The Economic Revolution of Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has ceased to be a future promise and has become a transformative force in the present. According to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) World Economic Outlook Report, published on April 22, 2025, AI will add approximately 0.5 percentage points to global GDP growth each year until 2030. This revolution is not only redefining productive sectors but is also shaping new geopolitical, social, and environmental dynamics. As with any technological revolution, risks and opportunities coexist in a delicate balance.

The IMF's latest projections underscore the vast potential of AI as a driver of growth. Advances in automation, machine learning, and cognitive technologies are accelerating productivity in sectors such as logistics, finance, healthcare, and education. AI's ability to automate complex decisions, optimize resource allocation, and improve data analysis promises to generate previously unimaginable efficiencies.

Industries that integrate AI into their operations could see exponential returns, especially in those economies that already have a solid digital infrastructure and mature innovation ecosystems. However, there is no guarantee that this revolution will distribute these productivity gains equitably.

Advanced economies, especially those leading in AI research and infrastructure, appear best positioned to benefit. Developing countries risk falling behind, further widening the wealth gap and, therefore, inequality. Within countries, labor markets could also face significant changes. Highly specialized professions—such as AI engineering, cybersecurity, and data science—will continue to expand, while some routine jobs will become more vulnerable to automation.

The emergence of "cognitive labor markets," where intellectual work becomes modular and automatable, can challenge traditional employment models. Training and education are key to harnessing the potential of AI for businesses, governments, and individuals. One of the risks of mismanaging these new opportunities resulting from the AI ​​economic revolution could potentially generate inequalities both within and between nations. In addition to the growth promises expressed by the IMF, the energy needs and, therefore, the environmental impact of AI must be a priority issue in public policy discussions.

The IMF warns that the rise of AI-related computing could add between 1.3 and 1.7 gigatons of CO₂ emissions by 2030—equivalent to five years of Italy's current energy emissions. The enormous energy demands of training and operating AI models pose a paradox: while AI can optimize power grids, develop new materials, and accelerate decarbonization technologies, it also risks becoming a major source of emissions.

Major technology companies are already investing in solutions such as more energy-efficient AI hardware, low-power inference models, and sustainable data center designs. However, aligning AI growth with climate goals will remain one of the most significant challenges of the next decade.

Beyond the economic and environmental impacts, AI is rapidly becoming a new axis of geopolitical competition. Control over AI infrastructure—semiconductors, data sets, and supercomputing—confers not only economic but also strategic advantages. The race for AI infrastructure is not just about competitiveness: it's about economic independence and long-term resilience.

Artificial intelligence represents one of the most profound transformations of the global economy since the Industrial Revolution. The potential to unlock new levels of prosperity is significant, but there are also risks of increased inequality and environmental impacts.

The IMF's projections clearly show that the world is at a historic moment. Visionary leadership, agility in public policy, and ethically grounded innovation are essential for this new era. The AI-driven economic revolution is already underway. Whether it elevates humanity or deepens its problems will depend on the decisions made to guide it through these defining moments.