Forecast from Index Radar: After sales shock: Thyssenkrupp share with extreme risk-reward profile
Thyssenkrupp is experiencing a dramatic day on the stock market. The share price plummeted by almost 10 percent after the company reported a 90 percent decline in adjusted EBIT. This is how the INDEX-RADAR.de forecast model predicts future share price developments.
Thyssenkrupp reported a drastic decline in operating profit in the second quarter, as uncertainties caused by increased tariffs significantly impacted demand in the German conglomerate's key business areas. Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) fell by 90 percent to just €19 million, far below the €146 million forecast in an internal company survey.
The company's share price fell by nearly 10 percent, reflecting investor nervousness. Thyssenkrupp, which also operates in materials trading and hydrogen technology, is heavily impacted by global trade conflicts.
Thyssenkrupp's steel division, in which Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky holds a 20 percent stake, recorded a loss of €23 million, compared to a profit of €68 million in the previous year. Maintenance-related outages also weighed on results in this division. Despite the challenges, Thyssenkrupp is maintaining its forecast for the fiscal year and expects adjusted EBIT of between €600 million and €1 billion.
According to a recent analysis by DZ Bank, Thyssenkrupp is in a transitional year. The weak quarterly figures highlight the current difficulties, particularly in the key automotive and steel sectors. In the short term, uncertainty dominates, while in the medium term, the successful implementation of strategic measures such as portfolio streamlining and spin-offs will be crucial to the company's success.
The Essen-based industrial group significantly outperformed the MDAX last year, posting a return of around 71 percent. After a significant annual low of around €2.80, a dynamic recovery followed, reaching a high of around €10.30. The stock demonstrated a remarkable ability to quickly offset losses, indicating high market resilience.
The strong performance came with considerable risks: The annual volatility was around 56 percent, almost three times that of the index. The maximum price decline reached 44 percent, and the stock took significantly longer than the MDAX to recover from setbacks. With a beta of 1.6, the steel giant is significantly more sensitive to market fluctuations and exhibits only a moderate correlation to the overall market.
A broad price range between €7 and €11 is expected for the next four weeks, representing a potential gain of between minus 11 and plus 29 percent. The technology and industrial goods company thus remains a stock with high volatility and a pronounced risk-reward profile. The forecast signals continued strong price fluctuations, but also leaves room for further price gains.
Bull WKN UJ2MD7 lever 6.3 Bear WKN UJ2H6T lever 6.3
INDEX-RADAR.de 's forecast model for the next four weeks takes into account seasonal trends from comparable periods in recent decades, cyclical patterns, and the German stock market climate. We calculate the fluctuation limits ("forecast margins") from the current implied volatility of calls and puts; they are thus based on investors' expectations priced into option premiums.
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