Most Albertans disapprove of Smith as premier and her handling of separatism: Ipsos poll

A majority of Albertans disapprove of both Danielle Smith’s performance as premier and of her handling of the separatism issue, according to a new Ipsos poll that also found Albertans on both ends of the debate believe Smith supports the opposite side of their own.

“The premier’s level of approval and then her performance on the issue of separatism seem to be moving in lockstep right now,” said Darrell Bricker, chairman of Ipsos Canada and global CEO for Ipsos Public Affairs.

The Ipsos survey, conducted for Global News between May 28 and June 1, found 56 per cent of Albertans overall disapprove of the job she is doing as premier, compared with 38 per cent who approve, while six per cent are undecided.

The level of disapproval is notable, Bricker said.

More than four in 10 respondents, or 42 per cent, say they “strongly” disapprove of Smith’s performance, compared with 17 per cent who strongly approve.

The data varied depending on where the respondent lives, their age and gender, and how their political affiliations lie.

Smith’s approval is higher amongst men than women — 45 per cent versus 31 per cent — and higher among younger residents, with 45 per cent approval amongst those aged 18 to 34, compared with 31 per cent amongst those 55 and older.

Unsurprisingly, political affiliation strongly influenced perceptions of the premier.

Smith enjoys a 78 per cent approval rating among current UCP supporters. That support drops to 14 per cent of NDP voters and 16 per cent of undecided voters.

Bricker said the latest data perhaps isn’t as damning as it may appear on the surface.

“I mean, they’re down a bit more as a result of what’s going on with the sovereignty issue. If she’s able to get past the sovereignty issue, if she’s able to push it off the agenda, everybody’s had their say — maybe there’s a possibility here for recovery,” Bricker said.

Opposition NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi’s approval rating sits at 39 per cent — one point above Smith’s — and 44 per cent of respondents disapprove of him. Seventeen per cent are undecided on his performance.

Nenshi’s support is stronger among younger Albertans and in the province’s major cities. His approval rating amongst Calgary respondents is 44 per cent and in Edmonton is 42 per cent, compared with 31 per cent elsewhere in the province.

“Mr. Nenshi hasn’t found a way to really expand his support or appeal for the NDP as a potential government for the province of Alberta,” Bricker said.

Premier Smith’s approval of how she’s handled the separation issue is similar to her overall approval rating: 58 per cent of people polled say they disapprove, including 44 per cent who strongly disapprove. One-third, or 33 per cent, approve of her handling, while nine per cent are undecided.

Opinions on that question are more sharply divided along lines of support for separation.

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Among those who say they would vote to separate in a binding referendum, 79 per cent approve of Smith’s handling of the issue.

In contrast, of those who would vote to remain in Canada, 21 per cent express approval.

Approval on the issue also tends to be higher among men and younger residents, and again is strongest among UCP supporters — two-thirds of whom approve of the government’s approach.

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The poll suggests many Albertans are unclear about Smith’s own position.

Both those who want Alberta to stay in Canada and those who want a binding referendum on separation think Smith wants the opposite of themselves.

Two-in-10 (21 per cent) residents are unsure whether Smith wants Alberta to stay or go, while 48 per cent believe she wants Alberta to separate from Canada, and 31 per cent believe she wants the province to remain.

Among those who would vote for Alberta to stay in Canada in a binding referendum, a majority — 55 per cent — think Smith favours separation. Conversely, among those who would vote to separate, 53 per cent believe Smith wants Alberta to remain in Canada.

Bricker says the findings point to widespread confusion or skepticism about the premier’s intentions, which extends across both sides of the debate.

“Both sides think differently of the premier,” Bricker said. “Now, you could look at that as being a problem, or you could also look at as a bit of a benefit.

Questions about Smith’s motivations in proceeding with a referendum related to separation further highlight partisan divides, Ipsos found.

A slight majority of respondents, 52 per cent, say they believe the primary reason Smith is proceeding with a referendum is to protect her position as UCP leader and premier.

