California Democrats prepare redistricting effort to counter Texas GOP

California Democrats are preparing to counter Republicans' attempt to reshape a series of Texas congressional districts for political advantage in a back and forth that could define next year's midterm elections and with it, the final two years of President Trump's second term.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom's office has announced plans for a major state announcement Thursday as national tensions rage over changing congressional lines mid-decade. Districts are usually redrawn after the decennial census. Newsom has vowed his state would respond after Texas Republicans released plans earlier this summer to redraw five seats held by Democrats and make them more favorable to the GOP.

"If you will not stand down, I will be forced to lead an effort to redraw the maps in California to offset the rigging of maps in red states," Mr. Newsom said in a recent letter to the president.

Newsom's team participated in a series of conversations with the state's Democratic congressional delegation and the California Legislature as drafts of possible maps were discussed. According to U.S. Democratic Rep. Zoe Lofgren of California, the conversations were initially centered on the question, "Is this even conceptually possible?"

California Democrats concluded that it was possible to gain five Democratic seats to counter Texas' gains, according to Lofgren. "I'm confident that if we need to move forward, we will do that successfully. There's tremendous unity on the Democratic side."

Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress and hold the White House. At the moment, if Democrats were to win back as few as three seats in next year's midterms, they could flip control of the House. That path would be threatened however if Republicans and Mr. Trump succeed in convincing GOP-led states like Texas, Indiana and Missouri to take some of their Democratic-held districts and alter them to favor Republicans instead.

The potential developments in California Thursday come as Texas Republicans struggle to pass the maps that have become a national issue. Breakaway state House Democrats fled Texas earlier this month, denying the chamber the quorum it needed to take action on the new maps during a special legislative session.

Since then, national Democrats have sought to call attention to what Republicans are trying to do in Texas, even as it's opened the left up to accusations of hypocrisy. During the standoff, some Texas Democrats have spoken out from Illinois, a blue state that was criticized for drawing its congressional maps after the 2020 Census to give Democrats the advantage.

For both sides, the issue of congressional districts has become even more starkly partisan this summer. Various attempts have also been made in court to bring state House Democrats back to Texas, or to create a path that will help Republicans get their way.

During a floor speech — before the maps passed the Texas Senate earlier this week in what amounted to a moot effort, given the House's obstacles — Republican Phil King bluntly said an objective of his "was to support a plan that, simply put, elects more Republicans to the U.S. Congress."

With the special session in Texas set to end in just a few days, Republicans have been adamant about eventually passing the maps, even if it takes more time and special sessions. With Democratic power limited in the state, there is a sense that Republicans will eventually be able to get their way.

But the situation has left an opening for Newsom, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, to create a new front in the political fight, given that Democrats may have a path to redrawing Republican-held congressional districts in the blue state of California.

But California's effort will likely prove to be far more difficult and time intensive than the Republican-led push in Texas.

In California, only nine of the state's 52 U.S. House districts are held by Republicans. Earlier this century, voters in the state signed off on putting in the state's constitution an independent citizens redistricting commission to decide new boundaries following the once a decade census process.

The state-level differences between Democrat-led California and Republican-led-Texas essentially makes it harder for California Democrats to redraw districts in their state than it currently is for Texas Republicans. In Texas, GOP leaders and Mr. Trump allies just need to go through the normal legislative process to change districts.

Because of California's constitution, changing the redistricting process in the state ahead of the 2026 midterms would likely require a new amendment. To take effect, it would need to be passed by a two-thirds vote in both the Assembly and Senate, and then be approved by California voters in an election. That election could prove costly, with major implications for the country on the line.

California lawmakers are scheduled to return to Sacramento on Aug. 18 amid the redistricting talk. The Legislature will have five days to conduct public hearings and formalize the process.