The market projects a dollar at $1.324 and inflation of 27% by the end of the year.

The country's leading economic analysts have adjusted their projections for the end of 2025. According to the latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) , released this Friday by the Central Bank , the wholesale dollar is expected to be $1.324 and annual inflation is expected to reach 27%, confirming the trend toward decelerating prices and a slight rebound in the exchange rate.

According to consulting firms surveyed by the BCRA, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.8% in June, one-tenth of a percentage point less than the previous forecast . Estimates for the coming months point to contained monthly inflation, with variations of less than 2%.

The detailed monthly forecasts are as follows:

July: 1.7% August: 1.6% September: 1.7% October: 1.7% November: 1.5%

December: 1.7%

With this trend, inflation in 2025 would close at 27%, 1.6 percentage points below the 28.6% forecast in the previous report. For the next 12 months, a year-on-year CPI of 20.8% is estimated, indicating that the disinflationary process could consolidate, although still above regional and international averages.

Regarding the official wholesale exchange rate—key to foreign trade and reserves —the REM revised its forecast upward. For July, it projects an average value of $1,207, above the $1,181.5 estimated last month.

Looking ahead to December, economists expect a wholesale dollar of $1.324, up from the $1.300 previously forecast. Despite the adjustment, the projected price remains below the retail dollar, which this week stood at around $1.260.

The slight increase in devaluation expectations is linked to the government's decision to abandon the crawling peg system —the controlled and progressive devaluation of the peso—and move toward a managed floating rate with bands.

Furthermore, the partial easing of the exchange rate controls impacted the supply and demand for foreign currency, modifying relative prices and short- and medium-term forecasts.

The outlook for the second half of the year combines lower monthly inflation with a faster-rising official dollar. This could lead to a more competitive real exchange rate, key for export sectors and external balance.

If projections are met, the government would close the year with inflation below 30% and a moderately corrected official exchange rate , in line with the macroeconomic goals set by the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank.