Way-too-early Big Ten basketball tiers: Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State primed to shine in 2026-27
The 2026 college basketball transfer portal is all but picked clean, the stay-or-go NBA Draft decisions have been made and now one question remains: Who is going to be good?
On paper, the Big Ten seems on the precipice of taking a slight step down after taking the mantle as the best league in college basketball last season. Michigan's entire fearsome frontcourt is off to the NBA, but the number of excellent guards that are also exiting stage left is mind-boggling. Purdue's Braden Smith, UCLA's Donovan Dent, Illinois' Keaton Wagler, Wisconsin's Nick Boyd and John Blackwell, Iowa's Bennett Stirtz, etc. are all gone, either to the NBA or other leagues. It's a big-boy list.
The path is clear for new faces, new stars and a heated race.
Consider this a first glimpse at strengths, weaknesses and the personnel for every team in the Big Ten. Before we know it, players will be back on campus, and summer workouts will be starting. These conference tiers provide a preferable way of contextualizing the outlook of each team.
- Tier 1 - Title contenders: Pretty cut and dry. I think these teams have the upside to win the title. Not just make the second weekend. Not just win three in a row because of a nice draw. Six straight, do-or-die wins.
- Tier 2 - Top 25 caliber club: These teams have accrued plenty of talent and should be safely in the NCAA Tournament field today, but they have a few flaws that could keep them out of the top tier.
- Tier 3 - Tournament team: These teams have built good rosters and could flirt with top-25 status, but let's be honest: they aren't serious title threats.
- Tier 4 - Bubble, even with a 76-team field: A Big Dance appearance is in the range of potential outcomes, but the NIT, the Crown (or worse) looms if things fizzle.
- Tier 5 - The basement: These teams have a slim chance of making the Big Dance unless something drastically clicks or they make a late splash in recruiting.
Let's dive in.
Tier 1: National Title contenders 1. Illinois2025-26 record: 28-9, 15-5 in Big Ten play.
Postseason: Lost in the Final Four to UConn.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F Jake Davis, C Zvonimir Ivisic, G Lucas Morillo, G Ethan Brown, F Zavier Zens, F Jason Jakstys
The scoop: Illinois has one of the highest floors in the Big Ten because its strengths travel every night. The Illini will be one of the biggest teams in the Big Ten, featuring a top-eight rotation that is littered with seven guys who are 6-foot-6 or taller. It will be the best-shooting frontcourt in the Big Ten, which pulls shot-blockers away from the paint. It will also be one of the elite rebounding squads.
Size, shooting and rebounding give you a chance to win every night, and there's beauty in balance. Illinois' entire starting 5 is capable of getting 15-to-18 points, based on the matchup.
Illinois may not have a lottery pick guard on the roster like Keaton Wagler, but it still has arguably the best personnel in the league. High-feel forward David Mirkovic is primed to dominate after a Big Ten Freshman of the Year-worthy campaign that was overshadowed by Wagler's excellence. The 6-foot-9 polar bear is a quote machine, and his game backs it all up as a big playmaker who can shoot, drive, rebound and pass. Andrej Stojakovic is back to find the weakest defender and put 'em in a blender again. Sharpshooting wing Jake Davis and the center platoon of Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic stuck around, too. Xavier's Jovan Milicevic was the only high-major center to make more 3s than Tomi Ivisic last year (50).
The guard play will determine whether Illinois is just a good team or a great team again. Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks is going to be the Money Man. The 6-foot-7 guard was one of the best offensive players in the portal, combining expert pull-up shooting with shrewd feel as a playmaker. Some of the shot selection was iffy, and the defense was an abomination at times, but Illinois can clean up those fixable things. If Vaaks can play clean basketball, Illinois will be in a position to win this league, and five-star freshman guard Quentin Coleman should be an overqualified fourth or fifth option from the jump.
There's a chance Illinois isn't quite as good as last year on either end, but the floor is just so ridiculously high because of the rebounding and the balance. It will just have nights where Keaton Wagler's knack for basically depositing every single shot will be missed.
