Rain and heat leave 1,735 deaths

Since 2010, Mexico has recorded 1,735 deaths associated with rainfall and flooding, as well as heat waves, according to official federal government figures.

According to data from the National Center for Disaster Prevention (Cenapred) and the federal Ministry of Health (SSA), in the period from 2010 to 2023—the most updated publicly available—659 deaths were recorded due to rain and flooding, with 2010 being the deadliest year with 100 cases, followed by 2011 with 85 and 2016 with 70.

The figures have been on an upward trend since 2017, while in 2023 there was a 50% increase compared to the previous year, rising from 34 to 51 deaths.

Meanwhile, deaths from the heat wave—whose data covers the period from 2014 to June 2025—total 1,046 deaths, and show an upward trend with an increase in 2023, when 421 deaths were reported, an increase of 902% compared to 2022, when there were 42.

Although there was a slight decrease in 2024, with 331 cases, this figure still represents a significant increase compared to the average recorded between 2014 (23) and 2021 (33). On the other hand, according to the figures for the current year, there are 28 deaths recorded nationwide due to these causes.

Flood emergencies

Furthermore, from 2000 to 2024, Mexico has recorded 1,168 declarations of emergencies, disasters, or climatic contingencies related to flooding, according to figures from Cenapred's Declaration Consultation System. The number reflects the sustained impact of extreme events linked to intense rainfall in different regions of the country, with particularly severe peaks in 2008 and 2010.

In 2008, 225 declarations were issued, the highest number in the entire period. Two years later, in 2010, 150 more were recorded. In contrast, no declarations were recorded in 2000 and 2001, and 2024 also closed without any officially recognized incidents.

For several days, Mexico City and the State of Mexico have faced intense rains that have triggered severe flooding and collapsed roads and homes. On June 2, between 50 and 70 mm of rain fell in 24 hours, causing flooding in municipalities such as Iztapalapa, Gustavo A. Madero, Azcapotzalco, and Miguel Hidalgo, complicating daily traffic.

The Los Cuartos Dam in Naucalpan, State of Mexico, also overflowed, causing flooding exceeding 30 centimeters and affecting at least 50 homes.

Meanwhile, in Tamaulipas this week, torrential rains caused the Sabinas River to overflow its banks in the municipality of Mante.

Climate diversity of Mexico

Experts consulted by El Economista indicated that the country's diverse climate, with flooding in some regions and extreme droughts in others, has revealed a combination of poor planning, inadequate dam management, deforestation, and overexploitation of aquifers that is worsening the situation in the country.

Víctor Magaña, a researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), harshly criticized the official drought monitoring system, which is coordinated by the National Water Commission (Conagua). "Very strange things are being mixed up, such as rainfall deficits with dam levels, and the management is poor. This creates a perception of crisis that may not correspond to the actual data."

He also emphasized that in regions with low natural rainfall, planning should be based on historical averages, not atypical expectations. Trying to operate under optimistic rainfall scenarios creates, he said, a "permanent drought."

From another perspective, environmental activist Aurélien Guilabert, a member of Extinction Rebellion Mexico, pointed out that the apparent contradiction between intense rainfall and flooding in some regions and prolonged droughts in others is due to a phenomenon that various academics have begun to call the "water paradox." He explained that this situation is a result of global warming combined with the country's climate diversity, which intensifies hydrological extremes.

He also noted that massive deforestation in key areas has weakened the country's ability to retain water and recharge aquifers. "Forests are essential for water balance, and their destruction increases the vulnerability of entire communities," he warned. He also denounced the abuse of aquifers through excessive well drilling, a practice that, he said, disrupts the balance of the water-soil-atmosphere cycle.

Specialists agreed that the solution to mitigating the effects of climate change lies in a profound change in national water policy: better planning, transparency in resource management, environmental restoration, and regulation of water use, especially in agriculture.