Way-too-early ACC basketball tiers: Duke, Louisville at top of 2026-27 outlook as intriguing contenders emerge
Duke has won 42 of its last 44 games against ACC competition in the last two seasons. That's the type of dominant program the rest of the ACC is trying to chase down these days, and it takes serious funds to do so. Louisville is dipping deep into its coffers in an effort to build a squad capable of unseating the two-time defending ACC regular-season and conference tournament champion Blue Devils. It wasn't alone. Miami and Virginia paid a pretty penny to build contenders this season, while rival North Carolina tabbed ex-NBA Finals-winning coach Michael Malone in the chase to get back to the top of the ACC pecking order.
Will it work?
We're about to find out. Summer practices throughout the ACC start in earnest this week, and the rosters are nearly set. These conference tiers provide a preferable way to contextualize each team's outlook.
Way-too-early Big Ten basketball tiers: Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State primed to shine in 2026-27
Isaac Trotter
- Tier 1 - Title contenders: Pretty cut and dry. I think these teams have the upside to win the title. Not just make the second weekend. Not just win three in a row because of a nice draw. Six straight, do-or-die wins.
- Tier 2 - Top 25 caliber club: These teams have accrued plenty of talent and should be safely in the NCAA Tournament field today, but they have a few flaws that could keep them out of the top tier.
- Tier 3 - Tournament team: These teams have built good rosters and could flirt with top-25 status, but let's be honest: they aren't serious title threats.
- Tier 4 - Bubble, even with a 76-team field: A Big Dance appearance is in the range of potential outcomes, but the NIT, the Crown (or worse) looms if things fizzle.
- Tier 5 - The basement: These teams have a slim chance of making the Big Dance unless something drastically clicks or they make a late splash in recruiting.
Let's dive in.
Tier 1: National title contenders 1. Duke2025-26 record: 35-3, 17-1 ACC
Postseason: No. 1 seed; lost in NCAA Tournament Elite Eight
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Cayden Boozer, F Cameron Williams, F Drew Scharnowski, G Deron Rippey Jr., G Bryson Howard, F Sebastian Wilkins, C Maxime Meyer
The scoop: Jon Scheyer's best player will be a veteran for the first time in his Duke tenure. Wisconsin transfer guard John Blackwell is a plug-and-play stud who can fill it up from downtown and slice to the cup with get-off-me drives. Blackwell headlines one of the deepest teams in America. Duke's backcourt is absolutely jam-packed with Cayden Boozer, Caleb Foster and jitterbug freshman Deron Rippey Jr. Duke has so many options at the wing spot, too. Dame Sarr will be one of the best defenders in the ACC next year with five-star Bryson Howard waiting in the wings.
Oh, and this frontcourt is just as loaded, even without Cameron Boozer. This is Patrick Ngongba's time to dominate. If he can eliminate the questionable fouls, Ngongba will rack up enormous counting stats to go along with his top-of-the-key dimes. 17-year-old Spanish phenom Joaquim Boumtje-Boumtje and five-star freshman Cameron Williams will get plenty of tick at the 4, with prized Belmont transfer Drew Scharnowski serving as the best backup center in the country.
Scheyer has loads of options.
Duke is a Tier 1 contender because it has pathways to being elite on both ends of the floor. Sarr, Ngongba and Boozer are all plus defenders for their positions, and Scheyer's already proven to be one of the sharpest offensive masterminds in college basketball.
Duke just has so many outs to winning ballgames. The one pushback could be that Duke doesn't have that top-shelf, unquestioned top-three pick like it had with Cooper Flagg and Cameron Boozer, but that could change if the tantalizing Boumtje-Boumtje — who isn't draft eligible until 2028 — starts to percolate right away.