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Cameron Salerno
2025-26 record: 37-3, 19-1 in Big Ten play
Postseason: No. 1 seed; National Champions (as if you could forget)
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F Quinn Costello, F Jalen Reed (recovering from torn Achilles), F Oscar Goodman, G Joseph Hartman, G LJ Cason (recovering from torn ACL, redshirt candidate), Wing Lincoln Cosby (recovering from torn ACL, redshirt candidate), G Ricky Liburd, G Malachi Brown
The scoop: Dusty May's new starting 5 can go toe-to-toe with anybody. Point guard Elliot Cadeau is back to set the table with wizardly dimes and an infectious snarl. The Trey McKenney breakout train has left the station. The big-bodied sophomore guard is a safe bet to lead this club in scoring. Five-star freshman Brandon McCoy will bring the clamps defensively from the jump, and Michigan's new-look front-line has some serious potential. 6-foot-11 forward JP Estrella is skilled, tough and plays so hard. Cincinnati transfer Moustapha Thiam is all of 7-foot-2 with the coveted intersection of 3s and shot-swatting. That stuff is cool, but Thiam can be a pro if the processing ticks up and he simplifies his game.
Cadeua-McKneney-McCoy-Estrella-Thiam should be one of the best lineups in the Big Ten, and May has more skilled size waiting to check in off the bench in Quinn Costello (6-foot-10 shooter) and Reed (a 6-foot-10 forward who can punish mismatches when his body doesn't betray him as it has in each of the past two seasons).
Michigan has three legitimately nasty point-of-attack defenders and real rim protection in Thiam, so the defense should be very good. I think you'll see this group continue to play in transition as much as it can, but this roster is clearly not quite as vicious on paper as a year ago. There's no game-wrecker like Yaxel Lendeborg or Aday Mara, who can bend the floor and create leverage. Plus, there are real questions about the guard depth while spark-plug sixth man LJ Cason heals up from a February ACL tear.
This cutting-edge coaching staff deserves the benefit of the doubt that it will squeeze every ounce out of this group. That's why Michigan is a deserved Tier 1 inclusion, but losing Juke Harris to Tennessee and Morez Johnson to the NBA Draft lowers the confidence level a smidge. That said, if you pick Michigan to win this league even after losing three potential lottery picks, nobody will argue with you.
3. Michigan State2025-26 record: 27-8, 15-5 in Big Ten play
Postseason: No. 3 seed; lost in the Sweet 16
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
- G Jeremy Fears Jr.
- G Jordan Scott
- Wing Coen Carr
- F Cam Ward
- C Anton Bonke
Top bench options: G Kur Teng, F Kaleb Glenn, G Jasiah Jervis, G Carlos Medlock Jr., C Ethan Taylor, F Jesse McCulloch, G/F Julius Avent
The scoop: Michigan State could very well have the best backcourt in the Big Ten. Jeremy Fears Jr.? Dog. Jordan Scott? Dog. Freshman Carlos Medlock Jr. will put defenders in a blender, and you can add top-35 freshman Jasiah Jervis next to 38% 3-point shooter Kur Teng, high-flyer Coen Carr, high-energy forward Cam Ward and now-healthy, 3-and-D wing Kaleb Glenn to give Tom Izzo a potpourri of off-ball options who do something a little bit different.
Fears is the skeleton key to all of it. The potential preseason Big Ten Player of the Year could lead the nation in assists again, although finding his new go-to pick-and-roll partner may be the biggest X-Factor for the Spartans.
Michigan State will walk into summer practices with at least 11 players who have a legit chance for minutes, but all eyes are on the frontcourt remodel. MSU will really miss Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper, who were cogs of the Spartans' top-15 defense and knew the scheme front and back after four years in the system. Can Charlotte transfer Anton Bonke get up to speed? He won't be as good as Cooper defensively or Kohler offensively, but he has to be serviceable. The 7-foot-2, 260-pound senior is a load on the glass as you'd expect, but there will be some iffy moments. For a 7-2 monster, Bonke sure gets blocked a lot when he's not Hulk-smashing dunks. His heavy feet can make him rickety defensively, but he's enormous, and big people move little people in hoops. If that doesn't work, Michigan State may have to give highly-rated freshman big man Ethan Taylor a bit more burn. His tools are obvious but the production is still very much a work in progress. Bonke has to be solid, so Taylor can develop in peace.
