Will Erdoğan be the candidate in twenty months?

The People's Alliance has been forced to prepare for the next election since the second round of the last presidential election was held on May 28, 2023. They were forced to do so because they, too, are aware that they cannot govern the country for long under this system. The local elections of March 31, 2024, further reinforced the Palace government's view. Since then, they have been working tirelessly to maintain their positions and, to that end, to prepare for the next election.

They have attempted, and are currently attempting, to capitalize on regional and national developments such as the overthrow of Assad in Syria and Trump's re-election as US President, using external winds as opportunities. Their attempt to frame regional developments as a way to expand their alliances within the Kurdish issue can also be interpreted as an attempt to hold on to this position.

Erdoğan wants to run again. He ran against the Constitution, and he intends to run against it a second time. This requires Parliament to call a snap election. This means the support of 360 MPs is needed. For this to happen, the People's Alliance must attract at least 35 more MPs. The CHP has announced that it does not consider a date after 2025 to be a snap election and will not support it. All that remains is the support of one of the İYİ Party, the DEM (Democratic Democratic Party), or all right-wing conservative parties. Judging by the photo that emerged at the opening of Parliament, it's safe to say Erdoğan has the ability to pull this off. It appears likely that Erdoğan will once again violate the Constitution and run for office in the upcoming election, which is likely to be held within the next 20 months.

ALL CONDITIONS MUST BE MEET

The AKP and MHP partnership has not been able to find any other alternative, at least for today.

In order for Erdoğan to reach the point where he can run and win elections, the next 20 months must pass in the way he wants.

For this to happen, multiple conditions must be met simultaneously:

• It must receive the support of imperialist countries and the West.

• The opposition must be divided into at least two.

• He has to attract at least one of the Kurds or nationalists who have been on the opposition side for the last 5-6 years.

• Politics must become a game played on the opposition's turf, as determined by Erdoğan. This means that the judicial intervention that has been going on for a year will continue.

• The fundamental problems of the people should not be discussed and movements seeking solutions to these issues should not emerge.

Of course, despite all this, it's crucial to ensure their internal relations remain intact. However, both domestic and international circumstances are forcing the alliance into contradictory positions on numerous issues. From Cyprus to relations with the US, nearly every major issue has begun to hinder the alliance. Their situation will become increasingly difficult with each passing day.

Turkey entered an election atmosphere as of autumn. From now on, the People's Alliance will take every step with the ballot box in mind. No one should expect any original ideas or to pull a rabbit out of a hat. The "absolute nullity" will end, and espionage will begin. Once that's over, they'll find another topic. Every step they take will be focused on keeping the five principles mentioned above together.

Under all these circumstances, it all comes down to what the opposition will do.

BUT 'CHANGE' MAKES YOU DREAM

In his social media post, dear Ozan Gündoğdu said, “The order established by the AKP doesn't bring any peace to any of us, and we don't have a solid answer to the question, 'Who should take over this system?' We are helplessly getting used to this corrupt system and rotting away. We've lost our joy, we're just living and getting by. Isn't there a political movement that can make us dream?” and drew quite a bit of backlash. Objections along the lines of, "The address and the name are clear," are particularly strong among CHP voters.

I have a small objection to dear Ozan. While I agree with the assessments regarding the AKP era, any "dream" must be outside this system for people to embrace it and succeed. The issue has long gone beyond simply replacing one party with another, or one man with another. No matter who you bring in, you can't dream, and you can't take back your joy.

No individual or party that doesn't prioritize changing the existing order can defeat the Palace government. It must be acknowledged that Erdoğan and Bahçeli are the best guardians of this order. It's impossible to find anyone who can surpass them. Two individuals are this very order. Therefore, against one man, many young people, many women, many workers; against a single party, many organizations; against a single voice, many voices, and, of course, the harmony that emerges from the union of these voices.

THE BROTHERHOOD OF OBJECTION AND THE UNITY OF THE OPPOSITION

Umur Talu's article in T24 is thought-provoking in this discussion. After giving examples from struggles taking place in Türkiye, Talu concludes by saying, "The barricade of solidarity and struggle, against all kinds of barricades, has existed in struggles, both in words and in practice, for centuries. This is the legacy. Hope sometimes sleeps and sometimes awakens within it!" To hope, to dream, and to take action.

Undoubtedly, doing this with a political goal and program.

We have 20 critical months ahead. These days will determine not only politics but also the future of the country. The lines have become clear. As seen in the example of Yeni Şafak, which arrested people under absurd investigations and attacked television channels and companies, the owners of the system, distrusted even by their own colleagues, represent the old, the worn-out, and the obsolete in Türkiye. It's time for the owners of goodness, beauty, and the new to step forward with determination.