Tier 2: Top 25-caliber club 2. Louisville2025-26 record: 24-11, 11-7 ACC
Postseason: No. 6 seed; lost in NCAA Tournament second round
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G De'Shayne Montgomery, C Obinna Ekezie Jr., G London Johnson, C Gabe Dynes, G Boyuan Zhang, G Isaac Ellis
The scoop: Louisville's floor is controlled by how well new point guard Jackson Shelstad and new big man Flory Bidunga can coalesce. Shelstad scurries up and down the floor with real pace, and his shot-making off the dribble can be a "get out of jail free" card for this Louisville offense. On the other end, Bidunga is the single-most switchable defender in the country. He's not tall, but Bidunga is armed with a 7-3.25 wingspan, which helps him play way bigger than he is. Bidunga defends on the perimeter better than he does in post-ups. He will be the front-runner for ACC Defensive Player of the Year, and this should be Pat Kelsey's best defensive team of his tenure, especially parlayed with ex-Florida defensive coordinator John Andrzejek getting hired this offseason. If Shelstad and Bidunga play up to their expectations, Louisville is going to be in the mix every single night.
Louisville's ceiling, however, is controlled by how well its highly-paid role players buy into doing the dirty work. Shelstad is more of a scorer than a set-the-table point guard, so who else walks onto the floor trying to make others better? Can Adrian Wooley be that trustworthy creator who gets Bidunga some lobs to keep him engaged on the other end? Can Karter Knox simplify his game and be happy as a 3-and-D, transition menace? Iowa transfer 4-man Alvaro Folgueiras could serve as a terrific blend piece for this group with his passing, shooting and overall skill, but some of the mind-boggling mistakes and silly fouls would drive Iowa coach Ben McCollum up a wall.
Kelsey knows he has to win big with this group, so he can't be rigid, either. This group looks different than his previous iterations. Louisville doesn't have the personnel to shoot more than 50% of its shots from beyond the arc like last year, especially when it goes double-big with Bidunga at the 4 and Gabe Dynes or Obinna Ekezie Jr. at the 5. It shouldn't play the "run around and chuck 3-pointers" gameplan with this squad. More confrontational drives. More trips to the free throw line. More offensive rebounding. More variety.
If that happens, watch out.
3. Virginia2025-26 record: 30-6, 15-3 ACC
Postseason: No. 3 seed; lost in NCAA Tournament second round
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Jurian Dixon, F Kalu Anya, G Elijah Gertrude, F Silas Barksdale, C Favour Ibe
The scoop: Retention was not cheap, so Virginia isn't going to be quite as deep as it was a year ago, but Ryan Odom's bunch isn't leaving its perch near the top of the ACC pecking order anytime soon. Your frontcourt controls your floor, and Thijs de Ridder and Johann Grünloh will take matters into their own hands to keep UVa more than competent. There's no reason why de Ridder can't be on the short-list for ACC Player of the Year, and Grünloh's skillset as a shot-blocking big man who can drag shot-blockers away from the paint because he's a threat from downtown is such a game-changer.
The backcourt is where a high-floor team like UVa can reach new heights. Sophomore sparkplug Chance Mallory and senior Sam Lewis are the top dawgs in that department. Mallory is a firecracker who is instant offense. Lewis should shine with the Year 2 transfer jump. The 6-6 guard is a polished three-level scorer who plays with an edge/snarl and will get even more usage this year. Losing the shot-making from Jacari White and Malik Thomas will sting, but Virginia back-filled with two big shooters who have some semblance of on-ball utility in Christian Harmon (81 3s at a 35% clip) and Jurian Dixon (63 3s at a 38% clip). Those are Day One, rotation players.
Odom's bet on balance, skilled size and shooting is exactly what you want these days, although it's fair to wonder if this group has enough athleticism to go toe-to-toe with some of the SEC freakshow rosters it could run up against in the NCAA Tournament. It'll miss the eraser, Ugonna Onyenso, some nights.
We'll cross that bridge when we get there.
Just mark me down for another 13 or 14 wins in the ACC, at minimum.
4. Miami2025-26 record: 26-9, 13-5 in ACC play
Postseason: No. 7 seed; lost in NCAA Tournament second round
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F DeSean Goode, G Nick Dorn, G Brent Bland, G Quin Berger, F Marcus Allen
The scoop: There are so many finesse rosters that rely more on skill than athleticism in the ACC, which makes the smashmouth basketball that Miami plays stick out in all the best ways. Somto Cyril and his reported 7-foot-7 wingspan — which rivals ex-Michigan star Aday Mara — is Miami's new monster big man, and Canes coach Jai Lucas paired him with dynamic paint-touch machine, Acaden Lewis, to form an intriguing pick-and-roll duo. Miami will miss Malik Reneau's instant offense, but returning sophomore Shelton Henderson will be ready for even more after averaging 13.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.1 steals as a true freshman. Henderson, affectionately, plays basketball like a rabid dawg. He will send multiple defenders into the fourth row with his bulldozing drives.
