The Fed cuts rates, and the dollar is volatile. Data from Poland did not help the zloty.

published 2025-09-18 10:55

After the cut in interest rates in the US, the dollar exchange rate first deepened their multi-year lows and then began to quickly recover. The zloty August macroeconomic statistics were not favorable, which increased the chances for interest rate cuts at the National Bank of Poland.

photo: Ruslan Lytvyn / / Shutterstock

The highlight of the week and maybe even the quarter was Wednesday Federal Reserve interest rate cut . FOMC in line with expectations cut rates by 25 basis points and announced two more cuts by the end of 2025. Monetary the lever in America has clearly been switched to a more relaxed mode policy, which should translate into higher inflation in the US and a weaker dollar.

And this was the initial reaction of the market, with the EUR/USD exchange rate shot up and set a new 4-year high of almost 1.1920 USD. But a moment later the Eurodollar turned south and by Thursday morning it lowered its quotes to USD 1.1830.

The USD/PLN exchange rate followed the rhythm of these fluctuations, first falling to PLN 3.5670, deepening the 7-year minimum, and later rising to PLN 3.62. At 10:30 a.m., the greenback was trading at PLN 3.6030. Theoretically, it would be weaker in the long run. the dollar should support the quotations of emerging market currencies, including Polish zloty.

It's just that the macro data coming from the Polish economy are not really good for our currency. It turned out that in In August there was an unexpectedly strong slowdown in wage dynamics , which opens the way for further interest rate cuts at the National Bank of Poland. The interest rate also fell again employment and statistics from industry showed continuing stagnation in this sector of the economy. Producer price deflation also continued (negative PPI year-on-year dynamics), and the results construction industry fell into the red.

For now, however, the euro rate to The Polish zloty remains extremely stable. In the morning, the common currency was valued at PLN 4.2593, which is only half a groszy higher than the day before. In April, the EUR/PLN exchange rate moves in a rather narrow sideways trend, maintaining range of PLN 4.23-4.31.

The Swiss franc remains strong, traded at 4.5676 PLN. That's almost a penny more than the day before. Still This means maintaining the sideways trend within the range of PLN 4.50-4.60. The British pound It cost 4.9084 PLN, which is 0.6 groszy more than on Wednesday evening.

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