A brand-new center platoon could lead to some volatility for the Spartans. This defense may not be quite as stout as it was a year ago, but there's optimism this offense could be a little better now that Fears isn't the only guard who can dribble (I wish I was joking). MSU will rebound. It will tear it up in transition, per usual. It has more shooting this year. It has real depth to withstand injuries. It has more creators, which should help the turnover rate tick down.
Izzo's bet on internal development will work, but getting outbid on some of the more high-upside, transfer bigs it chased could be what holds MSU back from reaching the peak of its powers.
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Adam Finkelstein
2025-26 record: 18-14, 7-13 in Big Ten play
Postseason: None.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F Christian Collins, C Adonis Ratliff, G Jalen Cox, C Darius Ratliff, G Jadis Jones, G Aaron Hunkin-Claytor, F Joshua Hughes
The scoop: It's time for USC to make a jump. From a pure talent standpoint, this is one of the best rosters in the Big Ten. Eric Musselman wants to find the mismatch and destroy it. Rodney Rice and former five-star scorer Alijah Arenas can do that, but Rice's recovery from a painful shoulder injury will be critical to monitor. He's All-Big Ten good if he's back to being Rodney Rice again. Pass, dribble, shoot, cut and defend forward Jacob Cofie is also back after a dalliance with the NBA, and USC signed the No. 7-rated recruiting class, headlined by five-star forward Christian Collins and the Ratliff twins (Adonis and Darius).
USC also filled critical holes in the portal. Georgetown transfer KJ Lewis will add transition punch, creation and ravenous defense. Colgate transfer Jalen Cox is a heck of a backup point guard, who can shift Rice into a scoring 2-guard, if needed. UConn transfer Eric Reibe has a ton of potential as a 7-footer who can score inside and step out for a pick-and-pop trey.
A little portal, a little retention and a little high school recruiting is the recipe to win big, and USC hit all three notes.
You can see the vision in this Trojan group, which overwhelms opponents with size, depth and raw talent. It just needs to simmer.
I'd be stunned if USC doesn't easily make the NCAA Tournament, assuming it stays mostly healthy. And once you get into do-or-die games, USC has the size and guard play to be vicious.
5. Indiana2025-26 record: 18-14, 9-11 in Big Ten play
Postseason: None
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Darren Harris, F Trent Sisley, F Trevor Manhertz, G/F Vaughn Karvala, G Prince-Alexander Moody
The scoop: Darian DeVries was clearly sick and tired of being undersized and out-talented, so Indiana went into the portal and did something about it. The Hoosiers are primed to trot out a double-big lineup of 6-foot-10 Alabama transfer Aiden Sherrell and 7-foot-2 SMU transfer Samet Yigitoglu. Your bigs control your floor in the Big Ten, and IU has two good ones. At minimum, Indiana will have one big fella patrolling the paint for all 40 minutes. But the entire IU calculus comes down to two guys: Markus Burton and Sherrell. If Burton and Sherrell can transform into one of the Big Ten's best inside-out duos, Indiana can be a major factor because it has a little bit of everything else with this supporting cast. There's shooting here with Bryce Lindsay, Darren Harris and all three of Indiana's top-100 freshmen. There's offensive rebounding and rim deterrence from Yigitoglu, who is a mountain of a man. There's an athletic wing defender who can slash in Jaeden Mustaf.
All of that is fine, but it doesn't matter all that much unless Burton and Sherrell are dudes. Burton, while undersized, is a stone-cold killer. DeVries can build this offense around him. Burton is a crafty, paint-touch machine who could get his shot blocked three times in a row and come right back looking to destroy on the next possession. Fearless is an understatement. Sherrell is a key X-Factor, though. He's shown flashes of being everything you want in a big fella. Sherrell hit 27 treys last year at a 34% clip, and that pick-and-pop game will be vital. He's helpful on the offensive glass, in the short-roll game and as a rim protector. But can he be tough and repeatedly impose his will?
Ultimately, an awesome lead guard, multiple serviceable bigs and numerous role players who can shoot should be more than enough to vault Indiana into the top half of the Big Ten with room for more if everything pops.
