What a week Teté

First, there was the shepherd who multiplies the loaves and fishes. Then, the suitcase-gate. Third, the governors' snub to Javo for the Tucumán event. Fourth, news about Libragate. And fifth, Fantino 's "violated off" regarding Toto. All of this was the prelude to the 6-0 defeat that devastated "the best government in history" in the Senate. A week to forget.

It's true that some have a lesser impact for now—like the pastor and the memecoin affair—but the others are completely intertwined and could have been expected for several weeks if the government didn't react in time. Finally, it decided that the Senate defeat benefited it. This happened on Thursday. On Friday, we had the opportunity to ask about the events in focus groups in the interior of the country. Two conclusions can be drawn: 1) the climate for the government is not the most favorable , given that the issues involved are highly sensitive to public opinion (retirement, disability, Bahía Blanca, public works); and 2) discontent with the libertarian attitude even affects those who are inclined to vote for the ruling party. What's the name of the play? "The discourse against the caste is exhausted."

The government is going to veto everything except funding for Bahía Blanca, because we're at the stage of insistence by both chambers on the two-thirds vote. This buys time until Congress returns to address each issue, and gives it room to negotiate and defuse "traitors" (how expensive that's going to be!). And if all that doesn't work, it will resort to the courts to continue extending the deadlines. Of course, public policy matters are not subject to judicial review, unless a constitutional article is violated. If Congress reconfirms its approvals, the president could still fail to implement what he's ordered. In that case, the one who will be prosecuted is him for breach of duty as a public official.

What happens in these cases? On several occasions, presidents have delayed regulations or failed to implement approved laws, generating debates but without immediate criminal consequences. Criminal charges can be filed, although in practice, it is often difficult to prosecute these cases if there is no direct or concrete impact. In this case, the families of disabled people, for example, are not going to sit idly by. So the lion still has time to reach October 26th without being forced to surrender, and thus avoid compromising the fiscal surplus. But the matter does not end there.

There are two factors that can negatively impact the government's reactions, and which can also be antithetical. One is the electorate: as we've been pointing out for several weeks, one of the government's weaknesses is its lack of empathy/sensitivity. The other is the markets, which, when they see macroeconomic achievements threatened, become nervous and undervalue the libertarian revolution. Both elements can enter a virtuous cycle—the majority supports the government, and then the political noise that excites the markets clears—or a vicious one—there is noise on the streets, ergo in politics, and the markets take precautions. The ruling party was in the first scenario for a long time, until the end of last year, but in 2025 it has accumulated many negative situations, reflected in the almost permanent decline in presidential approval, as shown by the Government Confidence Index we analyzed last week. The point is that now it must calm the brokers, and that won't win it sympathy on the streets. Here begins the classic controversy of this phase of financial capitalism. It's happened to every president since 1983. The discussion has always been settled by whether the economy has had vigorous growth that calms tensions... or the story ends badly. P.S.: JP Morgan's recommendations don't help either.

This storm could be calmed if the all-violet alliance—with yellow cops on board—prevails on September 7 in the province of Buenos Aires , marking a favorable climate for October 26. There, Gordon Geeko's followers will sense a libertarian wave, one that a first minority supports despite everything, and that there may then be sufficient support for the much-vaunted structural reforms.

Two sectors are standing in front of the libertarian tank, as expected. One is the former UP (UP), which is now the FP (we don't know if "the Homeland is the other," but they certainly don't want to forget the patent on the word). And the other is the moderate opposition, especially with two factions: the radical-civic-Peronist-etc., the judicious one, presumably headed by Manes, and that of María Eugenia Talerico (who gave up on fighting with "the third way caste"). The more discontent with the "cuddly kitten" grows among JxC 2023 voters, the more opportunity those spaces have. And the newer the offer seems, the more attractive it will be, according to focus groups.

Luckily, Superman returned this week to save America! Or is it SuperTrump? It almost sounds like an old rock band.

*The author is a political consultant