2:06 Alberta premier Danielle Smith defends separatism referendum

In contrast, 34 per cent say they believe the main motivation is to give Albertans a chance to have their say on the province’s future, which is the reasoning Smith gave on May 21 when announcing the separatism question would be added to the referendum on immigration and the Constitution she had previously announced in February.

“Both sides of the question are actually confused about what the premier’s motive is,” Bricker said.

Views diverge sharply depending on political allegiance. Two-thirds of UCP supporters, 67 per cent, say Smith’s motivation is to allow a public voice — while 25 per cent say it’s to protect her job.

Among NDP supporters, the pattern reverses: 81 per cent say she’s motivated by job protection and only 12 per cent attribute it to democratic considerations.

Undecided voters are more likely to see the move as politically motivated, though a significant portion remain unsure.

The poll suggests Alberta’s political landscape remains highly competitive.

Among decided voters, the UCP holds a narrow lead, with 48 per cent support compared with 45 per cent for the NDP. Six per cent of respondents indicate support for other parties.

Regionally, the numbers show a nearly even split in Alberta’s two main cities amongst decided voters.

In Calgary, the NDP has 48 per cent support among decided voters, compared with 47 per cent for the UCP. In Edmonton, the NDP leads with 48 per cent to the UCP’s 44 per cent.

Outside those urban centres, the UCP holds a stronger advantage, leading by 16 points, with 56 per cent support compared with 40 per cent for the NDP.

“The race, if it was held today in terms of popular vote, looks like it would be pretty close,” Bricker said.

“But since the the UCP has a pretty considerable lead outside of the cities, which is how you win elections in the province of Alberta, they would probably still be in a pretty good position to form a government.”

The political support results exclude roughly 25 per cent of Albertans who say they are undecided or will not vote.

The Ipsos poll also asked several questions about support for separatism, which has declined since the beginning of the year.

The data found 18 per cent of Albertans support leaving Canada — down 10 points from January, when 28 per cent of Albertans said they backed separation.

Bricker noted it’s important to remember for the most part, Albertans aren’t 100 per cent on either end of the spectrum.

“It’s not like people are all wildly enthusiastic about Canada or wildly enthusiastic of separatism. There’s a continuum here,” he said.

That previous Ipsos poll in January found about three in 10 residents supported independence, but a deeper dive revealed that when faced with the costs and consequences of doing so, only half of those interested in separatism are truly committed to following through.

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For roughly half of separatist supporters, Ipsos found independence was more a political message to Ottawa than a plan they are prepared to suffer costs and sacrifices to achieve.

As the idea of holding a vote to split from Canada has gone from a vague idea to a more concrete plan, support for leaving has dropped — but that doesn’t mean the dissatisfaction has as well.

“There’s a lot of people who would vote for Alberta staying in Canada, that would like to see the relationship between Alberta and Canada change.

Multiple pollsters have asked Albertans and Canadians a range of similar questions to do with separatism and the data shows the needle has not budged much poll to poll, from month to month.

An Angus Reid Institute survey, conducted from May 22–24 after the province announced it was adding the 10th question to the referendum, found 60 per cent of respondents would vote to stay in Confederation, while 35 per cent said they would support beginning the process of separation.

A different poll in February by the Angus Reid Institute also found support for independence amongst the general public was at three in 10.

Albertans will go to the polls to vote in the 10-question referendum on Monday, Oct. 19.

The Ipsos poll was conducted May 28 to June 1, 2026 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,500 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed online, including 600 Alberta residents and 900 people from the rest of Canada. The data was statistically weighted by region, age, gender and education to ensure the sample composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data. The precision of Ipsos polls containing online data is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the overall poll of 1,500 Canadians is accurate to within +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all adult Canadian residents been polled. Questions asked of Albertans only (n=600) have a credibility interval of +/- 4.9 percentage points. Questions asked of Canadians outside Alberta (n=900) have a credibility interval of +/- 4.0 percentage points. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.