Tier 3: Tournament team 6. Nebraska2025-26 record: 28-7, 15-5 in Big Ten play.
Postseason: Lost in the Sweet 16.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Connor Essegian, G Cale Jacobsen, G Taj DeGourville, F Damon Wilkinson, F Leo Curtis, G Colin Rice, G Jacob Lanier
The scoop: Size and shooting. That's the Fred Hoiberg special. Nebraska's new-look starting lineup features five guys with positional size and good to great shooting for their positions. It's hard to ask flamethrower Pryce Sandfort for anything more offensively after he shot 41% from downtown on 8.8 attempts per game on his way to All-Big Ten honors, but there's plenty more meat on the bone in Braden Frager's arsenal. With extended minutes coming his way, Frager could sniff 15 points per game in 2026-27.
Frager and Sandfort should be the 1A and 1B of this club, especially with an unselfish point guard like Utah Valley transfer Trevan Leonhardt entering the fold trying to get them shots. Plus, keep an eye out on Belmont transfer Sam Orme. The 6-foot-9 stretch 4 shot 40% from downtown last year with passing and post-up chops. He will play right away.
But this defense will be significantly worse. Nebraska's best two defenders (Sam Hoiberg and Berke Buyuktuncel) departed. Nebraska's no-middle scheme made a living forcing a ton of contested, late-clock 3s because it scrambled and rotated like hyenas. I don't think this group has quite the same athletic pop on that end. San Diego State transfer Taj DeGourville should pick up this defensive scheme quickly, but a healthy step back should be expected on that side of the court.
Good thing Sandfort is immune to missing shots.
7. Iowa2025-26 record: 24-13, 10-10 in Big Ten play
Postseason: No. 9 seed; lost in Elite Eight
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F Cam Manyawu, G Isaia Howard, F Trey Thompson, F Trevin Jirak, F Ethan Harris, G Jaidyn Coon
The scoop: Ben McCollum has earned real cache, but one magical postseason run guarantees nothing a year later, especially without every-down workhorse Bennett Stirtz. The player-development incubator is one of McCollum's superpowers, and it has to be running at max capacity for Iowa to reach its ceiling. Pass-dribble-shoot wing Tate Sage looks like a future pro; can he start showing more than just glimpses in Year 2? Big, rangy shooter Cooper Koch looks like he can be an impactful Big Ten starter for years to come, but is there more on-ball stuff in his repertoire? This Iowa frontcourt could be sneaky deep if intriguing, skilled young bigs like Trey Thompson and Trevin Jirak can make a surge after a full year in the system.
Iowa's seven returners can be stabilizers, but Iowa needs to go 2-for-2 in the portal if it wants to be a top-25 team. Iowa will be so much bigger with 7-foot-3 Saint Mary's transfer big man Andrew McKeever. It was too small last year and too vulnerable on the glass some nights. McKeever can shore up the trench-work on the glass immediately, and if he can ace this mentally exhausting system, he can really help Iowa as an interior finisher, secondary playmaker and rim deterrent. Twitchy Illinois State transfer guard Ty'Reek Coleman is another huge swing piece. Coleman was one of the best freshmen in the Missouri Valley, but it was on limited usage and he didn't get a ton of on-ball reps. He has a chance to be really, really good, but there will be some low lows and plenty of learning moments in a tougher league with more on-ball work. Iowa didn't break the bank to get Coleman, but if he can outplay his contract, the Hawkeyes could be a top-25 club.
8. Ohio State2025-26 record: 21-13, 12-8 in Big Ten play
Postseason: No. 8 seed; lost in the Round of 64
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: Wing Jimmie Williams, F Andrija Jelavic, G Curtis Givens III, C Ivan Njegovan
The scoop: Bruce Thornton is irreplaceable, but Ohio State looks primed to be just fine. Jake Diebler's ability to retain both sharpshooter Juni Mobley and burly forward A'mare Bynum is the initial pitch here. OSU could certainly get 25-to-30 points a night from that duo, and Mobley will be in the mix to lead the Big Ten in triples. Then you toss in five-star freshman wing Anthony Thompson, who is a shot-making, 6-foot-8 southpaw? And a quartet of playable transfers who hail from top-10 leagues? There's something here.
