CFP top 12: One last projection before the first committee ranking

The more things change, the more ... Ohio State remains the same.

There were some Week 10 surprises, but not at the top, where defending national champion Ohio State should start the first College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday right where it left off last season -- at No. 1. Although there could be some debate over the top spot when the 12 members of this year's group vote on teams for their first official top 25 ranking of the season, the bigger discussion will likely revolve around one-loss Alabama and undefeated Texas A&M for the No. 3 and No. 4 spots.

How far do the two-loss Canes fall after their loss at SMU, and how high can two-loss Notre Dame rise? Can Texas Tech make its debut in the CFP top 25? Was Vandy's moment in the field fleeting after its loss to Texas?

Here's a prediction of what the selection committee will do on Tuesday night when it reveals its first of six rankings (8 p.m. ET/ESPN) -- the season's first true baseline of the playoff pecking order.

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Why they could be here: Ohio State has been one of the most consistently complete teams, and that season-opening win against Texas will continue to boost the Buckeyes. The Longhorns' win against Vanderbilt on Saturday helped both their playoff hopes and Ohio State's résumé. Ohio State also has road wins against Washington and Illinois, two of the Big Ten's better teams. Ohio State hasn't allowed a team more than 16 points this season. The Buckeyes entered Saturday leading the nation in total efficiency and ranked in the top three in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Saturday's lopsided win against a Penn State team that remains winless in conference play won't wow anyone in the room, but it will continue to enhance the Buckeyes' record strength.

Why they could be lower: Indiana has a better win -- by double digits at Oregon -- and is statistically comparable. The Hoosiers are No. 2 in total efficiency and ranked in the top six in both offensive and defensive efficiencies entering Week 10. The committee also compares common opponents, and the Hoosiers had a historically large margin of victory against Illinois, although Ohio State also won with ease.

Need to know: The Buckeyes are trending toward the No. 1 seed on Selection Day if they win the Big Ten, and that means they would earn a first-round bye and play the winner of the No. 8 vs. No. 9 first-round game. Ohio State entered Saturday with the best chance in the country to reach the playoff (95.7%).

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.

Why they could be here: The Hoosiers earned their third road win of the season on Saturday at Maryland, which is now a four-loss team. Indiana has been one of the most dominant teams in the country, regardless of opponent, ranking No. 2 in ESPN's game control metric -- second only to Ohio State. Indiana's nonconference lineup, though, doesn't include an opponent as impressive as Texas. The Hoosiers beat Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State -- the latter being a struggling FCS team. IU and Ohio State are very evenly matched statistically, but Ohio State entered Saturday with the best defense in the country, holding opponents to 6.88 points per game.

Why they could be higher: Indiana still owns one of the best wins in the country, beating Oregon 30-20 on Oct. 11 -- and that remains a better win than Ohio State's win against Texas in part because it was on the road, but also because the committee will likely have Oregon ranked ahead of Texas on Tuesday. The Hoosiers entered Week 10 ranked No. 2 and with a slight edge over the No. 3 Buckeyes in ESPN's strength of record metric. The committee also compares common opponents, and IU dominated Illinois 63-10, whereas Ohio State won 34-16. The committee, though, doesn't incentivize running up the score, and any margin greater than three touchdowns or so isn't earning any bonus points in the room.

Need to know: If the Hoosiers run the table and play for the Big Ten championship, they should be a CFP lock. Even if they lose in the title game, the committee will likely keep them in contention for a top-four finish and first-round bye.

Toughest remaining game: There isn't one. Penn State, Wisconsin and Purdue each have at least five losses, and the Hoosiers have at least a 77% chance to win each of those games.

Why they could be here: If Georgia is a top-five team on Tuesday night -- and Notre Dame is behind it -- Alabama's best win would trump Texas A&M's top win against the Irish. Both were close games on the road. The bigger difference is that the Tide also earned wins against Vanderbilt, Mizzou and Tennessee, which should all be CFP top 25 teams on Tuesday night. Alabama has four consecutive wins -- from late September to mid-October -- against teams the committee holds in high regard, including two on the road. Alabama has been a slightly better defensive team against more elite competition, ranking No. 15 in defensive efficiency, while the Aggies are No. 18. Overall, Alabama entered Saturday ranked No. 8 in total efficiency, another small edge over No. 10 Texas A&M.

