Makerfield by-election results LIVE: Polls CLOSE as Andy Burnham vows to 'carry fight forward' if he wins

The Conservatives have won control of Aberdeen South from the SNP. It means Scottish Tory MSP Douglas Lumsden will take a seat in Westminster.

While, The SNP have held the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry constituency. The party's candidate, Lara Bird, won a majority and 40.4% of the vote.

The former Transport Secretary, a key member of Mr Burnham's campaign, said: "He's put a message of hope to the people of Makerfield... And we are quietly confident that the people of Makerfield have responded well to that message."

She went on: "Well, look, I don't want to preempt the result, but we are we are optimistic and confident about the result. We believe that the people of Makerfield have responded to that message of hope and optimism. They sent a very, very clear message just six weeks ago at the local elections, voting around 50% across all eight wards, for Reform here.

"But it looks like they have responded very positively to Andy's campaign. And I think that shows what can happen if we take on reform and take that positive message to the country beyond Makerfield as well."

Ms Haigh said Mr Burnham will not challenge the PM "in the immediate aftermath" of the by-election if he wins.And she said that if Mr Starmer does not step aside, then the UK is doomed to having a Reform PM at the next general election. But asked what she would like to see the Prime Minister do, the former frontbencher said: "I hope that he will consider an orderly and managed transition.

"We have said that the party is in an existential crisis and things cannot continue, and it was quite clear after the local elections, unfortunately, that he considered that business as usual would suffice. And he (Mr Burnham) has potentially shown tonight that what a change Labour Party can bring and how we can beat back the rise of Reform. Because without that optimism and without that on the ballot paper then we will see a Reform Prime Minister at the next general election."

Andy Burnham is likely to discuss the Labour leadership situation directly with Sir Keir Starmer if he wins the Makerfield by-election, a Cabinet minister said.

Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy said Mr Burnham deserves to be heard “loud and clear at the top of politics” if he succeeds in fighting off the challenge from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in the seat.

If Mr Burnham does hold Makerfield for Labour, he is expected to use his return to the Commons to launch an effort to oust the Prime Minister.

Ms Nandy, who insisted she still supports the Prime Minister, said Mr Burnham was capable of winning over voters in a way that no other Labour politician could. She said: “If Andy wins tonight I’m sure there’ll be a conversation with the Prime Minister. I’m sure the Prime Minister will want to call to congratulate him, in fact, I know he will, and I know that they’ll have then have a conversation about what comes next.

“The Prime Minister has already signalled that he would like to extend a hand of friendship to Andy to make sure that he’s part of the team. I think that’s a conversation they need to have.”

Cabinet minister Lisa Nandy said it was “far too early to get into what Andy Burnham might do next and what might happen next” but he deserved to be heard “loud and clear at the top of politics”.

The Culture Secretary told Sky News: “If Andy Burnham can beat Reform in this by-election, he will have done something that, frankly, no other Labour politician in the country could have done.“Seven weeks ago, I can’t tell you what it was like knocking on doors around here. It was a completely different experience, door knocking for Andy Burnham. And that’s why I say that he has to be heard loud and clear in what comes next.”She added: ” I want us to pull together as a team. I want voices like Andy’s to be heard loud and clear at the top of politics. “

The official turnout for the Makerfield by-election was 58.75%, with 45,510 votes being cast.

The last time a by-election had a higher turnout was the contest in Brecon & Radnorshire in August 2019, which saw the Liberal Democrats win the seat from the Conservatives.

The BBC's election guru John Curtice says there's talk of voter turnout in Makerfield being between 60 and 65% - compared to the 52.5% turnout for the 2024 general election.

Curtice said: "The last time the turnout was higher in a by-election than in the preceding general election you have to go back to 1982 and the by-election Glasgow Hillhead.

"It's well over 40 years since we've had an increase in turnout in a by-election."

Asked if he might have split the vote on the right and allowed Labour's Andy Burnham to be elected, Lowe told Sky News: "We'll see what happens. We don't know the outcome yet but if it does in a democratic election, you put yourself up as a candidate and you say what you're going to do and you let people vote for you. That's democracy.

"I'm not worried about this vote-splitting narrative, which may or may not have had some effect at the end of the campaign. I'm not interested in that. What I'm interested in is democracy."

Robert Kenyon is widely seen as the main challenger to Labour's Andy Burnham. He has said he is "confident of a big vote" for his party tonight.

A Reform source at the Makerfield count said it was “way too early and too close to call”.He said canvassing had been “really positive”, but they would have a better idea of how the party had done after the verification process was complete

Lord David Blunkett, a party member for 60 years, says - whatever happens tonight - his party is in "a deep mess".

He tells BBC Newsnight that the party is in a "massive pickle" as the current government is "deeply unpopular". He says Labour "would have to have a complete rethink".

The Reform leader was in Makerfield earlier in the day, so may well still be nearby. But he may only put in an appearance if his candidate, Rob Kenyon, is successful.

Over recent weeks Mr Farage has been accused of hiding away from scrutiny. At one point Westminster journalists received invite after invite to Reform press conferences, where Mr Farage would shoot the breeze with his latest policy musings.But that stopped in late April, when it emerged he had accepted £5million from a crypto billionaire, Christopher Harborne before the 2024 election.

That gift is currently being investigated by the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner. Although Mr Farage has made media appearances since, many reporters - The Mirror included - would love the opportunity to put questions directly to him.At a press conference last week, his No2, Richard Tice, declined to rule out any other Reform figures receiving massive undeclared gifts.

Read the full story here.

We could know the critical by-election results within the next four hours.

The Mirror undestands the latest estimate is between 3am and 4am. The verification of ballots started shortly after 10pm.

Sources believe it is a high turnout for a by-election, between 60-65 per cent.