Ohio State finally has real depth with nine Big Ten-caliber rotation players. Cal transfer Justin Pippen provides a playmaking point guard who can defend, shoot enough (51 3s at a 33% clip) and shift Mobley to an off-ball, score-first role. Duquesne transfer wing Jimmie Williams is all of 6-foot-5 and can pass, dribble and shoot. Memphis transfer guard Curtis Givens III projects to be a bucket-getter for the second unit. Kentucky transfer forward Andrija Jelavic is a connective piece who can play the 4 or a small-ball 5 and bring shooting, ball movement and offensive rebounding. Ohio State got basically no second-chance points last year (9.9 per game, 29th percentile), but that should tick up if ex-Baylor big fella Josh Ojianwuna (2.7 offensive rebounds per game in 2024-25) can get healthy and knock the rust off after missing all of last year with a leg injury.
Six of Ohio State's top-eight players are newcomers, which raises the risk profile if they don't mesh, but the shooting, five-star talent and influx of depth should keep OSU afloat.
9. Purdue2025-26 record: 30-9, 13-7 in Big Ten play
Postseason: No. 2 seed; lost in the Elite Eight
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F Caden Pierce, G Luke Ertel, G Antiione West Jr., F Raleigh Burgess, G/F Jacob Webber, C Sinan Huan
The scoop: Purdue has been a top-12 offense for five straight seasons. If that happens again in 2026-27, just hand Matt Painter the Big Ten Coach of the Year trophy now and be done with it. But you can talk yourself into the idea of the Boilermakers. Omer Mayer seizes Braden Smith's usage and balls out. 7-foot-4 center Daniel Jacobsen finally surges. The Antione West Jr. prophecies are fulfilled. CJ Cox shows he has more in his bag than just pull-up jumpers and rugged on-ball defense. Freshman Luke Ertel cannonballs into the league with his feathery jumper and winning intangibles. Your choice. The options are endless.
It's all about role allocation for this group. Purdue coach Matt Painter is asking numerous guys to step into bigger roles than they've had during their times in West Lafayette. It's intoxicating to think about the potential range of outcomes, but there's certainly going to be some growing pains with the hierarchy adjustment.
On paper, Purdue has plenty of depth in the backcourt with five guards who can hoop. While it's fair to worry about the rim-pressure, creation and offensive rebounding, the 3-point shooting shouldn't be an issue for this roster. Defensively, Cox is a pest, and Purdue will be a little bigger on the perimeter to go along with some rim protection from Jacobsen. That's good enough to be serviceable under this coaching staff.
There's just a lot of what-ifs for this group.
10. UCLA2025-26 record: 24-12, 13-7 in Big Ten play
Postseason: No. 7 seed; lost to UConn in the Round of 32.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
G Jaylen Petty (Texas Tech transfer)
F Filip Jovic (Auburn transfer)
Top bench options: G Stink Robinson, G Eric Freeny, F Brandon Williams, F Joe Philon, F Sergej Macura
The scoop: You like your chances to win a street fight when you have warriors like Trent Perry and Jaylen Petty on your side. Perry and Petty give UCLA a potent backcourt duo that should be the lifeblood of this Bruins squad. Perry is that 6-foot-4 big guard who can score, defend and create a smidge. Petty is the fearless, pogo-stick leaper who is a little undersized and yet, just gives you buckets every single day of the week and twice on Sundays. Inside-out forward Eric Dailey Jr. is back, and he'll get a bigger piece of the pie with Tyler Bilodeau off to the NBA. Xavier Booker got a whole lot better in Westwood, and the Year 2 transfer jump should help him immensely.
Petty is the star of this portal class, but Filip Jovic should buff up UCLA's meh offensive rebounding, and Azavier 'Stink' Robinson is a Mick Cronin guard if I've ever seen one. He'll be licking his chops to pressure the basketball from baseline to baseline.
UCLA has good pieces, but it feels like a piece away from being a Tier 2 club in this league. Losing prized Baylor transfer Tounde Yessoufou to St. John's at the final hour is going to sting for a minute.
