This time inflation did not surprise downwards. Price growth still above the NBP target

In June, CPI inflation was slightly higher than in May – according to from the Central Statistical Office's quick estimate. Despite lower fuel prices the consumer price index continued to rise faster than policy assumes National Bank of Poland.

In June 2025, the goods and services price index Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 4.1% higher in compared to the same month last year – results from the rapid estimate of the Central Statistical Office. This reading is slightly higher than the 4% recorded finally in May and also amounting to 4% of the median of economists' forecasts

Compared to May, the basket of goods increased in price by 0.1%. Such the result for the entire basket is due to a further decline in fuel prices, which in June were on average 1.3% cheaper than in May and as much as 10% cheaper than a year ago - according to data from the Central Statistical Office. It is worth adding that the study The Central Statistical Office most likely did not take into account the sudden increase the increase in fuel prices that followed the Israeli attack on Iran .

In addition, prices were 0.3% lower than in the previous month. energy carriers (probably mainly fuel). At the same time, as a result of last year's electricity and gas tariff increases energy prices were still 12.8% higher than in June 2024. This high base effect will expire in July. Food prices went up by 0.1% MoM and 4.9% YoY. However, the annual data still we are still feeling the effects of last year's increase in the VAT rate on articles food, which was raised from 0% to 5%. A year ago, large retail chains "stretched" raising retail prices for several months.

Economists expect CPI inflation to rise significantly after June will fall. This will be mainly due to the effect of last year's high base - from July we will compare energy prices with prices after price increases tariffs from July 2024. Secondly, reduced gas tariffs will come into force Thirdly, the effect of the increase in the VAT rate on food will fade away. There is a good chance that due to the combination of these factors, inflation will increase in July CPI will be below 3%.

But most likely these readings will still be above The National Bank of Poland's 2.5 percent inflation target. Only 4 of the previous 68 months CPI inflation was shaped within this target. In As a result, the NBP inflation target was permanently exceeded, both in both in the medium and long term. The average (geometric) CPI inflation for the last 5 years it was 7.47%, 10 years it was 4.34%, and 20 years later it was level of 3.32%.

The average annual CPI inflation for 2024 amounted to, according to the Central Statistical Office 3.6%. This is still too much, but also significantly less than in previous years. The result for 2023 it is 11.4%, in 2022 the average annual inflation was 14.4%, and in 2021 5.1%.

Since this was only a "quick estimate" of June inflation, we have full data broken down into individual categories and specific goods listed. This information will be shown in the report that will be published in mid-July.

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