The Lewis-Henderson-Cyril trio should be one of the best three-man units in the ACC, and Miami can pivot between big and small lineups at a drop of a hat thanks to the versatility of forwards like top-20 freshman Caleb Gaskins and Robert Morris transfer DeSean Goode. Both Indiana transfer Nick Dorn and St. Peter's transfer Brent Bland can provide valuable floor spacing, and do not be surprised if sophomore Dante Allen takes another serious step in the right direction as a no-nonsense, two-way player.
The best version of Miami should dominate the paint on both ends, just the way Lucas likes it. He's already skyrocketed up the list of my favorite coaches in the ACC, but he is heavily indexed on Lewis being fantastic. If he gets hurt or struggles mightily, Miami could underwhelm. But I wouldn't bet on it.
5. North Carolina2025-26 record: 24-9, 12-6 ACC
Postseason: No. 6 seed; lost in NCAA Tournament first round
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F Alex Samodurov, G/F Maximo Adams, G Jaydon Young, G Isaiah Denis, G Kevin Thomas, F Cade Bennerman
The scoop: Michael Malone's first roster won't jump off the page at you, but UNC has a chance to be competitive, even though the ceiling was lowered when star big man Henri Veesaar chose to stay in the 2026 NBA Draft. The guards have to be the strength of this team. UNC gets some quick-twitch rim pressure from Terrence Brown, some jumbo creation from 6-foot-9 Neo Avdalas and the smooth off-movement shooting from Matt Able.
If that trio isn't dialed in, just put a fork in 'em now.
UNC got boxed into chasing the international market to restock its frontcourt, but Malone did a nice job of landing 7-foot shot-blocker and rim-runner Sayon Keita from FC Barcelona and 21-year-old Alex Samodurov out of the EuroLeague. Keita is dripping with upside, and Samodurov should slot right into this rotation as a 6-foot-11 forward who can deck it on long closeouts and play in transition. Stretch 4 Jarin Stevenson and bucket-getting freshman Maximo Adams should round out a top-seven rotation that has plenty of skilled size and length.
The reality is there are still so many questions about this personnel on both ends. Do any of these guards want to be elite defenders? UNC's frontcourt doesn't have a lot of bricks in its britches, either. Keita and Samodurov are both in the 220-pound range. That may not scale up against the brutally physical teams at the top of the pecking order.
This group just doesn't pass the sniff test as a legit national championship contender, but Avdalas and Able can mask some of the concerns if they both play like pros.
2026 NBA Mock Draft: Jazz take Caleb Wilson with No. 2 pick; Darryn Peterson slips to Grizzlies at No. 3
David Cobb
2025-26 record: 19-13 overall, 8-10 ACC
Postseason: None
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Jaylen Curry, F Kuol Atak, F Musa Sagnia, G Ethan Copeland, F Sin'Cere Jones, F Solomon Davis
The scoop: Virginia Tech is in a sneaky-good spot, even after losing the talented Neo Avdalas to UNC. You could make the case that retaining point guard Ben Hammond and warrior forward Amani Hansberry means Virginia Tech kept its two best players from ACC play last year. Hammond and Hansberry are also wired to be ridiculously competitive, which you want to invest in and could lead to some high-floor outcomes.
The portal class is more serviceable than spectacular, but Virginia Tech could be one of the better offensive-rebounding teams in the league with Hansberry (10.9 offensive rebound rate, 92nd percentile) and San Diego State transfer Miles Heide (12.9 offensive rebound rate, 96th percentile) on the floor together. It added a little shooting (Copeland and Atak), size (Sagnia) and on-ball juice (Curry, Elohim), too.
I worry about Virginia Tech scaling up against the top ACC dawgs, but the guard play and the rebounding edge should help the Hokies win the games it's supposed to.
That can get you into the Big Dance.
