraordinary regularization process, the largest to date, 691,655 applications were submitted and 81.7% were successfully resolved: 565,121 people were brought out of hiding. Ministerial sources doubt its approval. In fact, with the reform of the Immigration Regulations, which has been much less publicized than the mass regularization, it is expected that 900,000 people will obtain papers in three years.

The alleged electoral fraud

Another hoax that frequently circulates online, fueled by the far right, is that the government is legalizing migrants en masse to win the votes of those who obtain papers. Neither the ILP nor regularization based on roots entails granting nationality. But no, the people who are being regularized, at a rapid pace, based on roots do not thereby gain the right to vote in general or regional elections (that would require amending the Civil Code). They do, however, in local elections for citizens of European and Latin American countries like Chile and Colombia.

The IMV hoax

Earlier this week, a hoax spread, following a news report published in a media outlet, about the PP leader's proposed ban on access to the minimum living income (IMV) for immigrants without a legal residence permit. The measure was misinterpreted. Currently, this benefit already excludes irregular migrants. One of the requirements is "legal and effective" residency for at least one year prior to submitting the application. According to Inclusion, 80% of IMV beneficiaries are Spanish.

More Frontex, more Navy

The PP and Vox also include among their formulas for containing irregular immigration a greater presence of vessels at sea in order to stem the number of cayucos (small boats) that continue to arrive in the Canary Islands, especially from Mauritania. Feijóo's party supports a greater deployment of the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, known as Frontex, while Abascal's party favors the Navy. Both formulas clash with reality. Frontex can only be deployed in European countries, as it is in the Canary Islands, but all it can do is provide relief work. A greater Frontex presence in Africa would be desirable to discourage these departures, but this requires an agreement with third countries. And in the case of the Navy, its leader made it clear a few days ago: "Let no one think that we're going to be fighting immigration at sea."