Sharp decline in industrial activity: four months of decline and 2007 figures

Industrial activity in Argentina once again showed a decline that raised alarm bells. According to a recent report, production fell 2.1% between March and June, marking four consecutive months of decline. With this result, manufacturing levels returned to figures comparable to September 2007.

The study, prepared by the Center for Economic Cycle Research (CICEc) based on data from INDEC, highlighted that 12 of the 16 productive sectors registered declines. The most affected were the food and beverage sectors, although other key segments of the economy were also affected.

One of the most worrying figures is the utilization of installed capacity, which remained below 60% in June. This is the seventh consecutive month at this level, reflecting not only oversupply but also a clear lack of incentives to increase production.

The report noted that the industry was coming out of a period of recovery. Between April 2024 and February 2025, it had achieved a rebound of around 9%. However, since March, that trend has reversed. In the year-over-year comparison, growth has been reduced to just 4%.

Another point highlighted by the survey is that the current level of industrial activity is 13% below the all-time high reached in November 2011. This shows that, despite some improvement in 2024, the sector has steadily lost ground in recent months.

Experts warn that this situation will have consequences for employment and the generation of added value. A combination of low activity and low capacity utilization often leads to staff cuts or plant closures.

The decline in food and beverages is particularly striking, as this sector tends to be more resilient to crises. If it continues, it could impact both the supply of basic products and foreign trade related to these goods.

The study suggests that stimulus policies, tax relief, and investment promotion measures are needed to avoid a more serious scenario. Without concrete action, industrial activity could face an even greater decline in the remainder of the year.

In parallel, another report by the Latin American Strategic Center for Geopolitics (CELAG), using data from INDEC , revealed sharp increases in the basic food basket. Since November 2023, milk and bread have increased by more than 240%, while fine salt has quadrupled in price in twenty months.

These increases directly affect the purchasing power of Argentine households. The combination of declining production and food inflation presents a complex outlook. Analysts agree that, without a change of direction, industrial activity in Argentina will continue to face growing challenges in the coming months.