Tier 4: The bubble 7. NC State2025-26 record: 20-14, 10-8 ACC
Postseason: No. 11 seed; lost in NCAA Tournament First Four
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Darius Adams, G RJ Keene, F Zymicah Wilkins, G Kingston Whitty, G Comeh Emuobor
The scoop: New NC State coach Justin Gainey has a heavy mid-major flavor with his first Wolfpack roster, but a lot of these additions look like good evaluations. NC State seems primed to lean heavily into a high rate of ball screens to weaponize Preston Edmead, Christian Hammond and Darius Adams, who all rated in the 79th percentile or higher in pick-and-roll efficiency a year ago. Then you toss in Paul McNeil (a professional net-shredder) and stretch 4, Eemeli Yalaho (40% from 3-point range on 4.0 attempts)? There should be space for these creators to, well, create. But it's fair to wonder just how much rim pressure this group can generate. It could be an awful lot of jump-shot roulette, and there isn't a ton of high-level athletes on this squad to dominate the offensive glass.
Gainey is a well-respected defensive coach who has the personnel to be OK. I'd expect NC State to try to funnel everything toward shot-swatting big man Kyle Evans and hope one of the best shot-blockers in the nation can keep doing his thing. But again, the lack of springy athletes is going to rear its ugly head once or twice.
NC State will be competent. Nothing more, nothing less.
8. Clemson2025-26 record: 24-11, 12-6 ACC.
Postseason: No. 8 seed; lost in NCAA Tournament first round
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Zac Foster (recovering from torn ACL), F Carter Welling (recovering from torn ACL), F Chase Thompson, G Harris Reynolds, F Will Stevens, F Dallas Thomas, F Trent Steinour
The scoop: Clemson always recruits high-character transfers who fit the scheme very well. This spring was no exception. David Fuchs and Dylan Faulkner should get right to work in this scheme that loves to use post-ups to attack mismatches. It'll be hard to bring double teams with knockdown floor-spacers like Liutauras Lelevicius (38% on 3.6 attempts) and Cole Certa (37% on 7.1 attempts) on the floor together.
But Clemson can't be considered a no-doubt NCAA Tournament team without a healthy Zac Foster and Carter Welling. When healthy, Welling is the best big man on this team, but he tore his ACL in the ACC Tournament and could miss the entire year. Foster, a dynamic sophomore guard who has the wiggle that this roster so desperately needs, is also recovering from a torn ACL, although his timeline is a few months ahead of Welling's. If Foster and Welling are back by February, Clemson will be a completely different (and way better) team.
This roster currently has creation questions, athleticism deficiencies and very little rim protection on paper, but maybe Brad Brownell has some tricks up his sleeve on the player-development front.
9. Florida State2025-26 record: 18-15, 10-8 ACC
Postseason: None
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G AJ Swinton, F Cooper Schwieger, G Martay Barnes, G Brandon Bass Jr., G Collin Paul
The scoop: Luke Loucks is betting on himself to resuscitate talented perimeter weapons like Mizzou transfer point guard Anthony Robinson II and Cincinnati transfer wing Shon Abaev. Those are the two X-Factors if Florida State wants to exceed expectations for the second year in a row. When he's right, Robinson is a hellacious defender and dynamic pick-and-roll creator with All-ACC potential. Although Abaev's freshman year at Cincinnati was a train wreck, the former prized southpaw recruit still walks onto the floor thinking he can score on anybody and everybody. Can he step into the Lajae Jones role and thrive?
While the shooting in this backcourt is a little sketchy, the defense should be good enough. Colorado transfer Sebastian Rancik is all of 6-11 and defended potential No. 1 pick, AJ Dybantsa, as well as anybody. Robinson, Rancik and massive freshman center Marcis Ponder should form a defensive nucleus that's stiffer than what FSU was trotting out last year.
Loucks' proof of concept was established last year, but that doesn't mean a whole lot when you have to flip the roster on its head with 10 new players. This group strikes me as a bit of a mercurial one, capable of clunkers and a gem or two. Dealer's choice.
