Government leaves almost 3 million people out of Bolsa Família and puts pressure on municipalities

One of the main social policies of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's (PT) government, Bolsa Família has not met the national demand for its benefits. In February of this year, 2.8 million people — or 1.9 million families — met the requirements but were on the waiting list to be served.

In addition, the government has been making cuts to the program that end up putting pressure on the municipal administration. Examples of this include the reduction in the program's budget for 2025, of R$9.5 billion, and in the amount of federal funds for screening and registering families.

The data comes from a survey conducted by the National Confederation of Municipalities (CNM), to which Gazeta do Povo had exclusive access. According to the study, in 2024 the Ministry of Social Development (MDS) reduced the value of the Decentralized Management Index of the Bolsa Família Program and Single Registry (IGD-PBF), from R$4 to R$3.25 per registration.

The resource, according to the CNM, is financial support from the Union for municipalities to develop management actions for the program and the Single Registry, such as active searches, updates and registration verification.

According to the entity, by reducing this transfer, “the Union disregards its responsibilities and transfers them to the municipalities, disregarding elements related to demand, such as service capacity and inflation”.

The CNM states that, if the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA — which measures inflation) were considered to readjust federal co-financing for the IGD-PBF, the amount transferred to municipalities should be at least R$8.76 per beneficiary.

The survey carried out by the entity also shows that, currently, 53.8 million people receive Bolsa Família benefits, equivalent to 20.5 million families.

The number is higher than the 51.8 million beneficiaries in December 2022, at the end of the Bolsonaro government, but lower than the 55.2 million people served in December 2023.

The 2022-2023 biennium was the recent period in which the program showed the greatest growth, jumping from 14.5 million families in January 2022 to 21.3 million in December 2023.

According to the CNM survey, the increase in those years was due to two main factors: the growth of the population in a situation of social vulnerability and the 73% increase in single-person families (with a single member) registered in CadÚnico.

Limit on participation of single-person families in Bolsa Família

The year 2023 was also the recent peak of pent-up demand — the term refers to people/families eligible to receive the benefit, but who are not served by the program. That year, 3.4 million people were on the waiting list.

Due to the increase in the number of single-person families participating in the program, the Ministry of Social Development issued a rule in 2023 to contain this expansion, limiting the number of households of this nature to 16%. Administrative measures were also implemented to update the registration.

As a result, almost 1 million families stopped receiving the benefit. This reduction allowed families on the waiting list to enter the program, causing pent-up demand to reach the current level of 2.8 million people (1.9 million families).

Southeast states and Bahia lead the waiting list

São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are the two states with the highest pent-up demand, with 551,500 and 549,200 people, respectively. Next comes Bahia, with 197,600 people on the waiting list.

In the analysis by region, the Southeast leads the ranking of pent-up demand, with 45% of people in line, followed by the Northeast (25%), North (11%), South (10%) and Central-West (9%).

According to CNM estimates, considering the average PBF transfer of R$668.65 per family/month, R$15.5 billion per year would be needed to meet the current pent-up demand of 1.9 million families.

The amount corresponds to a 9.1% increase in the budget approved in 2024. However, this year, instead of an increase, as in previous years, there was a cut of R$9.5 billion in the amount allocated to Bolsa Família by the federal government.

Reduction in government transfers to the program in 2025

The cut occurred after a large budget expansion of the program. According to the CNM, in 2023, due to the PEC (transition bill), transfers were increased by 46% compared to 2022, reaching R$166.7 billion.

In 2024, the increase in the program's budget was much smaller, 1%, to R$169 billion. For 2025, the budget predicted a cut of 6%, or R$9.5 billion.

So far, of the R$159.5 billion earmarked for funding Bolsa Família this year, 25% has already been paid — equivalent to R$41.3 billion.

Government revises rules for discontinuing Bolsa Família

This Thursday (15), the federal government updated the program's protection rules . The rule governs the disconnection of families that have exceeded the maximum income level allowed to receive benefits.

Currently, the income limit for entry into Bolsa Família is R$218 per person in the family. While in the program, families that exceed this amount, but do not exceed half the minimum wage per person (R$706), enter the protection rule.

Before the ordinance issued this week, the protection rule allowed them to remain in the program for another 24 months, receiving 50% of the benefit to which they were entitled. With the update, the time of permanence was reduced by half, to 12 months.

The new rule affects families that enter the protection rule from June onwards. Those that were already in this condition will continue with the previous period for disconnection (24 months).

If income falls again, even if the family has already been removed from Bolsa Família, it is possible for them to receive the benefit again, through the guaranteed return mechanism, valid for 36 months.

In a subtle way, these cuts and restrictions may indicate possible fiscal limits for the program. With the 2026 elections approaching, the need to meet targets and, with Bolsa Família being one of the government's flagship programs, it is unlikely that the government will want to foot the bill alone, sharing it with the municipalities.