Politics LIVE: Starmer bracing for Andy Burnham win as count underway in key by-election

Andy Burnham hs just arrived at the count. Supporters cheered as he entered the room. He then went round to several people hugging them and shaking hands.

Andrew Bowie MP, Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland, said: “This is an extraordinary victory for Douglas Lumsden MP and the Conservatives. This is the first time that the Conservative Party has gained a Westminster Parliamentary by-election in Scotland since 1967.

“We said this election was a referendum on the future of North Sea oil and gas, and Aberdeen has spoken loud and clear. Let’s Get Britain Drilling Now.

“I look forward to Douglas joining the Conservative team in Westminster, where I know he will work tirelessly to hold Ed Miliband to account and stand up for the people of Aberdeen.”

Lara Bird has won the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election holding the seat for the SNP.

Former cabinet minister Louise Haigh said Sir Keir Starmer should set out an orderly transition of power if Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election.

“I hope, if things go the way way we want them to tonight that Keir Starmer takes the time to reflect on these results, reflect on the results just six weeks ago and do what’s best for both the country and the Labour Party,” she told the BBC.

“I hope that he will consider an orderly and managed transition. We have said that the party is in an existential crisis and things cannot continue.

“It was quite clear , after the local elections, unfortunately he considered that business as usual would suffice.

“Andy has, potentially, shown tonight what a changed Labour Party can bring and how we can beat the rise of Reform because without that optimism and without that on the ballot paper then we will see a Reform prime minister at the next general election.”

The Tories have taken their first by-election win in Scotland since the 1970s.

Conservative Party candidate Douglas Lumsden has taken the win in Aberdeen South.

If the Conservatives do win Aberdeen South it will be only the fifth time this century the party has gained a seat at a Westminster by-election.

The last time was Hartlepool in May 2021, when Jill Mortimer took the seat from Labour with a swing of almost 16%, a result which piled pressure on Sir Keir Starmer, who was then leader of the opposition.

The SNP’s Stephen Flynn, who gave up his Aberdeen South seat for a seat in Holyrood, wrote on social media: “A tough night in Aberdeen that some will need to reflect on, quite heavily.”

He added: “We lost Aberdeen South to the Tories in 2017, and we won it back two years later.

“I’ve no doubt that we can do so again. If we get things right.”

Andy Burnham is likely to discuss the Labour leadership situation directly with Sir Keir Starmer if he wins the Makerfield by-election, a Cabinet minister said.

Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy said Mr Burnham deserves to be heard “loud and clear at the top of politics” if he succeeds in fighting off the challenge from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in the seat.

If Mr Burnham does hold Makerfield for Labour, he is expected to use his return to the Commons to launch an effort to oust the Prime Minister.

Ms Nandy, who insisted she still supports the Prime Minister, said Mr Burnham was capable of winning over voters in a way that no other Labour politician could.

She said: “If Andy wins tonight I’m sure there’ll be a conversation with the Prime Minister. I’m sure the Prime Minister will want to call to congratulate him, in fact, I know he will, and I know that they’ll have then have a conversation about what comes next.

“The Prime Minister has already signalled that he would like to extend a hand of friendship to Andy to make sure that he’s part of the team. I think that’s a conversation they need to have.”

The SNP have conceded defeat in Aberdeen South with a senior source saying it is the “Tories’ night”, but pledging to “win it back in 2029”.

Turnout in the Makerfield by-election is 58.75% - up from 52.4% at the 2024 general election

Labour sources are now increasingly confident of Andy Burnham winning the Makerfield by-election.

Senior SNP figures are pessimistic about the party’s fortunes in Aberdeen South, it is understood.

Sources have said early sampling of postal votes shows a heavy tactical vote skewed towards the Scottish Tory candidate Douglas Lumsden.

Senior Tory sources have suggested the party is “cautiously optimistic”, but emphasised it was early in the counting process.

The by-election is also expected to have a particularly low turnout.

The two by-elections taking place in Scotland were triggered when the former SNP MPs in these seats, Stephen Flynn in Aberdeen South and Stephen Gethins in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, were elected to the Scottish Parliament on May 7.

The law does not allow people to hold seats in the Parliament and in the House of Commons simultaneously.

In recent times, Labour represented the constituency from 1997 up to 2015, when it was first won by the SNP.

The Conservatives took the seat in 2017, only for the SNP to retake it in 2019 and hold it in 2024.