Why they could be lower: Some committee members could continue to penalize Alabama for its season-opening loss to Florida State, which looks worse each week. Plus, the Aggies haven't lost and are No. 1 in ESPN's strength of record metric.

Need to know: So what's the difference between earning the No. 3 or the No. 4 seed? The No. 3 seed faces the winner of the No. 11 vs. No. 6 first-round game. The No. 4 seed plays the winner of the No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Oklahoma. The Sooners will likely be the last CFP top 25 team Alabama faces during the regular season.

Why they could be here: The undefeated Aggies have one of the best nonconference wins in the country, a 41-40 win at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. The win against LSU is now ... interesting? The Aggies earned a resounding 49-25 win in Baton Rouge, but LSU is a three-loss team that fired its head coach and athletic director. How the committee views LSU will be a factor in how it regards A&M's résumé. In addition to Notre Dame, Texas A&M's wins against teams above .500 came versus LSU and Mississippi State. Both Texas A&M and Alabama have three road wins each, but two of Bama's (Georgia and Missouri) came against ranked teams.

Why they could be higher: The Aggies are undefeated and No. 1 in ESPN's strength of record metric, and Alabama lost to a struggling Florida State team.

Need to know: The Aggies and Tide don't play each other during the regular season but are the most likely matchup in the SEC championship game, according to ESPN Analytics. Texas A&M also doesn't play Georgia during the regular season.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas.

Why they could be here: The Bulldogs escaped a feisty Florida team in Jacksonville on Saturday to remain one of the committee's top one-loss contenders. The head-to-head SEC results, though, will keep them sandwiched between Alabama and Ole Miss. Georgia's only loss was by three points at home to the Tide on Sept. 27, and its best win was on Oct. 18 at home against Ole Miss. An overtime win at Tennessee will also help separate Georgia from other one-loss contenders ranked lower. And for as many questions as there have been about Georgia's defense, Florida converted just 2 of 11 third downs and was 0-for-2 on fourth down.

Why they could be lower: It would be difficult for the committee to justify dropping Georgia below Ole Miss, which it beat, as long as their records are comparable. If there is a knock on the Bulldogs, though, it has been the defense, which was No. 36 in efficiency entering Saturday.

Need to know: Georgia entered Saturday with the third-best chance to reach the SEC championship game behind Alabama and Texas A&M, according to ESPN Analytics.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. The Longhorns beat Vanderbilt on Saturday and have now won four straight games to keep their playoff hopes alive. They'll have a bye week to prepare for the trip to Athens.

Why they could be here: The Rebels struggled to contain LaNorris Sellers and South Carolina early, but the defense swarmed Sellers in the fourth quarter and Ole Miss pulled away to likely remain one of the committee's top one-loss teams. Ole Miss will still be ranked behind Georgia because of the head-to-head road loss to the Bulldogs on Oct. 18. The Rebels entered Saturday ranked No. 7 in ESPN's strength of record metric. Their best win was Oct. 25 at Oklahoma, and the lopsided win against two-loss Tulane is still respectable. Part of the committee's evaluation of Ole Miss will depend on how much it values a win against three-loss LSU, which has since fired its coach and athletic director.

Why they could be lower: BYU is undefeated and entered Week 10 ranked No. 9 in total efficiency; Ole Miss was No. 21. BYU was also No. 5 in strength of record, a slight edge over No. 7 Ole Miss.

Need to know: Ole Miss entered November with a three-game stretch at home against unranked opponents, including The Citadel in its next game. The Rebels' best opportunities to impress the selection committee are behind them, but as long as they don't stumble, it shouldn't impact their playoff standing. A bad loss, though, could call the Rebels' résumé into question.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State. The Egg Bowl isn't a gimme, especially as the Bulldogs have crept above .500. A loss could mean a first-round road trip instead of a home game for Ole Miss -- or getting bumped out of the bracket entirely.

