Cristina and the other election that matters most to her: the PJ (Party of the People) is putting 15 Senate seats at stake and predicting a catastrophe.

He based his decision on the need to seek victory in the Buenos Aires elections, given how a potential defeat in the provincial vote on September 7 could impact Peronism's performance in the national elections in October, both in the province and throughout the country.

In what was a direct blow to Axel Kicillof for his decision to separate the provincial election from the national one , the PJ president asked: "Did anyone think that if we do poorly in September, this could spill over into the October elections, to the entire country?"

And he immediately added: "We're heading to elections in eight provinces where senators were elected on the presidential ticket. We're heading to the best election Peronism has had since 2015."

This is precisely where part of Cristina's electoral strategy lies. On the one hand, she's seeking to win in the Third Electoral Section. She'll likely achieve this, even if Peronism loses in the rest of the Province. She'll be able to say, almost as a heroic gesture: "You see, I was right? I did what I had to do." A potential Peronist defeat in the other seven electoral sections of the Province, according to that logic, should then be attributed to Kicillof.

But the other underlying issue is the Senate, where Peronism has 34 senators and is currently just three short of a quorum and a majority (37). Cristina focused precisely on that point in her interview with C5N on Monday.

In none of the eight districts that will renew senators in October—Chaco, Buenos Aires City, Entre Ríos, Río Negro, Salta, Tierra del Fuego, Santiago del Estero, and Neuquén— does Peronism appear to have a chance of winning.

Those eight provinces have 24 senators, 15 of whom are Peronists. A closer look reveals a more important detail for the former president: of those 15, 11 are from La Cámpora or loyal to it.

It's a topic being discussed behind closed doors within the Peronist bloc in the Senate. They foresee a "catastrophe" looming and that the bloc's firepower will be significantly reduced , perhaps as never before in the last 40 years.

Brief review district by district:

• -Chaco. Cristina has two senators lined up, Antonio Rodas and Inés Pilatti Vergara , who sits on the Council of the Judiciary for the upper house. It's likely that the provincial ruling party, led by Radical Party leader Leandro Zdero , who recently ran in the elections allied with La Libertad Avanza, will win again in that province. With luck, Peronism would retain one of the two seats it will put up for grabs. Jorge Capitanich is rumored to be a candidate.
• City of Buenos Aires. The minority seat is held by Camporista Mariano Recalde. If the results of the May Buenos Aires elections are repeated, Peronism could elect a senator. It is said that there has been an agreement for Recalde to seek another term, but Leandro Santoro could enter the race.
• Entre Ríos. Stefanía Cora 's seat is at stake. PRO governor Rogelio Frigerio is estimated to be able to win two senators again, but there are doubts about what will happen with the third seat. Could he go to La Libertad Avanza?
• Salta. The mandates of Kirchnerists Sergio Napoleón Leavy and Nora del Valle Giménez are expiring. It's also likely that the ruling party led by provincial governor Gustavo Sáenz will manage to secure those two seats. And the minority seat? For the Libertarians or Kirchnerists?
• Santiago del Estero. As has been the case in recent years, everything indicates that Governor Gerardo Zamora 's plan will secure all three seats: the two majority seats and the minority seat. Zamora usually plays along with Cristina, but he plays his own game.
• Río Negro. The terms of Camporista Martín Dooñate and Cristina García Larraburu are expiring. The Peronist bloc considers it unlikely that Peronism will retain two seats in that Patagonian province. It will face the provincial government of Governor Alberto Weretilneck and La Libertad Avanza.
• Neuquén. The same applies to Río Negro. The bloc has two Kirchnerist senators whose terms are expiring: Oscar Parrilli and Silvia Sapag . With luck, they'll be able to re-elect a single senator for the province governed by Rolando Figueroa.
• Tierra del Fuego. The terms of office of Camporista Eugenia Duré and Peronist Cristina López are expiring. In this Patagonian province, administered by Kirchnerist Gustavo Melella, the electoral scenario appears very open, especially after the National Government's decision to lower tariffs on cell phone imports.

"La Cámpora and Kirchnerism are going to lose about 10 senators," a senator aligned with the Peronist governor of his province, whose term is not up, told Clarín .

Everything would lead to a reconfiguration of internal power. According to this legislator, the election result will lead to a re-discussion of power quotas within the party, for example, the representatives on the strategic Council of the Judiciary . "Cristina will no longer be able to keep everything for herself ," the legislator states.

Cristina may once again seek to have a monopoly on the pen when it comes to drawing up the lists of national senators. One member of the bloc sees a sign of this in the former president's intervention in the PJ (July 1998) party in Salta. "She sent Sergio Berni and Luz Alonso as intervenors." María Luz "Luchi" Alonso is a member of La Cámpora and served as administrative secretary of the Senate between 2019 and 2023, during the time CFK presided over the Senate.

Some in Buenos Aires Peronism interpret Cristina's decision to compete in "La Tercera" as "very predictable." They believe the PJ leader chose to take refuge in the only place where she has a chance of winning.

His decision, however, has not received 100 percent support. Fernando Gray, mayor of Esteban Echeverría—a party that is part of the Third Electoral Section —plans to send a letter this Wednesday to Cristina Kirchner, as president of the National PJ, and to Máximo Kirchner, head of the Buenos Aires PJ, for an internal party meeting to determine the Peronist candidates .

"Now there are no more PASO elections; the candidates must be defined internally," Gray told Clarín .

The other point being observed within the Buenos Aires Peronist movement is that with her announcement that she will be a candidate, Cristina is once again positioning herself as the boss in the internal dispute with Kicillof. "Axel isn't in a position to say no, 'You're not going to be a candidate,'" notes a mayor from the First Electoral Section.

For this mayor, whatever happens in the elections, a new era for Peronism will begin in December. He believes that Kirchnerism will finally enter a process of extinction. Many have been predicting this for a while, but all have been wrong so far.