Argentina and the United States are moving forward with a swap based on the 1995 Mexican model.

The secrecy surrounding the financial swap between Argentina and the United States began to dissipate. From Washington, DC, the president of the Central Bank (BCRA) , Santiago Bausili , provided details on the timing and reference model for the agreement during his participation in the Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank .

Speaking with Josh Lipsky , director of the Atlantic Council, Bausili said they hope to activate the $20 billion aid line before the October 26 elections .

“ I hope so ,” he responded to a question about the timeframe, adding that “ we have been working day after day to complete the documentation associated with the swap ,” anticipating that the agreement will be signed “very soon.”

Bausili revealed that the model on which the negotiations are structured is the agreement signed between the United States and Mexico in 1995 , following the Tequila crisis.

That USD 9 billion aid line was granted with the objective of providing immediate liquidity , under strict conditions and with specific guarantees.

"It was a short-term loan with collateral. Mexico had to deposit Pemex's export revenues into a New York Federal Reserve account as an automatic guarantee," recalled economist Sebastián Menescaldi of Eco Go .

According to Bausili, the current idea is to create an updated version of that facility , adapted to the Argentine financial framework and the objectives of the US Treasury.

The most sensitive point in the negotiations remains what guarantees Argentina will offer .

“ I don't know what kind of collateral the country could provide. YPF isn't fully state-owned, and the bonds hardly serve as collateral ,” Menescaldi said. Furthermore, the YPF case remains under litigation in the Second Circuit Court of New York for the 2012 expropriation.

Statements by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added another element to the discussion by mentioning the United States' interest in Argentine strategic resources , such as rare earths and uranium .

"China has imposed controls on its rare earth exports, and Argentina is rich in these minerals. I think they're committed to us," Bessent told Fox News.

Despite the debate over collateral, analysts agree that the swap aims to provide liquidity in a context of exchange rate stress .

"The agreement is a traditional swap line, like those the Federal Reserve has granted to other countries. They are temporary currency swap lines to address episodes of exchange rate pressure," explained Javier Okseniuk , executive director of LCG .

The US Treasury understands that Argentina's main problem is liquidity, not solvency .

In fact, last week Washington intervened in the local market by buying pesos to prevent the wholesale dollar from reaching the ceiling of the exchange rate band, an unprecedented sign of coordination.

During his presentation at the Atlantic Council, Bausili warned that the market is going through a "pre-election coverage" phase, with a strong demand for dollars similar to that seen before the 2019 elections.

"We've calculated that the demand for coverage in the last three months is equivalent to more than 40 M2 points, which is disproportionate. And the only one who can provide that coverage is the government," he explained.

The head of the Central Bank emphasized that the situation should normalize after the elections , provided the swap is activated and strengthens exchange rate stability.

The Ministry of Economy remains cautious, but admits that progress on the agreement with Washington is key to easing reserves and securing financing through 2026 .

Secretary Scott Bessent will be responsible for detailing the terms of the swap, which includes the USD 20 billion facility and an additional component of the same amount to repurchase bonds under New York law .

If implemented, this scheme would reduce dollar volatility and strengthen the BCRA's position before the end of the year.

"Beyond the guarantees, what will be interesting will be the conditions of use of the swap: whether there will be daily limits, whether it will be used within the exchange rate band or in times of stress," said Camilo Tiscornia of C&T Economic Advisors .

In any case, the Government is confident that the agreement will serve as an anchor of stability in the final stretch of the electoral calendar.