Forecast from Index Radar: Technical Analysis: TUI shares remain a hot stock with risks

Analysts at Deutsche Bank Research have confirmed their buy recommendation for the travel group TUI shares and left their price target unchanged at €11. In their latest commentary, they particularly highlight the company's recent business figures, which the bank considers to be solid for the first half of the current financial year.

Deutsche Bank Research specifically praised TUI's operational performance, which was convincing despite a persistently challenging market environment. The company reported a stable performance in both revenue and earnings, which was due to sustained demand in the travel segment and successful cost control.

Against this backdrop, Deutsche Bank sees further upside potential for TUI shares. The analysts emphasize that the current valuation level could offer attractive entry points for investors. This positive assessment is based on the expectation that TUI will continue its operational recovery throughout the rest of the year and benefit from stable bookings.

The Hanover-based travel group's share price increased by around 2 percent overall over the twelve-month period, significantly underperforming the MDAX, which recorded an increase of approximately 8 percent. The share price fluctuated considerably between the annual low of €5.30 and the high of near €8.70, without sustained breakouts in any direction. The recovery phases after setbacks lasted on average more than three times as long as the overall market, suggesting a sluggish development compared to competitors.

The tourism company's risk profile is characterized by annual volatility of around 41 percent, more than twice that of the MDAX. Price losses of up to 33 percent and a beta of 1.24 underscore the strong reaction to market fluctuations, while the correlation of 0.58 indicates only a moderate degree of correlation with general market developments. Overall, the stock is characterized by above-average volatility, with pronounced spikes and longer recovery times after losses.

A potential price increase of almost 6 percent (average) is forecast for the next four weeks, with the expected range between €6.00 ​​and €9.00 being exceptionally wide. Europe's largest travel provider thus remains a stock with high volatility potential and an uncertain trend direction in the short term.

Bull WKN UJ4Q97 lever 4.9 Bear WKN UP6W89 lever 6.3

INDEX-RADAR.de 's forecast model for the next four weeks takes into account seasonal trends from comparable periods in recent decades, cyclical patterns, and the German stock market climate. We calculate the fluctuation limits ("forecast margins") from the current implied volatility of calls and puts; they are thus based on investors' expectations priced into option premiums.