Alberta government commissions $1.5M economic analysis and panel on cost of separation

Alberta's government said Friday it has picked the University of Calgary to study the potential costs if the province were to leave Canada.

The province has also formed what it calls an expert advisory panel to review the university's report and provide a separate assessment. The cost of the report and the panel could be up to $1.5 million, according to Juliana Rodriguez, press secretary to Finance Minister Jason Nixon.

“It is important that Albertans make this decision based on clear and factual information given the significant potential impacts it could have on their lives, businesses and futures,” Rodriguez said in an email.

She said the cost reflects the importance of the work and calibre of the advisers.

The panel is led by economist Jack Mintz, a go-to expert for Alberta conservative governments who has served on several advisory groups and panels in recent decades.

It also includes business leaders and former politicians Janice MacKinnon, a former NDP finance minister in Saskatchewan, and Ted Morton, a former Progressive Conservative finance minister in Alberta.

In 2001, Morton was a signatory to the infamous Firewall Letter sent by Stephen Harper — before he became prime minister — to then-Alberta premier Ralph Klein. It called on Klein to take a number of steps to give Alberta more independence from Ottawa.

Business Council of Alberta president Adam Legge and Cenovus Energy board chair Alex Pourbaix are also on the panel, according to the province.

The provincial government said in a news release that the economic panel's involvement "will allow for further and potentially differing views to be shared, ensuring Albertans are equipped with all the facts."

In an interview with CBC News, University of Calgary School of Public Policy director Martha Hall Findlay, a former MP, said the school is still working out who will perform the analysis and which outside experts it might call upon.

Hall Findlay said the report will assume Alberta separation is legally possible, and calculate the potential costs of Alberta running the services the federal government now provides, including producing passports. Other federal services Albertans rely upon include the regulation of aviation, First Nations health and social benefits, the military, management of national parks, the RCMP, tax collection and more.

“It has to be a good report, and it has to be done in time for Albertans to really engage in the discussions necessary for informed votes in the referendum,” Hall Findlay said.

The school will not examine the legal aspects of a possible secession, she said.

The provincial government’s statement said the researchers will finish the report by the end of the summer. The five-member advisory panel will add their own reflections, but the report will be completed independently of government, the news release said.

Hall Findlay said the panellists may have good ideas the researchers want to include in their analysis.

Rodriguez said the exercise is worth the expense because other attempts at estimating the costs of a transition — and the financial risks and benefits — have yielded different results, and their authors have acknowledged methodological limitations.

“That is why Alberta’s government chose renowned and respected economists, public policy experts and business leaders to give Albertans an independent, objective and evidence-based analysis they can trust,” she wrote.

Nixon and Premier Danielle Smith have hinted at the report in recent weeks.

They have said Albertans deserve to be informed ahead of the province's Oct. 19 referendum, which will see Albertans vote on remaining in Canada or beginning the process to have a second, binding vote on separation.

Smith estimated earlier this month that quitting Confederation could cost the province $400 billion — including Alberta's share of the national debt, NATO commitments, forming armed forces and other startup costs — plus an annual price tag of up to $50 billion.

Alberta’s 2026-27 provincial budget is about $84 billion.

Separatist leaders have pushed back on Smith's math, claiming that forming a new country would come with no more than $5.7 billion in startup costs and an independent Alberta would post surpluses once tax revenue stops going to Ottawa.

NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi told CBC News on Friday that he believes the economic analysis is an unnecessary expense that benefits members of Smith’s inner circle.

“We know the costs of separation are enormous,” he said.

Nenshi said starting the work four months before the referendum date is far too late given how long separation has been part of the public discourse.

“I have enormous faith in the academics at the school of public policy, but what I don't understand is why there's a panel at all,” he said.

Nenshi has said Smith's decision to put Alberta's future in Canada to a vote at all is irresponsible.

On Friday he said he wrote to the director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) asking for public updates on potential foreign interference attempts between now and October.

He also asked CSIS to assess whether the vote could take place fairly in the wake of a massive data breach earlier this year involving a separatist group that Elections Alberta alleged had obtained Alberta's official voter list containing the names and addresses of nearly three million people.

Three separate investigations into the leak are underway, including by the RCMP and Elections Alberta.

Nenshi said he believes Smith isn’t taking the necessary steps to prevent or detect potential foreign interference in the referendum campaigns.

“We need to know what active investigations are going on, if there's something legitimate and what Albertans can do to protect themselves,” he said.

Smith said in March she applied for security clearance so that she could get briefings on possible foreign interference from CSIS. Last month, her office confirmed she had been given the top-level security clearance.

CBC News reached out to CSIS with questions on Friday but did not receive a response as of publication.

On a May 9 episode of CBC Radio's The House, CSIS director Dan Rogers said the agency is already monitoring for attempted interference.

“A referendum like the one in Alberta that may have a divisive effect on society is ripe for amplification for the sort of disinformation or foreign interference that we've seen from players like Russia in the past,” he said on the program.

Smith's press secretary, Sam Blackett, said Nenshi’s request was fearmongering.

Blackett noted the premier's clearance to receive briefings from CSIS on national security issues but did not provide details.

Blackett also said Public Safety and Emergency Services Minister Mike Ellis and Technology and Innovation Minister Nate Glubish have been tasked with monitoring "influence campaigns" and that they would share any concerns with authorities.

Smith has said she will be voting for Alberta to remain in Canada, and has cited two competing petitions on either side of the separation debate as being the reason she's putting the question to a vote.

A judge last month invalidated a petition from separatists, saying the government had not fulfilled the duty to consult with affected First Nations before allowing the petition to proceed. Elections Alberta has yet to verify the nearly 302,000 signatures that organizers of that petition have said they collected.

Smith's government filed an appeal of the judge's decision this week. The appeal says the province plans to argue the judge made 14 mistakes in her ruling.

The government has not yet released the cost of the fall referendum, which also includes nine other government-sponsored questions around immigration and constitutional reform.

Elections Alberta has said it will need to hire at least 60,000 workers to facilitate the vote and hand-count the ballots as required under provincial law, and has already begun recruitment.