Trump's tariff hike boosts Lula's administration, says Antonio Lavareda

The tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump against Brazil have significantly altered the political landscape and boosted the approval of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), positioning the government favorably for next year's election, according to political scientist Antonio Lavareda, president of the scientific council of Ipespe.

Participating in CNN 's 'WW Especial' program , Lavareda highlighted that Trump's tariff hike improved Lula's approval rating, despite the general perception of the economy still presenting challenges for the government.

"Brazilians' disapproval of Trump's tariff hike is remarkably high, exceeding 60%. This popular rejection has been a trump card for the president's positioning," he stated.

According to Lavareda, presidential election results are determined by a combination of factors. He highlighted three crucial elements: presidential approval, the economy as perceived by voters (not the objective economy), and, finally, cyclical factors or "very special events that occasionally occur."

Lavareda said that President Lula's approval rating had already been showing a slight improvement in the polls, but that he still faced a "very high approval deficit." However, Trump's tariffs appear to have changed this dynamic. "Trump's tariffs improved Lula's approval," he emphasized.

He added that some pollsters already indicate Lula's approval rating is slightly higher than his disapproval rating , and that other surveys, even without this shift, have recorded a narrowing gap. "This improves the situation for the incumbent president running next year," the political scientist noted.

According to Lavareda, regarding the economy more broadly, President Lula still faces challenges. "Only 38% of voters believe the Brazilian economy is on the right track," he noted.

However, in the specific context of tariffs — which Lavareda classifies as a cyclical event and which should extend into next year — the situation has turned out positively for the government.

“In short, although the general perception of the economy is still a challenge, the specific tariff event has emerged as a conjunctural factor that has benefited the Lula government, boosting its approval and strengthening its political positioning,” he concluded.