Centrist Rodrigo Paz leads Bolivia's presidential election; runoff is possible.

Centrist Senator Rodrigo Paz of the Christian Democratic Party was leading in Bolivia's presidential election on Sunday, according to initial official results, which showed the ruling Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party headed for its worst defeat in 20 years.

Paz obtained 32.18% of the votes, while Eduardo del Castillo of the MAS party had only obtained 3.16%, and former conservative president Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga of the Alianza Libre coalition was in second place with 26.85% of the votes, according to the initial results.

These results indicate that the election will be decided in a runoff on October 19 if no candidate receives more than 40% of the vote, a 10-point lead. Complete official results will be announced within seven days.

"Bolivia is not only asking for a change of government, it is asking for a change of political system," Paz said in a speech Sunday night. "This is the beginning of a great victory, of a great transformation," he added, as his supporters chanted "renewal."

Earlier, Quiroga, who will face Paz in the runoff, acknowledged the results and congratulated him on his performance.

Voters also elected the 26 senators and 130 representatives of Congress . These officials will take office on November 8.

Sunday's general elections were marked by inflation, which reached its highest level in four decades, and by the absence of former leftist president Evo Morales, who was barred from running in the elections.

Paz's victory came as a surprise in Bolivia, as she had obtained 10% support in all preliminary polls, far behind "Tuto" Quiroga and candidate Samuel Doria Medina of the center-right coalition Alianza Unidad.

"Rodrigo Paz's surprise is against the political system and the old politicians who continue to participate. In other words, it's not just against the MAS; there's a public outcry toward the old party system," political analyst José Luis Santisteban told local channel Red Uno.

Among his proposals, Paz plans to decentralize government by introducing a 50-50 economic model, where the central government would manage only half of public funds. The remainder would be allocated to regional governments.

Doria Medina acknowledged defeat and stated that he will support Rodrigo Paz in the runoff.

"decisive moment"

Voter turnout on Sunday was stable, authorities reported. Despite earlier concerns that the electoral process in Bolivia could be hampered by Morales supporters, who had called on citizens to boycott the election, international observers said the polls proceeded without major problems.

The head of the electoral mission of the Organization of American States (OAS), Juan Fernando Cristo, stated in a publication in X that the elections took place normally.

Earlier on Sunday, there were some minor incidents at polling stations in the central region of Cochabamba, Morales' political stronghold.

With a crowded field of eight presidential candidates and no dominant MAS candidate, the elections marked a "defining moment" for Bolivia, according to Glaeldys González Calanche, an Andean analyst with the Crisis Group.

Bolivia's fragile economy was the main concern for voters before the elections. Price increases have surpassed those of other Latin American countries this year, and fuel and dollars are in short supply.

Annual inflation doubled to 23 percent in June, up from 12 percent in January, and some Bolivians have turned to cryptocurrencies as a hedge.

Many Bolivians, especially those working in the informal economy, are now struggling to make ends meet, said economist Roger López.

"Now the prices of the basic food basket are rising, and they're rising rapidly," said López.

Early results showed that many chose to punish the MAS on Sunday.

"Every year the situation has gotten worse and worse (...) There are no job opportunities," said Silvia Morales, 30, who works in a retail store in La Paz and had anticipated voting for the center-right.

Carlos Blanco Casas, a 60-year-old teacher from La Paz, said he also intended to vote for change. "There's a need for a change of direction. I see these elections as filled with hope above all else," he said.

Quiroga has promised "radical change" to reverse what he calls "20 lost years" under the MAS government and supports deep cuts in public spending and a move away from alliances with Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua. The candidate served as president for one year, between 2001 and 2002, after Hugo Banzer resigned.

Silvia Morales, 30, a former MAS voter from La Paz, said she had voted for Paz on Sunday.

"He's a new face with experience," Morales said. "I think we should leave room for new opportunities," he concluded.