Largest emitter, but record holder in renewable energy: China's climate balance sheet.

China is the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases that threaten the planet, but it is also the country with the largest number of installed renewable energy sources and the largest number of electric vehicles in circulation.

AFP analyzes the climate commitments of the Asian giant ahead of COP30, the climate conference that begins next week in Belém, Pará:

– Emissions –

China will emit more than 30% of global greenhouse gases, representing approximately 15.6 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2024, according to the most recent UN data.

Both its total historical emissions and its per capita emissions remain lower than those of the United States, but are rapidly approaching them.

Nearly 60% of the electricity generated in China last year came from coal, a major source of pollution, although large renewable energy facilities are helping to meet its new demand.

The country is also a leader in the electric vehicle market, accounting for more than 70% of global production. Nearly half of all new cars in China were battery electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency.

– Reduction targets –

In September, Beijing announced its first quantifiable targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, committing to cutting emissions by 7% to 10% by 2035.

But it did not establish a reference year from which to measure the cuts. Experts point out that the Asian country needs to reduce emissions by about 30% compared to 2023 levels to prevent global temperatures from rising more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

However, there is hope that China will "promise little, deliver much," as it has done with some previous goals, including those related to renewable energy.

Beijing had already committed to peaking emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality three decades later. Some analysts believe that emissions have already peaked or are about to peak, thanks to increased use of renewable and nuclear energy.

– Renewable energy targets –

China's official climate roadmap, released this week, reaffirmed the goals announced in September by President Xi Jinping.

The plan was hailed by the UN climate chief, Simon Stiell, as "a significant moment" in the "collective climate effort".

It includes new targets for renewable energy, such as increasing solar and wind power capacity sixfold compared to 2020 levels, reaching 3,600 gigawatts (GW) by 2035.

China declared earlier this year that it currently has 1,482 GW of wind and solar capacity. To reach its new target, it would need to install about 200 GW of wind and solar capacity per year, significantly less than it added in 2024.

Although renewable energy growth may slow, analysts generally believe that China will likely meet, and exceed, its 2035 target ahead of schedule.

Fossil fuels, electric vehicles

Beijing aims to increase the proportion of non-fossil fuels in its total energy consumption to over 30% by 2035. This is considered an achievable and relatively modest commitment, given that recent forecasts already indicate it will reach 36% within a decade.

The Chinese president also pledged to ensure that "new energy vehicles," including electric cars, become the norm in new vehicle sales. It's fair to say this is already happening, as these types of vehicles account for more than 40% of new purchases.

Emissions trading, forest cover

China's new commitments include a promise to expand its carbon emissions trading system to encompass all high-emission sectors.

The system is already being expanded from the electricity sector to include heavy industry, such as cement, steel and aluminum, and authorities have indicated plans to extend it to even more sectors.

Beijing's commitment for 2035 also aims to reach 24 billion cubic meters of forest cover, compared to the current 20 billion, according to official data.

sah/ceg/dhw/arm/jvb/aa/fp