While waiting for the swap, Luis Caputo calculates the dollars Argentina needs to cover maturities until 2026.

While markets closely monitor the evolution of the swap with the United States , the Ministry of Economy is calculating how many dollars it needs to guarantee payments until 2026.

The head of the portfolio, Luis Caputo , is facing a complex situation due to foreign currency debt maturities, while seeking to reduce country risk and reopen access to international financing.

The agreement with the US government, which could reach up to USD 40 billion , remains under political analysis after President Donald Trump conditioned its activation on the outcome of the October 26 elections. "I hope the Argentine people understand the good work Milei is doing and support her during the midterm elections," Trump wrote on his official account, making it clear that assistance will depend on political support for the government.

Faced with the negative market reaction— with Argentine stocks falling by up to 8% and dollar bonds falling by 7.2% —Foreign Minister Gerardo Werthein attempted to defuse the pessimistic outlook: he asserted that negotiations continue and that it would be "illogical to think that a rescue package would be halted due to electoral issues."

According to estimates by the consulting firm LCG , the most demanding outlook will not be this year but in 2026 , when Argentina will have to face higher maturities. Between October and December 2025, the Treasury will need around USD 1.2 billion , a figure that it will be able to reduce thanks to disbursements from the IMF and other organizations for USD 1.899 billion , in addition to the Treasury deposits in the Central Bank (BCRA) .

Even so, Caputo will need to raise more than $1 billion more to close out the year, which explains the expectations surrounding the swap with the United States and potential complementary lines of credit.

During the last quarter of 2025, the country will have to face amortizations of USD 552 million (USD 474 million with multilateral organizations and USD 78 million with “Others”) and interest of USD 1,495 million , of which USD 855 million correspond to the IMF .

Added to this is USD 1.15 billion from the Bonds for the Reconstruction of a Free Argentina (Bopreal) , which increases the total burden of foreign currency commitments.

Economist Leo Anzalone warned that if the funds available at the Central Bank of Argentina and the IMF's transfers are insufficient, "the government will have to resort to another source of external financing."

Among the options being considered are a new multilateral loan , a repo with international banks , or a dollar bond issue .

On Tuesday following Trump's address, sovereign bonds fell as much as 7% and country risk exceeded 1,000 basis points , although they showed a slight rebound on Wednesday.

This volatility reflects the market's dependence on the outcome of the talks with Washington, the main thrust of which would be the partial buyback of Argentine bonds to reduce risk.

For Lucio Garay Méndez , an economist at Eco Go , "the swap with the United States, if finalized before December, would provide financial relief. But the Treasury remains constrained by capital controls and the official exchange rate."

He even suggested that "a practical alternative would be to issue a non-transferable bill between the Central Bank and the Treasury." Although he clarified that this measure would not resolve the structural liquidity problems.

Caputo himself acknowledged that negotiations with the United States are primarily focused on covering payments for January and July 2026 , the most demanding months of the financial program.

"We've been working for months to guarantee these maturities. If we didn't default in 2023, when the situation was most critical, we won't do so now either," the minister stated in a recent interview.

The numbers justify the concern: USD 9,783 million in amortizations , USD 8,677 million in interest and USD 2,312 million in Bopreal are due in 2026.

Against this burden, disbursements from the IMF and international organizations would contribute only USD 4.48 billion . This leaves a gap of more than USD 16 billion that the government will have to finance.

Despite the difficulties, the Government maintains its commitment to avoid issuing or resorting to uncontrolled debt , while advancing a financing strategy with international partners.

Caputo's challenge will be to combine this prudence with the need to maintain market confidence and avoid pressure on the official dollar.

In the words of an LCG report, "If US aid were implemented, the first source of the fire would be extinguished, given that the dollar-denominated financial program for the coming years would be covered."

But until that support is realized, the minister will have to continue managing every available dollar with surgical precision.