Why they could be here: The Cougars had a bye week but will be the committee's lone undefeated Big 12 team to consider. BYU's back-to-back wins against Utah and Iowa State are collectively better than anything undefeated Georgia Tech has on its résumé. Heading into Saturday, BYU was ranked No. 5 in ESPN's strength of record metric, ahead of No. 8 Georgia Tech. The more glaring discrepancy is in strength of schedule, where BYU was No. 49 and Georgia Tech was No. 83. Statistically, BYU and Georgia Tech have been extremely even in most major categories, but the Cougars have done it against better competition.

Why they could be lower: The committee will discuss an FCS win against Portland State, and three wins against teams with losing records -- Stanford, Colorado and West Virginia.

Need to know: BYU and Texas Tech are the most likely matchup in the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics, but they will first play each other in Lubbock, Texas, next week. If BYU reaches the Big 12 title game undefeated, it will almost certainly earn an at-large bid as a one-loss runner-up if it doesn't win the title. If BYU loses to Texas Tech during the regular season but beats it in the Big 12 title game, it's also still possible they both get in if it's a close game. Even with a second loss, the Red Raiders could claim a regular-season win against the Big 12 champs, which would be a huge boost to their résumé in the committee meeting room.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. BYU has a week to prepare, but the Red Raiders are coming off a road win at Kansas State.

Why they could be here: The Ducks will be one of the committee's most interesting teams to debate because they have played well, but their best win is ... Sept. 13 at Northwestern -- the only team they've beaten with a winning record. Entering Saturday, Oregon's opponents had a winning percentage of 47.9%, ranked No. 101 in the country. The Ducks also have an FCS win against Montana State. The committee will likely still respect the Sept. 27 win at Penn State because the Nittany Lions had head coach James Franklin, it was a hostile crowd environment, and the team had yet to unravel. It still wasn't a win against a playoff contender, though. Oregon lost to Indiana, the best team it has played, by double digits at home.

Why they could be higher: With the exception of the double-overtime win at Penn State, Oregon has won in convincing fashion all season. The Ducks entered Saturday ranked No. 7 in scoring defense (13.5 points per game) and No. 6 in points per game (41.25). The Ducks also have one of the best losses in the country, as it could be to the committee's No. 2 team, Indiana.

Need to know: Oregon has more chances to impress the selection committee in November, with games against Iowa, USC and at Washington looming -- all teams with winning records and potentially ranked in the CFP top 25. The committee doesn't project ahead, though, and Oregon had a Week 10 bye, so this is the résumé it will be judged by on Tuesday.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. The 6-2 Huskies have lost only to Ohio State and on the road against Michigan.

Why they could be here: The Red Raiders are clearly a talented team -- and might be better than undefeated BYU -- but the loss at Arizona State will probably keep them from climbing much higher in the initial ranking. They don't have much to compensate for it, aside from the 34-10 win at Utah on Sept. 20. Saturday's win at Kansas State, though, was Texas Tech's third Big 12 road win. The committee will respect the Oct. 4 win at Houston, but it didn't help that the Cougars (7-2) lost to West Virginia on Saturday.

Why they could be lower: The brutal nonconference lineup against FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State and Oregon State doesn't include any teams with winning records. The Red Raiders entered Saturday No. 14 in ESPN's strength of record metric, and No. 60 in strength of schedule.

Need to know: If Texas Tech loses to BYU on Saturday but still wins the Big 12, it's a CFP lock. The problem is that if the Red Raiders lose a second conference game, they're going to need some help to reach the Big 12 championship. So a loss to BYU could be devastating to their conference and CFP hopes. If the Red Raiders beat BYU next Saturday but lose to the Cougars in the Big 12 championship game, they will still have a chance at an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. They would be able to claim a win over the eventual Big 12 champs, which would be a much-needed boost to their résumé. It would depend in part on how the game unfolded.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 vs. BYU. The Cougars are the only remaining opponent with a winning record, as Texas Tech ends the season against UCF (4-4) and at West Virginia (3-6).

