The US proposes a 5% tax on remittances: Mexicans would be the most affected.

The Republican Party in the U.S. House of Representatives will introduce a proposal this Tuesday to impose a 5% tax on remittances sent from the United States to other countries, including Mexico, one of the world's leading recipients. According to U.S. media, the proposal will be included in a broader tax package to be discussed in the legislative session.

Although this isn't the first time a tax on remittances has been proposed, this new initiative revives concerns about its impact on millions of Mexican families. In December 2024, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance suggested a 10% tax to fund border security, while a 6% tax for the same purpose was previously considered during the Trump administration.

Direct impact on Mexican households

In April 2025 alone, Mexican workers sent $5.15 billion to their families, with an average transfer of $383 per transaction, according to figures from the Bank of Mexico. In the first four months of the year, remittances totaled $14.269 billion, an increase of just 1.3% compared to the same period in 2024, indicating a slowdown in their growth.

Gabriela Siller, director of economic and financial analysis at Banco Base, warned that if the tax is approved, there could be a temporary increase in remittances as citizens try to get ahead of the new charge. However, in the long term, a significant decrease in remittances is expected, estimated at around $3.2 billion annually.

A charge that already has a history

The closest experience to this type of tax has been in Oklahoma since 2009, where a 1% tax is levied on every $500 sent. However, this state accounted for only 0.8% of total remittances to Mexico in the first quarter of 2025, with $112 million, far below the $4.4 billion sent from California.

According to a Cato Institute analysis conducted during the Trump administration, a remittance tax would only be feasible if the flow of remittances remains constant for three or four years. Otherwise, people might resort to informal methods to send money home to their families, thus avoiding the tax burden.

Remittances, vital for the Mexican economy

Mexico was the second-largest recipient of remittances in 2023, behind only India, with a total of $64.745 billion, equivalent to 3.2% of the country's GDP, according to the World Bank. 98.8% of these transactions were made through electronic transfers.

However, experts from the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA) had already projected a possible decline in remittance flows by 2025 due to tightening immigration policies. If this forecast comes true, it would break a streak of 11 consecutive years of growth that began in 2014.

The discussion about the tax takes place in a complex economic context, with signs of a slowdown in the US economy under the current Trump administration, which has already begun to affect the dynamism of shipments.