11. Maryland2025-26 record: 12-21, 4-16 in Big Ten play
Postseason: None
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Bishop Boswell, G Michael McNair, F Robert Jennings, F Rakease Passmore, F George Turkson Jr., G Kaden House, F Maban Jabriel
The scoop: Maryland is going to be better in Buzz Williams' second stanza. By how much, though? That's the million-dollar question. Double-double machine Pharrel Payne is still waiting for the decision on his injury waiver for an extra year of eligibility. If Payne gets the thumbs up, Maryland will have one of the most vicious frontcourts in the Big Ten. New Mexico transfer Tomislav Buljan ranked fifth in America in offensive rebound rate, and he will turn 24 years old before the season-opener in November. Having two grizzled, offensive-rebounding mavens in Payne and Buljan has to tempt Buzz into ripping the tarp off for a flex.
The Terps' offensive rebounding has to be a deodorant for an offense that may struggle to generate good shots and space the floor. Rising sophomore Andre Mills had to create so much for himself last year, so playing next to a set-the-table point guard like Arkansas transfer DJ Wagner should help. Incoming five-star freshman Baba Oladotun is more of a prospect than a Day One difference-maker, but the 6-foot-10 freshman wing should give Maryland some ginormous lineups — although his passive approach on the glass will, uh, not be tolerated. Being this big should help Maryland's defense sniff top-30 levels nationally, especially when Tennessee transfer guard Bishop Boswell checks in. He will be one of the Big Ten's top point-of-attack defenders from the jump.
Williams has accrued enough depth to play big or small, especially if rangy shooter Michael McNair can earn the trust of the staff. Maryland could have up to a dozen solid high-major rotation pieces, and there are a lot of legit athletes on this squad. That's not nothing. But who is the force multiplier? Who makes this thing hum? Can Wagner finally fulfill the five-star prophecies? Defense, offensive rebounding, athleticism and depth should get the Terps back into the Big Dance, but all of Maryland's top guards have posted far too high turnover rates in pick-and-rolls whenever they've been asked to be the man. That could be the Achilles heel that keeps Maryland from being anything more than just solid.
Tier 4: The bubble 12. Wisconsin2025-26 record: 24-11, 14-6 in Big Ten play
Postseason: No. 5 seed; lost in the Round of 64
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Jack Janicki, C Victory Onuetu, Wing Hayden Jones, G Zach Kinziger, C Will Garlock
The scoop: Wisconsin is losing 505 of its 548 pick-and-roll possessions after star John Blackwell transferred to Duke, and Nick Boyd, Andrew Rohde and Braeden Carrington graduated. But the Badgers, like usual, have back-filled as smartly as they could. Australian point guard Owen Foxwell will turn 23 before the season, and the lefty averaged 11 points, 4.5 assists and 3.0 rebounds in the NBL, hooping against the likes of ex-Michigan State bucket-getter Tyson Walker and ex-UCLA floor general Tyger Campbell. Foxwell is not as good as Boyd, but the 6-foot-1 veteran is primed to be a useful ball-screen manipulator (get ready for a million one-foot floaters) for a Wisconsin club that has so much shooting at all five positions.
Autry and Elmer are both knockdown catch-and-shoot assassins, and Elmer was also one of the best do-it-all defenders at the mid-major ranks. There's 3-and-D vibrations here at minimum, but Wisconsin believes Elmer has more in the tank as an on-ball threat. I'm open to that theory because the paint will be open due to the floor spacing that Austin Rapp and Nolan Winter present. For all the talk about this new-look backcourt, it's Winter who will be the Badgers' best player. The 7-foot senior is a fantastic cutter and pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop threat while running the floor like a deer. Mark me down for a 16-and-9 season from Winter.
But this Wisconsin profile has some understandable red flags. This defense isn't going to be very good. Structurally, Greg Gard's scheme leads to high-floor outcomes because Wisconsin coaxes analytically friendly shots and corrals every defensive rebound, but the personnel on this end is limited. On the nights when Wisconsin's 3s are dropping, the Badgers are going to be so dangerous, but can they score in enough other ways? This backcourt is clearly a notch below the Boyd-Blackwell, two-headed, fire-breathing dragon. Plus, the inexplicable, frustrating loss of promising big man Aleksas Bieliauskas — he made a questionable decision to transfer to South Carolina after starting 28 games — takes one more big body who fit the scheme so well out of the equation.