Why they could be here: The Irish have now won six straight after their 0-2 start and made a case for a top-10 ranking -- with the help of Miami, Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt all possibly falling out. The head-to-head loss to Miami in the season opener will be a discussion point, but it's one of several tiebreakers, and if the committee feels strongly that Notre Dame is now the better team, it can rank it as such. The Irish got off to a slow start against Boston College on Saturday but eventually pulled away to avoid elimination against a now 1-8 team. Notre Dame's best win is against USC, and it could have another ranked opponent on its schedule if Pitt works its way into the CFP top 25 on Tuesday. Notre Dame travels to Pitt on Nov. 15. Notre Dame's improved defense and strong running game could help boost the Irish into a safe ranking spot when it matters the most.

Why they could be lower: There could be committee members who still believe strongly that Miami's head-to-head win should keep the Canes ranked above the Irish while their records remain comparable.

Need to know: Notre Dame has at least a 75% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Pitt. If there's a trap game remaining, this is it, as Pitt is an ACC team that has won five straight games. The Panthers also have a bye week to prepare for this game.

Why they could be here: With their win against Vanderbilt -- and Georgia Tech's loss at NC State -- the Longhorns are back in the conversation. Texas now has two wins against what should be CFP top 25 teams in Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, and the season-opening loss at Ohio State isn't going to hurt the Longhorns in the eyes of the committee. The Oct. 4 loss at Florida is bad, but unlike Georgia Tech, the Longhorns have statement wins to help offset it. Texas has won four straight games since its loss to the Gators, and it has the head-to-head win against rival Oklahoma. That looks even better after the Sooners beat Tennessee on the road Saturday. Texas entered Week 10 ranked No. 13 in both ESPN's strength of record and strength of schedule metrics.

Why they could be lower: The selection committee could also consider dropping Georgia Tech or Miami here, or adding Virginia into the mix. Some committee members could also give more credit to Oklahoma's road win over Tennessee than to the Longhorns' home win against Vandy. And much like the Miami-Notre Dame scenario, there could be people in the room who give less weight to the head-to-head result than other factors.

Need to know: If the playoff were today, Texas would be bumped out to make room for the ACC champion, which is now projected to be Virginia, which is ranked outside of the committee's projected top 12. Because both the ACC champion and the Group of 5 champion are outside of the top 12, the teams ranked No. 11 and No. 12 would both get bumped out.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Texas A&M. It's certainly not going to be easy to win at Georgia on Nov. 15, but the Longhorns will have a bye week to prepare for it. A top-four rival on a Friday night in the regular-season finale will be the second-best opponent Texas faces all season, the lone exception being its season opener against Ohio State.

Why they could be here: The Sooners' two losses were to Texas and Ole Miss, both respectable losses to CFP top 25 teams, and their win at Tennessee on Saturday was a much-needed boost to their résumé. The Week 2 win against Michigan, though, is one of the nation's better nonconference wins, and the Wolverines are 7-2 after having won three straight games. OU also entered Saturday ranked No. 22 in strength of schedule and No. 16 in total efficiency. The head-to-head loss, though, could keep it behind rival Texas.

Why they could be higher: The win at Tennessee was significant, giving the Sooners a key SEC road win against a ranked opponent. The committee would also consider the hand injury to John Mateer in the Texas game, as he made his return 17 days after having hand surgery and threw three interceptions. The question is if it would be enough of a factor along with the Sooners' résumé to look past the head-to-head result.

Need to know: If the playoff were today, Oklahoma would be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Right now that team -- Memphis as the projected American champion -- would be ranked outside the top 12.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Sooners have a bye week to prepare for it but will be in a must-win situation in Tuscaloosa.

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ) No. 2 Indiana No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)

No. 4 Texas A&M