10. SMU2025-26 record: 20-14, 8-10 ACC
Postseason: No. 11 seed; lost in NCAA Tournament First Four
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F Nic Codie, F Johan Munch, G Jacob Patrick, G Cam Lomax, F Nigel Walls, F Billy White III, G Gehrig Normand
The scoop: Fasten the seatbelts for the Jaden Toombs breakout. The sophomore big man has all the tools to be extremely productive in Year 2, especially now that high-volume offensive weapons like Boopie Miller and Jaron Pierre Jr. have departed. Tulane transfer Rowan Brumbaugh should assimilate into the pick-and-roll game with Toombs nicely. Brumbaugh's offensive game is super polished. He should lead this team in scoring, usage and the ilk.
But there's a lot of conjecture with this roster. North Texas transfer David Terrell Jr. can defend and stuff the stat sheet, but can the jumper ever come along? What will Jaylin Stewart do with the most opportunity of his career after biding his time as a role player while UConn chased banners? What's the sophomore surge look like for Jermaine O'Neal Jr.?
SMU's defense should have a chance to be serviceable if Terrell is chasing the opposing lead guard, Stewart shadows big wings and Codie or Toombs are cleaning it up in the paint.
Frankly, SMU's talent was at a lot higher level last year and that turned into a No. 11 seed.
11. Syracuse2025-26 record: 15-17 overall, 6-12 ACC
Postseason: None
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F Francis Folefac, G Kiyan Anthony, F Mark Morano Mahmutovic, C Abdramane Siby, G Ryan Moesch, C Tasman Goodrick
The scoop: New Syracuse coach Gerry McNamara is all-in on size. Syracuse's projected starting backcourt all checks in at the 6-5 neighborhood, and that's the same for 10 of the top-11 players in the rotation.
Can Syracuse weaponize that size? Temple transfer Aiden Tobiason and Siena transfer Gavin Doty seemed poised to be the top-two offensive options, but scoring in the halfcourt may be a bit of a challenge for this group with a non-shooter potentially starting at both point guard (Dual) and center (Wilson or Abdramane Siby). Offensive rebounding and turning defense into offense will be a massive priority for this long-armed group. Syracuse should be switchable, mobile and versatile defensively, especially when some combination of Francis Folefac, Sadiq White Jr. and Luke Wilson are on the floor together at the 4 and 5.
McNamara only played five warriors in Siena's near-upset of Duke in the NCAA Tournament last March, but I expect this to be a deeper rotation that tries to use its depth to make opponents very uncomfortable defensively.
Syracuse has athletes and will play hard, but it feels a year away from being a true factor in the league.
Tier 5: The basement 12. Boston College2025-26 record: 11-20, 4-14 ACC
Postseason: None
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Jacob Furphy, G Armoni Zeigler, F Andrija Bukumirović, F Colby Duggan, C Aly Tounkara, G JB Frankel
The scoop: You don't want to get too over your skis, but there should be legit reason for optimism for Boston College under new sharp offensive mastermind, Luke Murray. The roster is in wildly good shape for the BC standard with positional size and shooting at the forefront of this blueprint.
It's boring, but Boston College just has a lot of good players, even if they haven't all proven it at the high-major ranks. Murray should be able to go 10 deep if he wants. Montana transfer Money Williams was one of the top scorers/creators in the portal. I'd be stunned if he not productive. Merrimack transfer Ernest Shelton was one of the top movement shooters in the portal. Hope he's ready to fly around screens at an ungodly rate. Jacob Furphy and Zak Smrekar have been standouts at the international level in the past and should get major tick. Luke Hunger's post-ups and Aly Tounkara's rim protection should form a serviceable platoon at the 5-spot, and Boston College should get the best version of Charleston transfer Colby Duggan, who finally gets a full, healthy offseason, and fits the vibe of a movement shooter and high-feel cutter/playmaker. Andrija Bukumirović, Armani Zeigler and Brandon Benjamin are real-deal pieces, too. Depth won't be a problem at all.
Turnovers will be a stumbling block, especially in this execution/pass-heavy scheme, and it's hard to envision this group being awesome defensively, but balance, depth, size and good coaching will make BC a tough out.
It's time to be bullish on the future of Boston College basketball. What a sentence.