I was all-in on Wisconsin a year ago at this time, but a slight step back seems in the cards.
13. Minnesota2025-26 record: 15-18 overall, 8-12 in Big Ten play
Postseason: Lost to Baylor in The Crown.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Malachi Palmer, G Winters Grady, F Grayson Grove, G Nolan Groves, G Kai Shinholster, F Nolen Anderson
The scoop: The arrow is pointing up for Minnesota as long as Niko Medved is at the helm, and he's leaning on retention to spark a Year 2 surge. Minnesota was able to re-sign point guard Isaac Asuma, jumbo shooter Bobby Durkin and do-everything forward Jaylen Crocker-Johnson. That nucleus is bolstered by a five-man portal haul, featuring only high-major transfers. That's notable after Medved was forced to add a ton of mid-major transfers a year ago.
Minnesota isn't teeming in NIL money, but Medved was able to check off some boxes in roster-building, most notably pure, raw size. We'll see if 7-foot-2 Michigan transfer Malick Kordel is good, but it's understandable why he didn't play much last year behind Aday Mara. Malachi Palmer looks like another rock-solid addition. The Villanova transfer guard is all of 6-foot-6 and should fill Minnesota's 3-and-D void. The notable one is Kyan Evans, though. Evans was really good under Medved at Colorado State before transferring to UNC and, predictably, struggling in a new offense. Now, he's back in the Princeton-adjacent scheme where his cutting and off-ball movement should be maximized. If Evans can rediscover himself in the Twin Cities, similar to Cade Tyson, and the injuries don't pile up again, Minnesota will sniff the bubble. Medved's that good.
14. Washington2025-26 record: 16-17 overall, 7-13 in Big Ten play
Postseason: None.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F Wini Braga, F Steele Venters, G Parker Friedrichsen, C Mady Traore, G Tristan Devers, G Jasir Rencher
The scoop: Washington's buying power looks to have decreased this offseason compared to last spring when it threw big bags around at some high-priced free agents.
Quite a different story this time around.
With star big man Hannes Steinbach off to the NBA and five rotation players dipping via the portal, UW has to reinvent itself. Danny Sprinkle needs Wesley Yates to look like Wesley Yates again after an injury-plagued sophomore season. He's going to take a million shots next year. San Francisco transfer Ryan Beasley is a tiny turbo lead guard who can fill it up off the bounce and plays clean basketball, but he could be in hot water on defense in the Big Ten. Can LeJuan Watts be a post-hype sleeper? His value to UW skyrocketed even more after Bryson Tucker made the bizarre decision to stay in the 2026 NBA Draft. Watts was not quite tough enough to stick for Final Four contender Texas Tech, but his high-feel bootyball should be a staple of this Washington halfcourt attack.
Injuries played a part, but Sprinkle couldn't find enough answers for a talented roster last year. Can he elevate a so-so squad this year?
Tier 5: The basement 15. Oregon2025-26 record: 12-20, 5-15 in Big Ten play
Postseason: None
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Jasper Johnson, F Taylor Bol Bowen, G Jerry Easter II, F Pharaoh Compton, F Tajh Ariza
The scoop: Oregon has gone from zero two-way wings on the roster last year to like five this season. Buffing up the perimeter size and defensive versatility was clearly a major point of emphasis for Dana Altman. When it's right, Altman weaponizes depth as well as anybody. With nine or 10 guys slated to play real minutes, Oregon should come at teams in waves with all these big wings offering the ability to junk it up defensively with fullcourt pressure, switching man-to-man or some hybrid zones.
That's all well and good, but who is the catalyst? Who breathes life into all these ancillary pieces and gets them easy shots? Boston College transfer Fred Payne may need to be that guy. He put up 15.8 points and 2.7 assists for a BC offense that rated … 278th nationally. Can it be ex-Kentucky guard Jasper Johnson? I'm not so sure. That Kentucky tape was brutal, but maybe Eugene is the life-raft Johnson's career needed.
