Brazilian Championship: Palmeiras sees its chances of winning the title increase after victory against Juventude.

Summary: Palmeiras increases its chances of winning the Brazilian Championship to 56.5% after victory against Juventude, while Flamengo remains in contention with 41%.

Palmeiras increased their chances of celebrating the 2025 Brazilian Championship title after a 2-0 victory against Juventude , this Sunday, December 2nd, away from home: Bruno Rodrigues and Felipe Anderson — the latter with a spectacular goal — secured the Verdão's triumph at Alfredo Jaconi, in Caxias (RS), in the 31st round.

According to a study conducted by the Department of Mathematics at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), the victory increased Palmeiras' chances of celebrating its 13th Brasileirão title to 56.5%: an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared to the 54.2% after the draw against Cruzeiro on October 26th, in the 30th round.

Following closely behind Palmeiras, Flamengo , who beat Sport 3-0 on Saturday, the 2nd, saw a slight decrease in their chances of winning the Brasileirão title, dropping from 41.4% to 41%.

At the bottom of the table, the fight to avoid relegation intensifies with each passing round. At the bottom, Sport has a 99.97% chance of playing in Série B in 2026, while Juventude has a 96.8% chance. Fortaleza, Vitória, and Santos are also battling to avoid relegation to the second division.

See the odds of winning the title and being relegated in the Brazilian Championship, according to the Department of Mathematics at UFMG.

To be a champion:

• Palmeiras: 56.5%
• Flamengo: 41%
• Cruzeiro: 2.3%
• Mirassol: 0.19%
• Bahia: 0.003%

To be relegated:

• Sport: 99.97%
• Youth: 96.8%
• Fortaleza: 79.7%
• Victory: 64.7%
• Santos: 33.2%
• International: 10%
• RB Bragantino: 9.3%
• Ceará: 2.9%
• Atlético-MG: 2.1%
• Grêmio: 1%
• São Paulo: 0.10%
• Corinthians: 0.033%
• Vasco da Gama: 0.004%