13. Pitt2025-26 record: 13-20 overall, 5-13 ACC
Postseason: None
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Jonathan Powell, F Chase Foster, F Timofei Rudovskii, F Dominique Diomande, F Ibrahim Souare, G Jermal Jones, G Colin Hawkins, G Macari Moore
The scoop: The Nait George-Baye Ndongo tandem is reunited! Hang the banner. The senior point guard-big man duo knows the ACC far too well, and this team's ceiling will be determined by just how good those two guys are. Are they finished products? If so, Pitt is probably rudderless. But if George can find finish at the rim more effectively and cut down his turnover rate, there's enough creation and pull-up shooting to be serviceable. A similar script follows Ndongo. There's more meat on the bone for the big man, who averaged an empty-calorie 12 and 8, while shooting just 33% on hook shots. He has to improve his touch around the basket to be the best version of himself.
George, Ndongo and Mighty are all not good shooters for their respective positions, so former five-star Jalil Bethea is shaping up to be a serious X factor. If he can find his form after two up-and-down years at Alabama, Pitt could reap the rewards of this buy-low move. But Bethea's feel for the game was a major issue last year. Maybe more minutes and more reps can shore that stuff up.
There's enough depth here for Pitt to be improved this year (Charleston Southern transfer A'lahn Sumler is a sharp eval), but this group will go as far as the George-Bethea-Ndongo trio takes it. Will anyone be surprised if that means Pitt is 16-16 and No. 79 on KenPom?
14. Stanford2025-26 record: 20-13, 9-9 ACC
Postseason: Lost in the first round of The Crown.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: C Austin Maurer, G Elias Obenyah, G Isaiah Rogers, F Drew Anderson, F Evan Stinson, F Kristers Skrinda
The scoop: The portal isn't going to ever be a big part of the calculus for a high-academic school like Stanford, but Kyle Smith's evaluations may be his superpower. With Ebuka Okorie off to the NBA Draft, Stanford had one heck of a sell for freshmen guards. Stanford is primed to open the door for five four-star freshmen to play. Skilled, shot-making guard Julius Price and 3-and-D wing Aziz Olajuwon are expected to get real tick, with jumbo set-the-table point guard Elias Obenyah and bucket-getter Isaiah Rogers mixing into this backcourt recipe alongside Delaware transfer Christian Bliss.
Smith smartly surrounded the youngsters with quietly good frontcourt room. Junior big man Aidan Cammann is a tank hiding in plain sight, and Seattle U transfer Austin Maurer is a shrewd grab. If you can go toe-to-toe with ex-Gonzaga superstar Graham Ike, you can play in the ACC. Maurer and Cammann is sneakily one of the best center platoons in the ACC, which raises the floor for Stanford.
Spawning another Okorie-like season feels a bit too rich, but Stanford will likely outplay expectations again. There are no seniors in this rotation, so if Smith can retain this entire young crew, Stanford will be in the mix to make a jump ... in 2027-28. This group feels like a year away.
15. Notre Dame2025-26 record: 13-18 overall, 4-14 ACC
Postseason: None
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F Bryce Dortch, G Logan Imes, G Devin Brown, F Tommy Ahneman, F Yoro Diallo, G Jonathan Sanderson
The scoop: Notre Dame coach Micah Shrewsberry (torn Achilles recovery) has a tough gig these days, but he rebounded as well as you could realistically expect after losing his best three players (Jalen Haralson, Markus Burton and Cole Certa) to portal paydays. Notre Dame will have one of the oldest starting lineups in the ACC. Gonzaga transfer point guard Braeden Smith, Penn transfer Ethan Roberts and Winthrop transfer big man Logan Duncomb — who started at nearby Indiana — are all entering their fifth or sixth year of college hoops due to earlier redshirts.
A pass-first point guard like Smith should have plenty of options with both Roberts and Braeden Shrewsberry flying around screens, Duncomb offering a post-up hub and toolsy forward Brady Koehler getting busy in Year 2.
But the lack of athleticism is obvious. There's not a lot of twitch on this roster. The Irish's starting backcourt has combined for one dunk … in their collegiate careers. Foot and leg injuries have sapped some of Duncomb's vertical explosiveness, plus the bench mob is vastly unproven.
