BBC Polling guru John Curtice issues grave warning to Burnham after huge victory

Labour may be giddy from their Makerfield victory but polling guru Sir John Curtice has warned them not to get too excited. The warning came fresh on the heels of the party's seismic win in the Greater Manchester seat which saw Andy Burnham surge to victory. He is now expected to mount a challenge against Sir Keir Starmer in a play to try and become Prime Minister.

Mr Burnham secured a 9,231 majority over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon in a race called after the previous Labour MP, Josh Simons, stepped aside to let the Mayor return to Parliament. Upon winning, Mr Burnham told fans and supporters that last May the area had "made a loud cry for change" when it had voted Reform.

"In this campaign, we have begun to answer that, but I do say to my own party, this is a final chance to change," he added, in what has been seen as a warning shot to Downing Street.

But Sir John has warned that the Makerfield victory was not likely to lead to a nationwide surge in Labour’s popularity.

Speaking on the BBC, he said: "Can this be replicated elsewhere? First thing to note, between them the Conservatives, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats got no more than 3% of the vote.

"I think one has to say that there are two crucial elements to Mr Burnham’s success. The first is the apparent readiness of those who are minded to vote for parties other than Reform, or indeed Restore Britain, their readiness to fall in and vote for Mr Burnham."

Restore Britain, led by former Reform UK MP Rupert Lowe, secured 7 per cent of the vote, with Reform 20 per cent behind Labour.

Sir John added: "The second element of Mr Burnham’s success is that in a sense he was riding two horses at once. He was both riding as the person who was trying to appeal to the traditional Labour vote […] and he was also able to appeal to those who wanted to see the back of Keir Starmer.

"The question you have to ask yourself is when Mr Burnham becomes prime minister, how easy will that trick be to repeat? Because once he’s his own man, he’s not going to be able to campaign against himself in the way he’s campaigned against Keir Starmer.

"Bear in mind the fact that because he is so popular within Manchester, the extent to which his popularity can be extended across the whole of the country. All of this is for Mr Burnham to prove – it looks as if he will get the opportunity to prove it but I don’t think we should assume that there is going to be suddenly a dramatic change in the standing of the Labour party in the national opinion polls."