Slowing annual inflation in Russia and the Fed's key rate cut. Financial market review, September 17

During the week of September 9–15, annual consumer inflation in Russia slowed to 8.02%, down from 8.1% the previous week. The US central bank cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points.

Currency

The Chinese yuan rose on the Moscow Exchange during the trading session on September 17. By 7:00 PM Moscow time, the yuan was at 11.68 rubles, 6 kopecks higher than the previous trading close.

The official exchange rate of the US dollar against the ruble, announced by the Bank of Russia on September 18, increased by 0.16 rubles to 82.99 rubles. The official exchange rate of the euro against the ruble, announced by the Bank of Russia on September 18, increased by 0.41 rubles to 98.30 rubles.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation calculates official exchange rates based on data from credit institutions' reports on the results of interbank conversion transactions on the over-the-counter foreign exchange market.

On the global currency market, the dollar index against a basket of six major currencies (DXY) fell and by 9:30 PM Moscow time was around 96.4 points.

Following its September meeting, the US Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate for the first time since the end of 2024 – by 25 basis points, to 4-4.25% per annum, according to a press release from the regulator. The decision was in line with the expectations of most analysts and economists.

Members of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee generally expect the benchmark interest rate to be between 3.5% and 3.75% by the end of this year. Of the 19 participants at the meeting, nine expect the rate to be between 3.5% and 3.75%, six expect it to be between 4% and 4.25%, two expect it to be between 3.75% and 4%, and one each expects it to be between 4.25% and 4.5%, and one expects it to be between 2.75% and 3%.

The US Federal Reserve maintained its inflation and unemployment forecast for the current year and also raised its GDP growth forecast, according to the regulator's data. The Fed forecasts that inflation in the US in 2025 will remain at 3%, as expected in June. In 2026, consumer price growth is projected at 2.6%, up from 2.4%. Unemployment in the US will be 4.5% this year, as previously projected. Next year, the Fed expects the rate to be 4.4%, up from the 4.5% expected in June.

Expectations for the country's economic growth in 2025 have been increased to 1.6% from 1.4%, and for 2026 to 1.8% from the previous forecast of 1.6%.

Stock

The main trading session on the Moscow Exchange ended with gains in key indicators. The Moscow Exchange Index rose 0.4% to close at 2,814 points. The RTS Index rose 0.2% to close at 1,068 points.

Inflation expectations of the Russian population fell to 12.6% in September from 13.5% in August, reaching the lowest level since September 2024 (12.5%), according to an inFOM survey commissioned by the Bank of Russia. It was conducted from September 2 to 11, 2025.

The population's perceived inflation rate in September fell to 14.7% from 16.1%. This figure is now close to the September 2024 level (14.4%).

Consumer price growth from September 9 to 15 amounted to 0.04%, following a 0.10% increase from September 2 to 8 and a 0.08% decline from August 26 to September 1, Rosstat reported . Based on data for the first 15 days of September this year and last year, annual inflation in Russia slowed to 8.10% as of September 15, down from 8.16% on September 8, when calculated on a weekly basis.

Key US stock market indicators showed mixed results in the first half of the trading session. By 9:30 PM Moscow time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had risen 1%, the S&P 500 had gained about 0.1%, and the NASDAQ-100 had fallen 0.4%.

Oil

Oil prices fell on the evening of September 17. By 9:30 PM Moscow time, Brent crude futures on London's ICE Futures exchange were trading at around $68 per barrel. By that time, WTI crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were trading at around $64 per barrel.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 9.3 million barrels last week, reaching 415.4 million barrels as of September 12, 2025, the U.S. Department of Energy reported . The current inventory level is 5% below the five-year average for this time of year.