Listed companies will grow less in the second quarter

The second-quarter earnings reports of companies listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) are expected to show lower revenue growth, operating cash flow (EBITDA), and pressure on profitability, according to experts.

Overall, they expect a regular season, with significant sectoral contrasts, hampered by a year-over-year depreciation of the peso, uncertainty surrounding tariffs that affected private consumption, and an economic slowdown.

"The themes for this reporting season in Mexico will revolve around weak volumes and margins in cyclical sectors such as cement and autos, affected by the economic slowdown, challenging comparative prices, and adverse weather conditions," explained Alejandra Vargas, stock market analyst at Grupo Financiero Bx+.

He added that the exchange rate and foreign trade, especially in companies with operations in the United States (such as Cemex, GCC, Nemak), where the depreciation of the peso and the tariff environment play a key role.

Resilience in defensive sectors such as telecommunications (Megacable), airports (GAP, OMA, ASUR), and Fibras, which have shown the ability to maintain solid margins and moderate growth despite the uncertain environment, he explained

Alejandra Vargas warned that "the impact of the political and economic environment in the United States following Trump's return to power, the tariff threats, were immediate, so some products have been affected in both demand and margins. Likewise, some industries have postponed projects or investments in the country until they have greater certainty," she said.

Alik García, deputy director of Stock Market Analysis for Valmex Casa de Bolsa, announced that, during the period, companies included in the BMV's main index will see a revenue increase of nearly 10.8% and a 9.4% increase in operating cash flow.

"With these results, we're going to have a season in which revenue will still see double-digit growth, but compared to past seasons, we'll have a slower pace of growth. This quarter, we're even seeing pressure on profitability," the expert noted.

He added that the slower results are due to an exchange rate effect compared to the first quarter, "which will translate into lower revenues."

Furthermore, there was a moderation in the economic cycle in Mexico, and consumption lagged due to caution regarding tariffs. Consumers have also been cautious considering the direction of inflation, the expert noted.

Negative outlook

Analysts agreed that the sectors with negative outlooks are automotive, cement, food, and consumer discretionary goods. "In the second quarter, the automotive industry will still face challenges, as incentives for electric cars have waned in the United States and expected volumes have been delayed. This, coupled with the tariff issue, could lead to inventory restructuring and weak demand," noted Ariel Méndez, stock market analyst for Bx+, in a study.

He added that cement companies will be under pressure as volumes are expected to be low due to a slowdown in demand, rates, and weather effects.

Alik García emphasized that, in the beverage sector in particular, the climate was not favorable to businesses, and consumers were cautious about immigration exports to the United States.

Mining companies are forecasting negative reports, as despite the 3.4% annual increase in the price of some metals, such as copper, a decline in sales is expected, in line with the previous quarter. EBITDA is also expected to decline.

Cement companies will see an annual sales decline of nearly 6.7%; however, analysts believe the report could be under further pressure, as adverse factors and a high comparison base would outweigh the price benefits.

Resilient sectors

Experts agreed that sectors such as airports, finance, and basic consumer goods will benefit from higher rates, as well as the depreciation of the peso against the dollar.

Alik García believes that banking firms will be resilient, and that the pace of portfolio growth will remain dynamic, which will support increased revenue and profits for companies.

Ariel Méndez announced that airport groups will stabilize, as passenger traffic, primarily domestic, continues to improve, offsetting the decline in international traffic. The engine overhaul appears to be under greater control.

According to experts, a mixed report is expected, with companies reporting gradual improvements in sales.

Furthermore, given the uncertainty in the United States, freight rates could continue to boost results and expand margins.

Likewise, the tariff scenario is not bad for companies in the industrial sector, as demand has been resilient.