Unlike the nearby Gorton and Denton by-election in February, the Green Party has not been campaigning as aggressively this time around.

But the party has sounded a word of warning as the polls close - saying a Reform victory would be a catastrophe and saying Andy Burnham must do better to deliver change.

A party spokesman said: "Whatever the outcome of this by-election, it's clear people are desperate for real change.

"It will be a disaster for the people of Makerfield and the country if Reform’s candidate, with his history of misogynist views and Reform’s divisive policies wins out.

"Andy Burnham also needs to do much better if he is to fulfil his campaign promise of change. Throughout the campaign, he u-turned and u-turned on crucial issues for the country, pledging to stick to the failed fiscal rules, to make Labour’s settled status policies even crueller, failing to promise electoral reform before the general election and to take water and energy into public ownership."

And he added: "Unless Andy Burnham listens to the cry for change from the doorsteps of Makerfield, he is quickly going to find himself in the same status quo fuelled hole that Keir Starmer has ended up in."

As the polls closed, the final boxes of ballot papers were sent on their way.

The count is gathering pace, as our photo from inside shows.

Has Andy Burnham done enough to win the Makerfield by-election? It won't be too long until we find out.

The polls have closed, now all we can do is wait.

Labour's deputy leader, Lucy Powell, said: "Our great candidate, Andy Burnham, and our fantastic Labour team have run a positive campaign focused on the people of the Makerfield constituency.

“We knew this would be a tough fight, given Reform did so well here just a few weeks ago, but the Labour movement came together to show we are well up for that fight.

"While it will be some hours before we know the result, I want to say a huge thank you to the hundreds and hundreds of activists and volunteers who have helped with this campaign.

"Together, we’ve spoken to a record number of residents and shared our Labour message of hope and optimism.

“Labour will continue working every day for the people of this country, putting our values into action and delivering the fairer future communities want to see.”

That's it, and now Andy Burnham plays the waiting game.

Has he done enough to win the Makerfield by-election? Well, it won't be too long until we find out.

Should the results go his way, he will launch a leadership challenge to Sir Keir Starmer "within weeks" it is claimed.

The PM said yesterday that he was willing to offer the Mayor of Greater Manchester a “big” job in his Government should Mr Burnham win, but allies said he was not interested in the offer.

There's still 10 minutes to go before the polls close, but the centre where the count is being held is already starting to fill.

It's not an understatement to say this is the most consequential by-election we've seen in modern times. Whichever way it goes, it will likely be a sliding doors moment for the country.

If Andy Burnham is successful, he will immediately be the frontrunner to be the next Prime Minister, potentially propelling Labour into a new era. But if he loses to Reform, it would be devastating for the Labour Party and an enormous scalp for Nigel Farage.

Many within the Labour fold have come to view the King of the North as a saviour figure. He's unsullied by the difficult last two years, but has a record of holding top jobs under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

There isn't a huge margin for error, however. Labour won with a majority of 5,399 in Makerfield at the general election, but Reform still secured more than 12,000 votes.

If Andy Burnham does win the Makerfield by-election, he is unlikely to hang around.

He intends on challenging Sir Keir Starmer for the keys to Number 10 "within weeks", sources suggest.

Wes Streeting, the former health secretary, says if Mr Burnham does stand against the PM, then he will join the contest.

Andy Burnham has taken to X with 45 minutes left at the polls.

He urged his constituents to get out and "vote for hope" with a video on the social media platform.

He has declared the race a chance to "write a new script for Britain" as he faces an anxious wait for the results of the Makerfield by-election,

A Liberal Democrat MP has had the whip suspended pending the outcome of a police investigation, it has been announced.

Cameron Thomas was arrested by Gloucestershire Police on Wednesday night.

A Lib Dem spokesperson said the party was “unable to comment further” while an “investigation is ongoing” but did confirm his suspension.

A party spokesperson said: "Cameron Thomas MP has had the party whip suspended pending the outcome of a police investigation.

"We are unable to comment further while the police investigation is ongoing."

As time runs out for people to vote, Andy Burnham's team have urged supporters to get to polling stations.

More news away from the contest, with Keir Starmer throwing his weight behind the Mirror’s water safety campaign after a number of "deeply concerning" water-related deaths in recent weeks.

The Prime Minister said “it’s hard to imagine” how parents must feel after losing their children in water tragedies in the recent heatwave. He vowed the Government would do “whatever we can” to support the Mirror’s Save Lives for Sam campaign and take any further measures to keep people safe.

Polls close at 10pm in the by-election, with the result expected between 3-4am. It could be earlier if the contest is not as close as expected, or even later if Reform exceed expectations.

In the limited polling that's been done in the seat, Mr Burnham has been the favourite.

A Reform UK MP has been branded “irresponsible” after suggesting that England’s football team needs to keep winning games in the World Cup to prevent a spike in incidents of domestic abuse.

Sarah Pochin, the Reform MP for Runcorn and Helsby, made the claim in a short video message posted on social media the day after England won their first World Cup game 4-2 to Croatia.

“England won the football last night, and thank goodness they did,” she said.

Ms Pochin added: “Because on the occasions that England lose their football matches, the incidences of domestic violence go through the roof. So boys, keep winning.”

Leading charities which support domestic abuse victims were among those who criticised Ms Pochin’s remarks.

Farah Nazeer, chief executive of Women’s Aid, said: “Football does not cause domestic abuse – it is a choice that is made by the abuser, time and again, regardless of whether a team wins or loses a match."

A crucial thing for Reform going forward will be how well Restore do in the contest.

Rupert Lowe's party, backed by Elon Musk, had more than 1000 activists in the seat last weekend, and some polls predict they will be the difference.

Here is the expert view on Restore, and what they might mean for Nigel Farage's fortunes going forward.