The result in 2024 saw Mr Flynn elected for the SNP on a very low share of the vote, 33%, with Labour in second place on 25% and the Conservatives close behind on 24%, while Reform got 7%, the Lib Dems 6% and the Greens 3%.

All six of these parties are standing at the by-election, along with a candidate for the Alliance for Democracy and Freedom.

The SNP’s majority in 2024 was 3,758 and the party finished just over eight percentage points ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives.

This means a swing of a little over four percentage points to either Labour or the Tories would see one of those parties take the seat from the SNP.

Labour MPs have represented this area of Greater Manchester for 120 years.

The by-election in Makerfield was triggered by the resignation of Mr Simons in order to allow Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham the chance to stand for a seat at Westminster.

Labour’s share of the vote at the 2024 general election was 45%, with Reform UK in second place on 32%, followed by the Conservatives on 11%, the Liberal Democrats on 7% and the Greens on 4%.

This was Reform’s sixth highest vote share in the UK at the 2024 election, behind only Clacton, Ashfield, Boston & Skegness, Great Yarmouth and Barnsley South.

Reform’s candidate in 2024, Rob Kenyon, is standing again this time, along with Mr Burnham for Labour and 12 others, including the Conservatives, the Lib Dems, the Greens and Restore Britain.

Mr Simons’s majority in 2024 was 5,399.

This is smaller than the Labour majority overturned by Reform at the Runcorn & Helsby by-election in Cheshire in May 2025 (14,696), and the Labour majority overturned by the Greens at the Gorton & Denton by-election in Greater Manchester in February 2026 (13,413).

Labour finished 13 percentage points ahead of Reform in vote share in 2024, meaning Reform needs a swing in the share of the vote of just over 6.5 percentage points to take the seat.

This is the equivalent of a net change of seven in every 100 people who voted Labour in 2024 switching directly to Reform.

The 2021 census found 96.7% of the population of Makerfield is white, higher than the equivalent figure for the North West (85.6%) and the UK (83.0%).

An estimated 96% of the population was born in the UK, compared with 88% for the North West and 84% for the UK.

Some 19.3% of children in the constituency were living in poverty in 2024/25 – defined as households with income below 60% of the national median average – which is lower than the figure for the region (24.5%) but similar to the overall level for the UK (19.3%).

The percentage of residents aged 16-64 claiming unemployment benefit stood at 3.1% in April 2026, below the equivalent figure for the region (4.2%) and the UK (3.9%).

Officials are expecting a high turnout in the Makerfield by-election.

Locals here are feeling the pressure of the decision they faced on Thursday. The politically-engaged constituents have been fully aware of the gravity of their vote – whch has the potential to lead to Keir Starmer's downfall.

A Reform source at the Makerfield count said it was “way too early and too close to call”.

He said canvassing had been “really positive”, but they would have a better idea of how the party had done after the verification process was complete.

Votes are counted for the Aberdeen South by-election at P&J Live in Aberdeen.

The by-election was triggered following Stephen Flynn being elected to the Scottish Parliament

Reform UK candidate Bill Reid watches as votes are counted for the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election at the Saltire Sports Centre in Arbroath.

Members of the public will "never forgive" Restore Britain's Rupert Lowe if his party splits the vote on the right, Nigel Farage said earlier on Thursday.

Reform UK's leader said Mr Lowe was running a "nihilistic campaign" in Makerfield.

Restore Britain is set to come third, following behind Reform UK and Labour.

Ballot boxes are delivered to the Edge Wigan for the Makerfield by-election which was triggered by the resignation of Josh Simons MP.

Votes being counted for the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election at the Saltire Sports Centre in Arbroath.

The by-election was triggered following Stephen Gethins being elected to the Scottish Parliament.

Andy Burnham said his supporters could be proud of the “very positive” campaign in Makerfield.

The Labour candidate and potential leadership challenger said: “Huge thanks to the people of the Makerfield constituency for your patience and good humour over the last five weeks.

“My thanks, too, to the many volunteers who came up to support my campaign. We ran a very positive one and can be proud of it.”

Reform MP Sarah Pochin, who won by six votes in Runcorn and Helsby, said it “would be an utter betrayal of the country” if going forward Restore splits vote on right.

Several Cabinet ministers have had to be talked out of resigning early by Andy Burnham's camp to prevent the Government descending into chaos ahead of the by-election.

