Hot bet summer? Soon Canadians will be able to trade on prediction markets

Prediction markets, a fast-growing corner of financial technology that lets users wager on real-world events, are coming to Canadian retail investors through Wealthsimple this summer.

The Toronto-based online financial services company says it is beta testing a new app, Wealthsimple Predict, that will offer clients access to event contracts through the U.S. prediction market Kalshi.

The launch follows limited approval from Canadian regulators for prediction-market trading tied to economic indicators, financial markets and climate trends — but not sports, elections or pop culture.

"Prediction markets are the fastest-growing segment of global financial markets," Brett Huneycutt, co-founder and chief product officer, of Wealthsimple, said in a statement.

Prediction markets operate like financial exchanges, allowing users to bet on what are known as event contracts — simple yes-or-no or higher-or-lower wagers on the outcome of real-world events.

Until recently, Canadians had limited access to prediction markets, which regulators had not approved for broad retail trading. This meant that Canadians trying to use the platforms often did so by hiding their geographic location with a VPN service.

This spring, prediction markets received limited approval to operate in Canada. Wealthsimple says it will help users understand the key risks of these trades, including "the possibility of losing the full value of a position."

Kalshi and Polymarket, the other dominant player in the sector, have experienced explosive growth over the last two years.

A report pegged the value of bets placed on the top five prediction markets at about $100 million US in 2024. As of April 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket had a combined monthly global trading volume of about $24 billion, according to a Pew Research Center analysis.

Kalshi's rise has been driven largely by wagers on sports, which are estimated to make up 90 per cent of the fees it collects on trades. Its business has also been boosted by integration into news coverage with media giants such as CNN, where prediction markets are presented as an alternative to polling results.

Polymarket's profile has been elevated in part by deals to feature odds and predictions during the Golden Globes, a high-profile joke by comedian Trevor Noah and coverage by 60 Minutes on CBS News.

Beyond sports, popular markets on Kalshi and Polymarket include pop culture, politics, international conflict, cryptocurrency, scientific and technological developments, economic indicators, financial markets and climate.

Most of those trade options will not be available to Weathsimple's users. The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization has approved prediction markets only for economic indicators, financial markets and climate.

Wealthsimple says those areas will include access to almost 4,000 event contracts trading on Kalshi's platform when the company launches its prediction markets app.

For Andrew Kim, a psychology professor and gambling and addictions expert at Toronto Metropolitan University, the fact that sports events and pop culture are not approved for prediction markets in Canada is a relief.

For gamblers, he believes "the allure would be fairly minimal and the majority of sports bettors won't be likely to trade on these markets, and if so, it may not be for long."

Some experts say prediction markets can have legitimate uses and reveal "the wisdom of the crowd" when there are enough investors. But there are also concerns about their vulnerability to insider trading.

There have been several high-profile suspicious trades on prediction markets, including a bet made about the capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in early 2026.

In that case, a U.S. special forces soldier pleaded not guilty on charges that he used classified information about a U.S. military mission to capture Maduro, then placed a bet on Polymarket that won more than $400,000 US.