Congress prepares for the second round of the 2026 General Budget

The clock on the organic budget law once again struck a silent but definitive milestone after the deadline for the Joint Economic Committees of the Senate and the House to vote on the amount of the 2026 General National Budget expired last Sunday, September 14th, and without even an official summons. Therefore, the bill will now reach Congress as the Government proposed, with a total value of $557 billion, without a single peso having been discussed or reduced in that first instance.

According to analysts, this omission has far-reaching political and fiscal consequences, since what will be discussed from now on will not be whether the budget is $557 billion, $547 billion, or $530 billion, as some sectors have demanded, but rather whether it is approved or rejected en bloc.

See here: Comptroller's Office found alleged patrimonial loss in Aerocivil for $5.67 billion

All this, while the new key date is September 25th , when the economic committees must decide whether the budget text will advance to the plenary session or be completely rejected. Before that date, not only will negotiations between the government and Congress intensify, but so will calculations regarding the possibility that, once again, the country will end up under a "fiscal dictatorship," with the executive branch issuing the spending plan by decree, as happened last year.

The government's strategy, according to several analysts, is to rely on the failure of congressional majorities, allowing the process to wear thin, and ultimately opening the door to a decree. This approach, although legal, undermines the legitimacy of the process and reinforces the perception that the executive branch prefers to avoid open debate on a fiscal plan fraught with tensions and limitations.

Hidden costs

Added to this is a recent report from San Buenaventura University that discusses a series of "hidden costs" that this project entails, which will have a very serious impact on the economy, both fiscally and in terms of debt management, the dependence on tax reform, and the limited room for maneuver that the next government will have.

The analysis, led by Julio Enrique Duarte, dean of the Faculty of Economics and Administration, raises several alarms about the sustainability of the spending plan, starting with the fact that 91.4% of the budget is already committed to pensions, healthcare, transfers, and salaries.

Read also: Lower economic growth, the price of getting out of the fiscal crisis

"This means that only 8.6% remains available for new investment, infrastructure projects , or social programs, which effectively deprives the state of its ability to respond to new citizen demands or promote strategic projects," he said.

Adding to this structural rigidity is a second factor: the dependence on a $26.3 trillion tax reform. The 2026 Budget only closes its accounts if Congress approves the initiative, something that at this point seems unlikely without fundamental changes. Factors such as the political climate leading up to the elections, union resistance, and pressure from the opposition suggest that the final revenue will be lower.

Likewise, if the tax system doesn't raise what is expected, the options are reduced to two: cutting spending or taking on more debt. It's worth noting that neither of these solutions is easy or popular.

“The third hidden cost lies in the deficit the project is already carrying. Even with the reform, a $12 billion gap persists with no clear source of funding. This gap is a reminder that, beyond the rhetoric, the state's accounts don't add up, and any scenario of lower revenues will require more severe adjustments,” they added.

Other news: ANI opens the old bypass while unblocking the Bogotá-Villavicencio highway.

The fourth critical element is the heavy debt burden, since the Budget projects to allocate $70.7 billion in interest alone , a figure that rivals the magnitude of what the country spends on investment. This means that a large portion of public resources are not financing new programs or supporting families or businesses, but are instead used to meet the obligations of the accumulated debt.

That said, it's worth adding that in a context of high interest rates, with the Bank of the Republic's monetary policy still at 9.25%, this area will continue to put pressure on fiscal space in the coming years.

A traffic light of possibilities

The report from the University of San Buenaventura proposes three possible scenarios for national finances, which function as a warning light, starting with green, in which if the full reform is approved, the deficit could fall to 3.5% of GDP and the debt could stabilize at around 63%, which would give the economy some breathing space and allow energy and transportation subsidies to remain in place without major adjustments.

In yellow, if the reform is partially passed, the deficit would rise to 4.7% and the debt to 65%, forcing a $13 trillion cut, primarily affecting investment in regional projects, with a direct impact on construction employment and the dynamism of local economies.

You might be interested in: Fashion from San Victorino and El Restrepo arrives at Times Square in New York.

"Credit would remain expensive, with rates falling only slowly, and subsidies would have less fiscal space, with the risk of gradual increases in energy and gasoline rates," the report says.

In red, the most critical scenario is that if there is no reform, the deficit would exceed 5.5% of GDP and the debt would approach 67%. In this case, the government would be forced to cut up to $26 trillion or borrow more aggressively, which would have an immediate impact on daily life: faster increases in gasoline, electricity, and public transportation prices, higher consumer and mortgage credit costs, and lower regional investment with job losses.

“For families, the hidden costs of the budget are not abstract figures, but concrete risks. A cut in fuel subsidies, for example, could increase the monthly spending by $20,000 for a household that consumes 50 gallons a month. A half-point increase in interest rates would raise mortgage or consumer loan payments,” the report highlights. Thus, the 2026 Budget becomes a battleground where not only fiscal sustainability is at stake, but also the legitimacy of the democratic process. The fact that it reaches Congress for $557 billion, without prior debate, is a symptom of institutional fragility and the government's political pressure strategy. DANIEL HERNÁNDEZ NARANJO

Portfolio Journalist