Shrewsberry will have to pull some serious strings to get this under-resourced squad to .500 in ACC play.
16. Cal2025-26 record: 22-12, 9-9 ACC
Postseason: Lost in the second round of the NIT
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: C Nicolas Mitrovic, F Amier Ali, G Jovani Ruff, F Mantas Kocanas, F Sammie Yeanay, C Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut, G Gabriel Sularski
The scoop: A similar script keeps playing out for Mark Madsen. He buys low on transfers who haven't played massive roles, lets them cook, loses them in the portal and starts over with the same plan.
Here we go again.
Justin Pippen and Dai Dai Ames exited stage left for paychecks from Ohio State and Tennessee, respectively, and in comes high-major transfers like two-way point guard Jordan Ross, sniper Nojus Indrusaitis, big wing Amier Ali and the high-flying Jake Wilkins (Dominique Wilkins is Jake's pops; ever heard of him?), who are eager for playing time.
It's a good strategy, but I'm a bit skeptical it will work this time. Michael Cooper has a real smooth offensive game, and his perimeter-focused game meshes well with Ross, who prefers to slash/barrel into the paint, hoping for a trip to the charity stripe. Dort should be a double-double threat every time he plays, but this roster just doesn't have a ton of oomph, unless a serious breakout is percolating under the surface.
17. Georgia Tech2025-26 record: 11-20, 2-16 ACC
Postseason: None.
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: G Kayden Allen, G Courtland Muldrew, G Nasir Whitlock, F Tyler Jordan, F Moustapha Diop
The scoop: New Georgia Tech coach Scott Cross should get ample time to revive this downtrodden Yellow Jackets' club, but it may be a bit of a slow burn in Year 1. San Jose State transfer guard Colby Garland will be the engine of this group after averaging over 20 points in the Mountain West with ridiculous midrange shot-making. The midrange maestro has to keep that up in the ACC, where it's even harder to get to the cup.
Cross smartly cobbled together as much size as possible around the diminutive Garland, which should show up on defense. 6-7 Victor Valdes, dubbed 'Mexican Luka,' will add some playmaking and switchability defensively. The same goes for ex-Troy 6-8 forward Jackson Fields, who is reuniting with Cross after a pitstop at West Virginia. Toss in 6-6 sniper Kam Craft, and Georgia Tech could trot out Garland surrounded by four players who are 6-6 or taller.
But this isn't the most athletic group, and it's hard to see how Georgia Tech generates a lot of easy buckets in the paint with this big man corps. Cole Kirouac and Moustapha Diop are going to have to take major jumps to be ACC difference-makers. Keep an eye on freshman guard Kayden Allen, who nees to provide instant offense and a jolt of talent. Don't be surprised if he wriggles his way into the starting five when it's all said and done.
Expectations aren't high here, but Cross has beaten his KenPom projection in four of the past five seasons. He's a good coach, but he'll need time.
18. Wake Forest2025-26 record: 18-17 overall, 7-11 ACC
Postseason: Lost in the second round of the NIT
Projected 2026-27 starting lineup
Top bench options: F Gavin Placide, F Ring Nyeri, G Isaac Carr, F Gallagher Placide, F Vinny Chaudhri
The scoop: New point guard Kevair Kennedy shot a whopping 327 attempts at the rim last year at Merrimack. That ranked fourth nationally last year, behind a guy named Cameron Boozer. The 6-foot guard is going to get to the rack by land or by sea. That much is clear. Kennedy's drives will be the staple of this offense, especially with the shooting Steve Forbes has added with Justin Ray, Jamary McDowell, Xander Pintelon and Ring Nyeri, who all shot over 35% from downtown last year on real volume. But Kennedy also got worked at times in the MAAC. How's that going to work in the ACC when defenders sag into the paint and wait for a below-the-rim finisher to try and make a layup over real high-major size?
Wake Forest only had room in the budget for high-major backups and a couple productive mid-major targets. The talent on this roster just isn't up to ACC standards, especially after prized freshman Quentin Coleman got poached by Illinois and star wing Juke Harris transferred to Tennessee for a fat wad. It may be a very long year for a coaching staff that has one of the smallest NIL budgets at the high-major ranks.
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