2025 CFB Week 1 Picks, Predictions: Back Oregon to Start Hot, Win Big
It's time to make some college football wagers.
With a loaded Week 1 slate, it was hard to pick just a few bets, but here are a few that I like.
Entering the 2025 season, I’m high on Georgia Tech and selling on Colorado.
Let’s start with Georgia Tech, which finished 7-5 in the regular season under head coach Brent Key in his second full season. Key is a former offensive lineman, and his team plays like that. The Yellow Jackets are physical on both sides of the ball and try to impose their will on their opponents. Look no further than their win against Miami last season or the 44-42 loss to Georgia in the final game of the regular season. They can routinely play with the big boys.
Quarterback Haynes King is back for this season. He led the ACC in completion percentage and added nearly 600 yards on the ground. Lead back Jamal Haynes returns after rushing for 1,000 yards, and while Georgia Tech has to replace some offensive linemen, this is where I trust the head coach. He has developed that position well everywhere he’s been.
On defense, Georgia Tech is led by new defensive coordinator Blake Gibson from Texas. The Jackets must replace multiple starting defensive linemen, but have added transfer players that they hope will help the unit start fast. The Jackets return a veteran secondary and are in the top 40 for returning production on defense.
Colorado is undergoing roster turnover again.
The Buffaloes are replacing their quarterback with Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter, their top four receiving targets and four offensive linemen on offense. Some might point to them upgrading the offensive line, and while I don’t disagree, there are still lots of questions on offense.
They aren’t as talented at quarterback or receiver, and the offense relied heavily on the production of Shedeur Sanders and his receiving corps. It’s not an offense that’s designed for easy plays, and Colorado has yet to commit to the run in two seasons.
Colorado’s defense was much improved last season under first-time defensive coordinator Rob Livingston, and I don't think enough attention was given to this unit, which was an outstanding second-half squad. However, Colorado is down lots of production, just like on offense. The Buffs are without their best pass rusher, both linebackers, both safeties and a Heisman-winning corner. How do you replace that much production without a base of high school players that you have developed?
Can the Buffs get up to speed quickly to make enough plays? I just don’t buy it.
PICK: Georgia Tech (-4) to win by more than 4 points
I’m also high on the Utes this season, and I’m starting by wagering on them in Week 1.
This is a road game, but it’s Labor Day Weekend at the Rose Bowl. Utah played the last two seasons with a roster ravaged by injuries. Quarterback Cam Rising played three games over that span after injuring his knee in the 2023 Rose Bowl. That forced Utah to play at least five different quarterbacks in 2023 and 2024, and the results were ugly.
Utah went into the portal to grab New Mexico quarterback Devon Dampier, a first-team All-Mountain West selection.
The Utes also added New Mexico's offensive coordinator, who led the Lobos to finishing first in the country in yards per carry. It’s a perfect fit for Utah, which has one of the best offensive lines in the country. Both tackles will be first-round picks. Utah’s rushing attack is going to face a UCLA defense replacing nine starters.
The Bruins did add some portal players, but they haven’t recruited at a level that will help them reload that quickly.
It’s always fair to question Utah’s passing attack, and that could be a concern this season, but I don’t see it mattering much here. The Utes will control the line of scrimmage and score on UCLA.
UCLA made headlines this spring when it landed former five-star Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava, a talented player who is also inconsistent.
The Bruins have decent receiving options and some transfer talent at running back. Their offensive line was brutal last season, and they will replace three starters. Just like the rest of their roster, the Bruins are hoping to patch the holes on the line with portal guys.
Utah’s defense has been its calling card for years, and I don’t doubt it will change this season. The Utes are replacing their defensive line, but they’ve shown the ability to reload that position year after year. They return experience at linebacker and in the secondary. And their defense should win the matchup against the Bruins offense.
Utah is more talented and has a more cohesive approach than UCLA. I like Utah to cruise in this game.
PICK: Utah (-6) to win by more than 6 points
A Geoff Schwartz special: A west coast football game that will not see many eyes.
The Cal Bears are a huge fade team for me this season. They’ve lost all their best players, and since Cal’s excellent season in 2019, the program has trended south. Cal is starting a true freshman quarterback on the road with a poor roster, and I’m going to fade that team all the time.
Oregon State’s Trent Bray is entering his second season as head coach with a chance for much better play out of the quarterback. The Beavers were able to land quarterback Maalik Murphy in the portal, and he’s the most talented QB they’ve had in a while. The Beavers also return their top running back and receiver. A name to watch is Trent Walker, who caught 81 passes for 900 yards. He’s on preseason watch lists for receiving awards.
Cal’s calling card is its defense. That side is good and will be good again this season — I'm just not sure it will be great in Week 1. A brand-new secondary and new linebackers are behind a good defensive line, though. This is where Cal can control this game if the Oregon State rushing attack doesn’t get going.
PICK: Oregon State (-120)
Call me a homer, but so be it.
I think this number is way too low based on the performance we saw last season when Oregon opened with Idaho. Oregon won the game by 10, and it took some late points to secure the win. Oregon is not that team that started slowly last season and, with that in the back of their minds, it will come out playing better early on Saturday.
Head coach Dan Lanning spoke this week about their game one plan being overly complicated, and this weekend to expect less on offense. Less is more in this game, in which Oregon can rely on its offensive line and skill talent to win. Yes, Oregon does replace tons, and that includes the quarterback. However, Dante Moore started games as a true freshman for UCLA in 2023. This is not his first start.
Oregon’s defense is uber-talented. It will rely on some younger players at defensive tackle and in the secondary, which would concern me a tad if Montana State decides to make this a ground-and-pound plus trick play game. However, if Oregon’s defense can’t control the Bobcats rushing attack, it has bigger issues to worry about.
Montana State announced its quarterback will be Justin Lamson, a transfer from Stanford who spent a little time at Bowling Green this winter. He completed less than 50% of passes at Stanford, and I’m not sure he’s up for a big game at Autzen.
I’d be upset if this isn't a blowout for Oregon.
PICK: Oregon (-27.5) to win by more than 27.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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