Alberta separatism: 60% want to stay in Canada, 35% support leaving — and many confused
A majority of Albertans would vote to remain in Canada if a separatism referendum were held today, according to a new poll.
At the same time, many are also confused by the wording of the question Premier Danielle Smith proposed to be added to this fall’s provincial referendum.
The Angus Reid Institute survey, conducted from May 22–24 after the province announced it was adding a 10th question to the referendum, found 60 per cent of respondents would vote to stay in Confederation, while 35 per cent said they would support beginning the process of separation.
That needle has barely budged in months: In January, an Ipsos poll found about three in 10 residents supported independence, but a deeper dive revealed that when faced with the costs and consequences of doing so, only half of those interested in separatism are truly committed to following through.
A different poll in February by the Angus Reid Institute also found support for independence amongst the general public was at three in 10.
The additional question will be: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
University of Saskatchewan public policy political analyst Ken Coates said the question carries significant consequences and should not be taken lightly.
“The whole matter of separation is a fundamental question about the future of the province and the future of the country — your standard of living, your quality of life, a whole bunch of things,” Coates said.
Angus Reid said while Smith explained the 37-word question was designed to “appease both sides of the debate,” 51 per cent of respondents said they found the question confusing and 56 per cent said they were dissatisfied with how Smith has handled the issue.
The criticism came from nearly all NDP voters (86 per cent), Angus Reid said — but also notably from nearly one-third (28 per cent) of past UCP voters — a significant erosion within her own base.
Coates said he believes the premier’s approach to the issue is reasonable.
Despite the apparent support for staying in Canada, the new Angus Reid poll suggests uncertainty among voters.
The numbers varied more depending on where the respondent lives, their age and gender, and how their political affiliations lie.
Men were more likely (39 per cent) to support leaving Alberta than women (31 per cent.) The older the respondent, the more likely they were to support beginning the separation process.
People who live in Edmonton were 73 per cent in support voting to stay in Canada, while in Calgary that number dropped to 58 per cent, and in the rest of Alberta is was an event split of 48 per cent for and against, with a few people undecided.
Perhaps not surprising, the numbers contrasted sharply depending on if a respondent voted for the right-leaning UCP or the left-leaning NDP.
NDP supporters were 90 per cent against leaving/in support of staying in Canada, with just seven per cent in support of separation and a handful unsure.
UCP supporters, meanwhile, were 64 per cent in support of leaving Canada, 30 per cent in favor of staying, and 8.5 per cent were unsure.
Angus Reid’s split is most dramatic by separation intent: those who would vote to stay overwhelmingly disapprove (79 per cent poorly), while those who would vote to leave are equally critical from the opposite direction (85 per cent poorly), feeling Smith isn’t truly on the separatists’ side.
Coates said the average level of support for separation reflected in the poll is notable.
“The thought that 30 per cent — that one people, in one province would want out of Confederation, other than Quebec, where it’s become the norm — is absolutely staggering.
Angus Reid said Albertans have a range of options on why Smith proposed adding the question.
A majority of Albertans (58 per cent) agree Smith’s only reason for calling the referendum is to appease the separatists within the UCP.
Past NDP voters agree in large numbers (84 per cent), while most past UCP voters disagree (55 per cent). Even so, Angus Reid said one-third of UCP voters (33 per cent) are sympathetic to the view that the referendum was a political calculation to manage her party’s separatist wing.
When asked what Smith actually wants, 40 per cent of Albertans said she doesn’t care what happens as long as she stays in power — with just 31 per cent believing she genuinely wants Alberta to remain in Canada.
The Angus Reid Institute said this latest polling indicates many people have already made up their minds and won’t be swayed — supporters of both sides of the issue report strong commitment to their positions, with 75 to 78 per cent saying they are absolutely or mostly committed to their referendum vote choice.
Last week, the premier said with so many Albertans weighing in on the issue, it was time to put it to a vote and move on.
Smith said she would honour the referendum’s outcome and hopes separatist advocates “would honour the outcome as well.”
But Angus Reid said most Albertans are skeptical.
Seven in 10 (69 per cent) believe that if Albertans vote “No” to independence in October, separatists will never accept the result. Those who would themselves vote to stay in Canada are even more convinced of this (83 per cent).
Among those who would vote to leave Canada in a hypothetical separation referendum, opinion is split — 41 per cent agree separatists would reject a loss, while 45 per cent believe they would accept it.
Campaigns on both sides of the question began over the weekend, with voters being urged to cast their ballots on Oct. 19.
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from May 22–24, 2026, among a randomized sample of 800 Albertan adults. Respondents are drawn from the Angus Reid Forum. This sample was weighted to be representative of adults provincewide according to region, gender, age, household income, and education, based on the Canadian census. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/– 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
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