Burnham supporters within the Government are said to have intended to quit early to pressure the Prime Minister into making way for his rival.

Fellow leadership hopeful and former health secretary Wes Streeting is reported to have met Mr Burnham while campaigning in Makerfield on Monday, though a source told the paper “no deals were done” as a result of the meeting.

Sir Keir has said he plans to call Mr Burnham “after the weekend”, but he may face swift pressure to accept a leadership contest or stand down, as Mr Streeting has indicated he is prepared to trigger a race as early as next week.

Sir Keir said on Wednesday he was willing to offer the Mayor of Greater Manchester a “big” job in his Government, should his rival win when Thursday’s votes are counted.

But allies of the mayor said he was not interested, insisting “the benefit Andy has is the wind of change for not having been associated with the Government’s failings”.

The Prime Minister has repeatedly insisted he has no intention of standing aside and is understood to have amassed a war chest to fund his campaign to fight any leadership challenge, as first reported by The Times.

He has the backing of a group of private donors with fundraising having ramped up in the last two days and total pledges running into six figures, sources said.

But Mr Burnham and his allies are reported to be hoping for a “coronation” in which Sir Keir stands aside, rather than a contest, which they believe would be damaging to Labour’s brand.

Voters in Makerfield have been bombardered by Reform UK, Labour and Restore Britain in the last few weeks.

This is one of the most high-profile by-elections that the country has seen – which could lead to the downfall of the country's Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.

Kevin Hollinrake MP, Chairman of the Conservative Party, said:"We always knew these by-elections would be tough, but we are up for the fight. Wherever voters are, we will always give them the opportunity to vote Conservative. I would like to pay tribute to our excellent parliamentary candidates Michael Winstanley, Douglas Lumsden and Jack Cruickshanks for the campaigns they have run.

"Areas like Makerfield and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry are not typically regarded as natural Conservative territory and in Aberdeen South we know we face a tough fight. But across the country we have given voters the opportunity to back a Stronger Economy, a Stronger Country and a party that will Get Britain Drilling and Working Again.

"Under Kemi Badenoch's leadership, the Conservative Party is rebuilding in every corner of the United Kingdom."

Polls have closed in two Scottish by-elections, called after the previous holders were elected to Holyrood.

Voters in Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry will have to wait until the early hours of Friday morning to find out who will be their new MP.

Former SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn stood down last month after he was elected as an MSP, with Stephen Gethins doing the same.

Both were quickly shepherded into John Swinney’s Government.

Postal ballot boxes have just begun to be opened. A verification process will now take place before counting begins shortly.

A Green Party spokesman said: "Our candidate Sarah Wakefield has run an outstanding campaign, highlighting that there is an alternative to the failing status quo, with the Greens message of making hope normal again and a fairer, greener country.

"Whatever the outcome of this by-election, it's clear people are desperate for real change.

"It will be a disaster for the people of Makerfield and the country if Reform’s candidate, with his history of misogynist views and Reform’s divisive policies wins out.

"Andy Burnham also needs to do much better if he is to fulfil his campaign promise of change. Throughout the campaign, he u-turned and u-turned on crucial issues for the country, pledging to stick to the failed fiscal rules, to make Labour’s settled status policies even crueller, failing to promise electoral reform before the general election and to take water and energy into public ownership. Unless Andy Burnham listens to the cry for change from the doorsteps of Makerfield, he is quickly going to find himself in the same status quo fuelled hole that Keir Starmer has ended up in. The Green Party are standing for a real positive alternative and are alone up to the job of taking on Reform and giving people hope."

Lucy Powell MP, Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, has just released a statement after polls closed.

She said: “Our great candidate, Andy Burnham, and our fantastic Labour team have run a positive campaign focused on the people of the Makerfield constituency.

“We knew this would be a tough fight, given Reform did so well here just a few weeks ago, but the Labour movement came together to show we are well up for that fight. While it will be some hours before we know the result, I want to say a huge thank you to the hundreds and hundreds of activists and volunteers who have helped with this campaign. Together, we’ve spoken to a record number of residents and shared our Labour message of hope and optimism.

“Labour will continue working every day for the people of this country, putting our values into action and delivering the fairer future communities want to see.”

Polls have just closed in the key by-election of Makerfield.

Ballot boxes will begin arriving in around 10 minutes, wth a declaration of results expected between 3am and 4am.