The Ibex runs aground

Trade frictions between the US and China and the cost of the US government shutdown are dampening the bullish momentum brought by the results. The Ibex, after three consecutive closes at the 15,500-point level, is once again pointing to limited changes.

Since the beginning of October, all foreign references have been practically on the Spanish stock market. The macroeconomic data vacuum caused by the US government shutdown has minimized movements in indices such as the Ibex. In every single session in October, the Ibex has closed with changes of less than 0.7%. The index began the month at around 15,500 points. Yesterday, it closed at 15,570 points.

The drought of major macro data in the United States has given way to a calendar that has begun to liven up with the first waves of earnings of the season on Wall Street. On a more local level , the Spanish stock market faces, in theory, more significant days. Investors remain on tenterhooks ahead of the final outcome of BBVA's takeover bid for Sabadell, which will be announced tomorrow, and looking ahead to next week, the publication of the first results of the Ibex members.

Until then, external reports include renewed trade friction between the US and China and a continued increase in the economic toll from the US government shutdown . The Treasury Department estimates that each week of closure could have an economic impact of approximately $15 billion. The shutdown enters its third week today.

The Spanish stock market has remained largely unchanged since the beginning of October. The IBEX erased its previous gains in the final stretch of yesterday's session. Today, the index is again pointing to limited movements near the 15,600-point level, prolonging its stagnation on the threshold of its all-time highs. Starting tomorrow, local benchmarks will gain greater prominence.

Banks are facing the final stretch of the long countdown to determine the outcome of BBVA 's takeover bid for Sabadell . Both banks are trading flat on the day before the publication of the final result of the takeover bid.

Energy companies are experiencing more significant changes. Barclays analysts today issued very mixed outlooks for the sector . While also keeping an eye on debt interest and oil prices, Redeia and Endesa are slightly behind on the Ibex.

European equities , with no major macroeconomic benchmarks in sight, are once again focusing on political developments. The new French government faces two votes of no confidence today, key to assessing its options for passing the 2026 budget. The French Cac index is stalling near the 8,000-point threshold, just as the pan-European Stoxx 600 is once again colliding with the 570-point mark.

The release of earnings is behind the most significant movements of the day in European equities. The financial statements released by German companies Sartorius and Draegerwerk boosted their shares by up to 10%. Investors also rewarded the results of Nestlé , which gained up to 6% on the Zurich Stock Exchange, and the Nordic bank Nordea . Analyst upgrades encouraged buying in Telecom Italia, and unwinding positions in the case of Swiss airport operator Flughafen Zurich.

Companies most closely linked to oil prices are trying to cope with the latest downward pressure from crude oil. Brent crude, which plummeted yesterday to its lowest level since May , is struggling today to halt its decline and secure at least $62.

The dollar 's renewed downward movement, fueled by the Fed's willingness to lower interest rates again, is giving way to greater stability in the currency market today. The euro remains at $1.16, while the British pound is trading near the $1.34 threshold.

The lull is extending to the fixed-income market. Bond yields are halting their recent declines. The required yield on US bonds has so far failed to fall below the 4% mark. In Europe, the German Bund yield is trading at around 2.55%, compared to 3.10% for the Spanish ten-year bond.

Once again, buying is shifting toward gold . The safe-haven asset par excellence is taking advantage of the prolonged US government shutdown and the dollar's renewed downward pressure to extend its all-time highs. Gold surpasses the $4,200 per ounce barrier.

Upcoming expansion.