Nintendo forecasts sales of 15 million Switch 2 consoles as it gears up for launch

Nintendo said Thursday that it expects to sell 15 million units of its new Switch 2 console in the fiscal year ending March 2026.

It is the first forecast for sales from the Japanese gaming giant since it announced the successor to its successful Switch device, which is due to go on sale in June.

Nintendo also reported results for its fiscal fourth quarter and full year. Here's how Nintendo did in its fiscal fourth quarter ended Mar. 31 versus LSEG estimates:

• Revenue: 208.7 billion Japanese yen ($1.45 billion), compared with 216.16 billion yen expected.
• Net profit: 41.6 billion yen, versus 33.91 billion yen expected.

Revenue fell 24.7% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period a year earlier, while profit plunged nearly 50%. This was largely expected as Nintendo fans await the Switch 2 and hold off on buying the current console.

Earlier this year Nintendo slashed its forecast for sales of the Switch to 11 million units for the year ended Mar. 31. Nintendo on Thursday said it sold 10.8 million units of the Switch in the year, just shy of its own forecast and down 31% year-on-year.

Market research firm Omdia expects Nintendo to sell 14.7 million Switch 2 units in 2025 alone, which would be about 10% ahead of the original Switch's debut year.

"Switch 2 will launch into a stronger position than its predecessor, with over 100 million active Switch users providing a strong foundation for adoption," George Jijiashvili, Omdia's senior principal analyst, told CNBC by email.

Investors are also focused on Nintendo's forecast for the fiscal year. The company expects net sales of 1.9 trillion yen, a 63% year-on-year rise but just short of LSEG estimates of 2 trillion yen. It expects net profit to jump 7.6% to 300 billion yen, below LSEG estimates of 388.8 billion yen.

However, Nintendo noted that all of its forecasts are based on U.S. tariff rates effective Apr. 10 — following a pause in U.S. President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs for many countries.

Nintendo in April delayed pre-orders for the Switch 2 in the U.S. after the initial announcement of Trump's sweeping tariffs on countries around the world. Nintendo's consoles are manufactured in Vietnam, which faces duties of 46% once the pause lifts.

Nintendo's President Shuntaro Furukawa said on Thursday that if additional tariffs are imposed and prices of its goods need to be adjusted, demand in the U.S. may decrease, Reuters reported. Duties could hit profit to the tune of tens of billions of yen, Furukawa added, according to the report.

Serkan Toto, CEO of Tokyo-based games consultancy Kantan Games, said Nintendo's forecasts are typically conservative.

"Nintendo loves lowballing their forecasts, and the current climate around tariffs gives them all the reason to be more cautious than ever," Toto told CNBC.

He added that tariffs are creating an "unclear future" for Nintendo, making it "impossible" for any hardware maker to make sales predictions.

"What happens if the tariffs on imports from China stay this high for longer or if they are raised for Vietnam?" Toto said.

"If Nintendo needed to raise prices by $100 or more, all bets would be off and the company would be under enormous pressure in the all important U.S. market."

Investors are now focused on how the successor to the console, the Switch 2, will perform following its launch. The Switch 2 will start at $449.99 in the U.S. and has improved features compared with its predecessor.

As well as the 15 million unit sales forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2026, Nintendo said it expects to sell 45 million units of software during the same period.

Games are important for the success of any console and Nintendo said the Switch 2 will launch with two titles — "Mario Kart World" and "Nintendo Switch 2 Welcome Tour." There will also be Switch 2 versions of existing games such as "Zelda: Breath of the Wild." Nintendo is leaning on its popular characters such as Mario and Zelda to boost the appeal of the Switch 2.

Nintendo first launched the original Switch in 2017 and it has become the Japanese gaming giant's second-best-selling console ever with over 150 million units sold. The firm managed to extend the life of the hardware thanks to hit games involving characters like Super Mario, franchises such as Pokemon and the expansion of its intellectual property into films.

Investors are hopeful the company can continue to ride its wave of popularity with shares up around 30% this year and 64% over the past 12 months.