The cost of the trade war: 25 thousand industrial workers' jobs at risk!

The trade war between Washington and Beijing could lead to significant job losses in German industry, according to research by Allianz Trade.

Allianz Trade has published its analysis of the impact of the trade war between the US and China on the German economy.

Accordingly, if an agreement cannot be reached in the trade war between the US and China, Chinese exporters will increasingly turn to European markets, especially Germany.

China will turn to Germany

“We estimate that 17,000 to 25,000 manufacturing jobs will be lost in Germany due to the increasing competition and Chinese goods directed specifically to Germany,” said Jasmin Gröschl, senior economist at Allianz Trade.

Gröschl said mechanical engineering, the textile industry, non-metallic mineral products, electronics, computers and the motor vehicle industry were particularly at risk, adding that this equated to around 0.2% to 0.3% of the total employment in German industry of 8 million people.

Stating that global trade dynamics have become unbalanced due to the tariff war, Gröschl said, “German companies are under pressure on two fronts. First, increasing competition and supply chains closely linked to China, and second, the strong export-oriented German business model, which increasingly affects foreign markets. This applies to both growing markets and other EU countries. Especially in high-quality and demanding sectors, products imported from China are increasingly competing with German goods.”

China's loss could reach $239 billion

On the other hand, according to Allianz Trade analysis, without bilateral agreements, China’s export losses to the US could be as much as $239 billion. Chinese companies will likely try to enter other international sales markets and therefore could export about $ 80 billion to the European Union (EU).

If no agreement is reached on tariffs, around $33 billion worth of goods could enter Germany over the next three years, increasing Germany's total imports by 2.5 percent, the study said.