IMF growth forecast lower than the Government's

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the Portuguese economy will grow 1.9% this year and 2.1% next year. The Fund's forecast is more pessimistic than the government's, which in its State Budget projects growth of 2% and 2.3%.

According to the World Economic Outlook released this Tuesday, the IMF revised its growth estimates for this year downward, from the 2% forecast in April. The projection for 2026 has been revised upward from 1.7% to 2.1%.

Both estimates are below the estimate in the State Budget for 2026 (OE2026), where the PSD/CDS-PP Government predicts that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow 2% this year and 2.3% in 2026.

The IMF also has forecasts for inflation, which it predicts will be 2.2% this year and 2.1% in 2026. As for unemployment, the institution estimates that the rate in Portugal will be 6.4% this year and 6.3% next year.

For the eurozone, the IMF forecasts 1.2% growth this year, an upward revision compared to July, while for 2026 the projection is revised downward to 1.1%. "High uncertainty on multiple fronts and rising tariffs are the main drivers" of these estimates, according to the World Economic Outlook.

The IMF highlights that “the recovery in private consumption, with higher real wages, and fiscal easing in Germany in 2026, represent only a partial offset, while Ireland's strong performance boosts growth in 2025”.

The Fund also projects that the budget balance will worsen in the eurozone, particularly taking into account "a 0.8 percentage point increase in the deficit in Germany, resulting from increased spending on infrastructure and military capacity."

Regarding public debt, the debt-to-GDP ratio in the euro area is estimated to reach 92% in 2030, compared with 87% in 2024.