Everything on the 27th: Dollar, Cabinet, and Alliances; Espert and Folly; Ritondo for Menem?

All expectations are focused on Monday the 27th, the day after these legislative elections, which will be a turning point for a government that has lost the initiative and confidence that fuel and sustain it in this first phase.

It is assumed that the dollar will float freely from that day on: this is a condition imposed by the US Treasury and the International Monetary Fund, whose head admitted that she is working with the Trump administration to determine how aid to Argentina will be implemented and what the conditions will be for Javier Milei to be able to use the $20 billion swap. There will be no fresh funds freely available for Argentina, but rather support that will be, as has been reported, doubly conditioned on the approval of the Treasury and the IMF.

Milei will have to adapt to this new situation, whether she likes it or not. The exceptional nature of the gesture is such that the immediate precedent was the Clinton administration's desperate rescue of a teetering Mexico. The strategic importance of both countries to Washington is obvious, but it illustrates the magnitude of the support the White House is giving to a troubled Milei.

It's not free, of course, especially if this alignment affects trade with China, the main buyer of Argentine products along with Brazil. Trump has emphasized the importance of Milei's "reelection," without considering that she must first go through the polls on the 27th, for an administration that is running out of fuel and has been hit by the double corruption charges that have already entered the courts and the public imagination: Karina 3%, due to the audio recordings of the former head of the Agency for Disabled Persons, and now the Espert scandal, mixed with money from an alleged drug trafficker. Not to mention the Libra case, which also reaches the heart of power.

Reality kills fiction. And reality led Milei to ask Trump for help. The response, for now only potential, brought something new to the libertarian sectarian movement: they will have to open up the political game. External and internal conditions force them to seek consensus, broaden their base, and negotiate. Three areas that, until now, have been failed by the libertarian government.

These meetings with Mauricio Macri are indicative of the new attitude whose first steps are emerging in Olivos. The former president has shown his willingness to cooperate, but only after the elections. Macri's PRO has been unnecessarily hit hard by Milei—and by Patricia Bullrich. A blunder that spread to other potential allies. A behavior that came back to haunt him like a boomerang.

Macri must have remembered in Olivos when he had to drop Fernando Niembro as a candidate because he was targeted by a corruption accusation. The example was a perfect fit for Milei to do the same with José Luis Espert, who has become a leaden backpack for the libertarians, who are clamoring in unison for his removal from the list. Espert has given so many contradictory and fallacious versions about his relationship with Fred Machado, an alleged drug trafficker under house arrest in a mansion on the banks of the Río Negro, that they have caused an earthquake in the ruling party. Both Karina Milei and Santiago Caputo, as well as Bullrich and Francos, have asked, in one way or another, for Espert to leave the list of candidates. Macri also hopes for this.

Why is Milei holding out ? It was the President who, against all odds, put him at the top of the list, and giving in, under that flawed perspective, would undermine his leadership. He did something similar with Ritondo when a scandal erupted over the legislator's undeclared properties in Miami. Since then, the PRO leader has disguised himself as Milei's crusader.

Secondly, the prevailing idea is not to "hand over" Espert's head to Kirchnerism and, above all, to Grabois, who filed a criminal complaint for Machado's contributions to Espert. It remains to be seen how the electoral prosecutor's investigation into the inconsistencies in the accountability of the party that had him as its presidential candidate progresses. The Kirchnerist outrage in this case contrasts with the silence and denial of the proven cases of mega-corruption during the administrations of Néstor and Cristina: "Hypocrite! First take the plank out of your own eye, and then you will see clearly to remove the speck from your brother's eye!" says the Bible.

Third, the relationship between Milei and Espert is very unusual. A power insider yesterday declared himself without arguments to explain Milei's insistence on supporting the candidate.

Fourth, could Milei have handed Espert's head over to Macri? It would have been an important trophy for the PRO leader if he had obtained it to reorganize his forces, which will be significantly reduced in Congress.

The government must cross the Jordan River of '27 with the near certainty that it will lose the province of Buenos Aires, and that the final number of legislators will be subject to varying interpretations. The difference will be that today it depends on the will of others, and that the new ones will arrive dressed in purple.

Espert's taint is hitting the electorate of the Capital and the AMBA region the hardest. That's why Bullrich, who has seen this impact in the polls, is actively trying to differentiate herself from Espert, with whom she has old beef because, in the internal dispute with Rodríguez Larreta, the controversial candidate flirted with her but married her rival. Bullrich's involvement in the Espert case prompted an indirect response from Milei, who said in a report that she already has a replacement for Patricia at the Security Department. The minister hopes to appoint someone from her own ranks to that position.

In addition to the upcoming changes to the exchange rate regime, there will be a government reorganization. That's where we'll see how far the agreement with Macri will go. Karina's presence, along with that of Francos, who brought the former president back to Olivos, is suggestive. Macri always blamed her and Santiago Caputo for being the masterminds behind the PRO's humiliation.

The idea is to regroup forces in Congress and rebuild alliances with those who were alienated by the tyranny of the Libertarian administration's mismanagement. Macri would help in this task. One of the scapegoats would be Martín Menem, who would be replaced in December by Ritondo as speaker of the House of Representatives. The former president reportedly criticized inaction in several areas and errors in others, such as the single-minded focus on foreign policy, paving the way for Macri-supporting candidates to take over several secretariats.

The reshuffle following the departure of Bullrich and Petri won't be the only changes. Reports include the Foreign Ministry and the Justice Department. Úrsula Basset, a fiercely anti-woke lawyer, is vying for Werthein's place, or for Defense. She belongs to the younger Caputo's stable.

The other Caputo is also betting everything on the impact that exchange rate liberalization will have on prices and the performance of the economy, whose current paralysis is already worrying. Corruption scandals have a profound impact, especially on a government that boasted of being vaccinated against this resistant plague but was infected by consecutive cases.

But the minister is also aware that the lethal damage is caused by the economy.