Arch Manning was crowned too early. Now the Texas QB finally has the team to justify the hype
At the Manning Passing Academy a year ago, Arch Manning emerged as a legitimate celebrity.
There were Texas jerseys all over the place in Thibodaux, Louisiana. Said then-North Carolina quarterback Gio Lopez of "Arch Mania:" "It felt like the Arch Manning Academy."
That was before Manning ever took a snap as Texas' full-time starter. That's the hype that his grandpa, Archie Manning, the Manning family patriarch, criticized a year later at the 2026 version of the Manning camp.
"I was kind of disappointed in a lot of, just a lot of people," Archie Manning told gathered reporters. "The whole thing. They kind of crowned Arch before he ever played. And I just didn't think that was fair. Yeah, it was a little tough start … But I've never been more proud of anybody in my life with the way Arch battled through what he had to go through last year, and the way he played, you know, the last eight or nine games of the season."
That's a grandpa protecting his grandson.
It's also a fair criticism of the general public sentiment. Manning was hyped to an insane degree a season ago. He'd thrown 95 career passes at that point, but the conversation on shows like ESPN's "Get Up" was about teams tanking for him in the 2026 NFL Draft. He was the preseason favorite. Texas ranked No. 1 in the preseason for the first time EVER.
College football QB tiers: Arch Manning, Dante Moore lead top group in 2026 class
David Cobb
When Manning did eventually play, the production proved inconsistent.
The final results were solid. He finished 17th in ESPN's QBR metric. PFF's grading system ranked Manning 14th in the FBS. There were major highs. There were also puzzling pockets of horrendous play against teams like UTEP and Kentucky to the point where people examined Manning's every facial expression, working as detectives to discover a shoulder injury that could explain the poor play.
Manning did have a nagging foot injury. But mostly, he performed like what he was: A first-year starter who was working through the growing pains alongside an inconsistent offensive line and a lacking run game.
Manning played well in 2025. But the expectations that surrounded him were nearly impossible to equal, especially when you consider the context of what surrounded him.
As for 2026? This is the first time that hype actually equals circumstance.
What went wrong, right in 2025If you think about Manning's 2025 season, you can dissect it into two parts: Prior to Oct. 7, when an Athletic columnist declared him college football's first flop, and from Oct. 7 onward, when Manning led Texas to a 7-1 record as the starter.
That split isn't perfectly clean. Manning had great games in that prior run, and he had his struggles late. But the split between his first five games and his last eight is drastic:
- First 5 games: 81-135 (60 CMP%), 1,151 yards, 11 TDs, 5 INTs, 8.5 YPA
- Final 8 games: 167-269 (62.1 CMP%), 2,012 yards, 15 TDs, 2 INTs, 7.5 YPA
The easiest way to explain Manning's improvement from Oct. 7 onward is to look at how Texas used him offensively. Manning is an excellent deep ball passer, and Steve Sarkisian attempted to highlight that early in the year. Manning averaged 11.9 air yards per attempt through Week 6, which ranked second nationally.
That just wasn't working. Texas' offensive line struggled, the run game couldn't generate consistent yardage without Tre Wisner, and the Longhorns' wide receivers dropped passes all season. Manning, too, failed to find a consistent rhythm. He was wildly inaccurate at times -- like a 0-for-10 stretch against UTEP -- and would sometimes needlessly put the ball in harm's way.
Coming out of Texas' bye week ahead of Oklahoma, Sarkisian shifted the way he called his offense.
Instead of asking Manning to be Superman and solve the offense's problems with big plays, the Longhorns pivoted to a more timing-based passing attack that masked the offensive line's weakness.
From Week 7 on, Manning averaged just 8.6 air yards per attempt, which ranked 60th out of 97 qualifying quarterbacks. Manning went from averaging 3.14 seconds in time to throw in the first half of the season to 2.69 seconds in the second half of the year.
Getting the ball out more quickly alleviated pressure on Texas' offensive line, allowing Manning to establish a better rhythm.
While Manning's 62.1% completion percentage in that stretch isn't elite, it looks much better when accounting for drops. Texas' receivers dropped 17 of his passes in the second half of the season, which was the third-most nationally. Remove those, and Manning's adjusted completion rate jumps to 75.3%, which would have been 26th nationally among qualifying passers.
Manning didn't begin the year as an elite college quarterback.
But he ended the year that way.
The 2025 version of Texas had legitimate questions about its offense entering the season.
Only three offensive starters returned, including an almost total rebuild of the offensive line.
The 2026 version of Texas is different.
There are no obvious holes on the Longhorns' roster, especially on offense, entering the year.
The offensive line projects to transform from weakness to strength. Three starters return, including a potential first-round pick at left tackle in Trevor Goosby, and the Longhorns added a pair of multi-year starters in the portal at tackle (Melvin Siani) and guard (Laurence Seymore). In total, the unit will have 5,806 career snaps starting Week 1.
The running back room that failed to produce a 600-yard rusher and averaged just 4.3 yards per carry added two of the top six running backs in the portal -- No. 3 Hollywood Smothers and No. 6 Raleek Brown -- a thunder-and-lightning pairing that complements each other well.
As for that receiver room that dropped far too many passes last year? It added the top receiver in the portal, Cam Coleman, who most NFL scouts consider a first-round talent entering his junior season.
There's an irony in Texas likely not being the preseason No. 1 team in 2026.
Last year's Texas team had an unproven nucleus surrounding a first-year starting QB.
This year, Texas is actually loaded. The Longhorns don't need Manning to cover their flaws.
They just need Manning to be what everyone assumed he was. It's what Texas considers him internally to be -- an elite college passer with a first-round NFL Draft ceiling.
So, yes. Archie Manning is correct. The college football machine -- from fans to media members to eager brands like Red Bull -- did crown Arch too early.
Now? It's time for Arch to grab that crown.
He's got No. 1 draft pick potential. He's got a national championship-level supporting cast.
For the first time in Manning's career, the expectations actually fit the circumstance.
He should be a Heisman candidate, someone who can help Texas take advantage of its championship window. Anything less would be a disappointment.
cbssports