Oregon feels like one good guard away from actually being very good. If Payne or Johnson pops, everything else starts to make sense. Tyrone Riley IV can slash and kick. Arizona transfer Dwayne Aristode is an enormous shooter with physical tools that jump off the tape. Andrew Meadow is a terrific secondary option who shot 39% from downtown last year for Boise State and drives long closeouts. Taylor Bol Bowen, Pharaoh Compton and Sean Stewart can all be useful bigs if they have someone creating that advantage for them to go to work.
This roster hinges on Payne and Johnson, or it will be destined to hope the defense can create enough buckets and the athletes can get enough back on the offensive glass to stay alive.
16. Rutgers2025-26 record: 14-20, 6-14 in Big Ten play.
Postseason: Lost in the first round of The Crown.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
G Rasheed Jones (Coastal Carolina transfer)
C Christian Gurdak (Virginia Tech transfer)
Top bench options: G Kaden Powers, F Darin Smith Jr., G Jamichael Davis, F Will Sydnor, C Dorin Buca, G Lewis Duarte
The scoop: Don't be caught off guard if Rutgers is a little better than you might think. Tariq Francis was one of the top isolation scorers in the Big Ten last year, and Rutgers was able to keep him away from portal hounds. It also kept guys like Lino Mark, Kaden Powers. And Darren Buchanan Jr., who all look like Big Ten-caliber contributors. This portal class is also just rock-solid. There's shooting with Rasheed Jones and Darin Smith Jr. There's interior heft with Christian Gurdak and Dorin Buca, who hail from high-major programs like Virginia Tech and Kansas State, respectively.
It'd be a shocker if Rutgers was in the at-large conversation, but it won't be a pushover like it was a season ago.
17. Penn State2025-26 record: 12-20, 3-17 in Big Ten play.
Postseason: None.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
G Jay Rodgers (Central Connecticut transfer)
G Roberts Blums (Davidson transfer)
F Brant Byers (Miami Ohio transfer)
F Roko Prkacin
Top bench options: F Tim Oboh, G/F Francois Wibaut, F Jamison White, F Thomas Allard
The scoop: Mike Rhoades is leaning offense this offseason. Jay Rodgers was one of the top pick-and-roll navigators at the mid-major ranks. Now he gets a shot at the Big Ten. Penn State surrounded him with two dead-eye shooters in Roberts Blums and Brant Byers to go along with Croatian forward Roko Prkacin and returning 7-footer Ivan Juric.
Get ready for a hefty amount of Rodgers-Juric pick-and-rolls with Blums and Byers spacing the floor and Prkacin trying to drive long closeouts.
The depth and the defense is not anything to write home about, uh, to put it kindly.
18. Northwestern2025-26 record: 15-19 overall, 5-15 in Big Ten play.
Postseason: None
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F Colin Smith, G Aleksej Kostic, F Jayden Hodge, C Luke McEldon, F Ryan Soulis, G Phoenix Gill
The scoop: When you have resources like Northwestern's, your roster looks a bit like a mid-major All-Star team. It's a tough pill to swallow for Chris Collins, who lost 23-points-per-game scorer Nick Martinelli to graduation and his in-the-lab, fill-in (Tre Singleton) to Iowa State.
Sophomore point guard Jake West is a TikTok sensation, but don't be fooled, this PG1 can really play. He has to be one of the breakout stars in 2026-27 if Northwestern wants to compete. Bellarmine transfer Jack Karasinski should be West's top running-mate. The 6-foot-7 forward can shoot it and drive it, giving him enough in the toolbox to find answers in the jump to the Big Ten. Northwestern won't be small, especially when chiseled 6-foot-6 wing Angelo Ciaravino is on the floor. The Cats' presumed rotation should feature at least seven guys who are 6-foot-5 or taller. That should help with the aggressive post-trap gameplan that Collins and defensive coordinator Chris Lowery have in store.
Collins has only finished outside the top-100 on KenPom once in the past decade. He's significantly raised the bar at Northwestern, but the raw talent on this roster does not pass the Big Ten sniff test.
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