Birth rate drops to 1.35: Why the debate in Germany misses the point

In Germany, only 1.35 children are born per woman. And now people are talking about parental allowance and income splitting instead of a disturbing global trend.

The birth rate in Germany has been falling since 2021 Pond5 Images/imago

It's not that bad after all, was how the expert began her statement. The birth rate in Germany was once even lower! The expert was Jutta Allmendinger, a professor of sociology, who was asked to explain for the Tagesschau website why only 1.35 children were born per woman in Germany last year. That was the lowest number in 30 years. But fortunately, for Allmendinger's argument, there were the devastating years after reunification , when hardly anyone in East Germany dared to bring a child into the world. The birth rate was even lower then.

That was a historic, exceptional situation, a dip in the statistics, and the birth rate in Germany recovered. Since 2021, it has been declining again, every year. By seven percent, by eight percent, and now by two percent. Allmendinger sees this as "more of a glimmer of hope." The desire to have children is declining a little more slowly. It's almost easy to overlook how dramatic the situation is, because even in the best of the last 30 years, 2016, the birth rate was only 1.59 children per woman.

The sad bottom of the table South Korea and its tiny success

The figure is an extrapolation: Demographers calculate how many children each woman in a country will have on average if the same or as few babies are born as in the year they are analyzing. For the number of people in a country to neither decrease nor increase – without immigration or emigration – the birth rate would have to be 2.1. But that is no longer the case, neither in Germany nor in any other country in Europe, not in the USA, hardly in Asia, and not even in many Latin American countries. Fertility rates are falling almost everywhere in the world, in many countries to values around 1.2 or 1.1. This means that if things continue at this rate, the population in these countries will be halved.

The famous and sad bottom of the statistics is South Korea. There, the birth rate was 0.75 in 2024. A slight increase , actually; it had been even lower. In a feature in the New Yorker magazine a few months ago, an author described the country: places where only two children attend school, villages with closed schools, the capital Seoul, where there are more dog clothes stores than baby clothes stores.

The author also describes how governments around the world are trying to increase the birth rate. Or even just understand why it keeps falling. It's a global mystery.

Except in the Tagesschau, it must be said. The fact that birth rates are falling worldwide is not mentioned in the report about the new figures from Germany, nor in the interview with sociologist Allmendinger. Both the report and the interview revolve around the familiar explanations. This isn't just the case in the Tagesschau; the entire debate in Germany ignores the fact that a development is taking place here that is taking place in countries from Brazil to Jamaica around the world. And in every single country surrounding Germany. One could investigate what's going on, which global trends are discouraging people from starting families or having more than one child, and why this development has accelerated so much since the pandemic.

What explains the German debate about compatibility?

Instead, people are talking about the compatibility of family and work in Germany. There are too few daycare places and parental allowances (too low). I don't want to be misunderstood: These are important topics, they just don't seem to explain the phenomenon.

Daycare centers across half of Berlin are now posting notices looking for toddlers. The drop in the birth rate is no longer just a number, but is evident in the groups; there's no longer a shortage of places. Will this soon increase the birth rate again? I can already hear the objection: Not as long as the quality of daycare centers is so poor. And I'd like to ask in return: So is the declining birth rate worldwide due to the child-to-child ratios in daycare centers?

Sociologist Allmendinger offers another explanation for Germany: Women have better job opportunities and work more there, but see that fathers are no longer helping with childcare at home. This could indeed be a key to an explanation that could apply globally: Women are no longer willing to do the heavy lifting associated with raising children alone. They would rather not have children, or have only one.

Allmendinger calls for higher parental allowances and an end to the splitting of income tax between spouses. Companies should also encourage fathers to take parental leave. The editor asks about France, where families with many children receive significant tax relief. Indeed, the birth rate in France is high compared to the rest of the EU. But even there, the issue is being discussed with concern, as the birth rate there is also declining, most recently to 1.62 children per woman.

Can we reverse this global, societal shift, which we have barely understood so far, with family policy? It would be nice, but unfortunately, it doesn't look like it.

Even in paradise for families, the birth rate is falling

This paradise for families even advertises its generous offerings. On an official website , Sweden even uses a phrase that Friedrich Merz would like to see Germans stop using: work-life balance! We learn that for a year now, grandparents, other relatives, or even friends of a baby's family have also been allowed to take parental leave in Sweden. For three full months, the state also pays them parental allowance. This can amount to up to 80 percent of their salary.

A family into which a child was born or adopted is allowed a total of 480 days of parental leave, approximately 16 months. From the child's first birthday, the child is also entitled to a daycare place. Fees are low, and later, school lunches are usually free. If a child becomes ill in Sweden, as you can read elsewhere, parents can stay home for up to 120 days a year to care for the child, at 80 percent of their salary. Here, too, the state pays. Of course, there is child benefit, and from the second child onward, there is a supplement for large families.

The regulations are a dream come true for parents. Parental leave, in particular, has changed quite a bit in Sweden; one-third of the days taken in total are taken by fathers.

What they haven't changed is the birth rate. It has been declining in Sweden for years and is expected to fall to just 1.45 children per woman by 2024.