The new inflation figure is known today and there is a warning of a rebound.
This afternoon, INDEC will report the June CPI, which is expected to be above the 1.5% recorded in May and so celebrated by Javier Milei's administration.
The National Institute of Statistics and Census ( INDEC ) will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June this Monday afternoon. Initial private estimates predict inflation of around 2% , which would mark a rebound from the 1.5% recorded in May and signal a possible halt to the downward trend observed in recent months.
The increase is likely driven by pressure from regulated prices—such as electricity, gas, and transportation —and the impact of seasonal items.
A preview came a few days ago, when the Buenos Aires General Directorate of Statistics and Census reported a monthly price increase of 2.1% in June for CABA.
According to the C&T Economic Advisors survey in Greater Buenos Aires, the CPI rose 2% monthly in June. Within this figure, the "Food and Beverages" category—one of the most important—showed a rise of 1.4%, after a low of 0.3% in May. Baked goods, dairy products, and beverages led the increases.
Meanwhile, the "Housing and Basic Services" section reflected the impact of gas and electricity rate updates, while "Transportation" rose again, driven by increases in bus and train fares. Fuel prices, meanwhile, broke the May decline and returned to a moderate increase.
Food prices continue to push up inflation in May. Photo: Orlando Pelichotti / Los Andes
The Liberty and Progress Foundation also projected a 2% increase in June, which represents a half-point increase compared to the official figure for the previous month. The consulting firm emphasized that, although this is still a relatively low level in historical terms, it could mark a change in trend.
Beyond the monthly figure, this Monday's INDEC report will also reveal cumulative inflation for the first half of 2025, a key variable for the tax system. This figure will determine the automatic update of the personal income tax (formerly "Ganancias") and Monotributo tax rates and deductions, in line with the provisions of the mobility scheme.
The May figure of 1.5% was the lowest monthly rate since November 2017, excluding the 2020 lockdown period.
In the first five months of the year, the CPI accumulated a rise of 9.8%, well below the figures for 2023. However, analysts warn that July could repeat the pattern of June, with variations close to 2% or even higher , depending on the evolution of rates, services, and regulated items.
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