Banks are issuing mortgages at half the rate they did before the Great Recession.

In March and May 2006, two memorable events occurred, and a third that, although not so memorable, has gained significance over the years. ETA announced its permanent ceasefire, and Barça won its second European Cup. Furthermore—and this is the third event—during those two months, mortgage lending exceeded €17 billion for the only time to date. This was one of the signs of the real estate bubble that led to the Great Recession of 2008 and the banking collapse.

Almost twenty years later, housing prices have reached levels seen in those years, credit is rebounding strongly, and some past fears are resurfacing. There is, however, a nuance: the current volume of mortgages granted is less than half of what it was in 2006 or 2007. In June, according to the latest data from the Bank of Spain, the figure was 7.854 billion. If there is a bubble, the banks are distancing themselves from it, at least for now.

Mortgages exceeded 41 billion in the first half of the year, but in 2006 they were around 90 billion.

Mortgage loans in the first half of the year reached €41.238 billion. This is a 24% increase over the same period last year and the highest figure since 2008, which in itself is a warning. However, it is far from the levels recorded between 2005 and 2007, when they consistently exceeded €70 billion. Throughout the first half of 2006, the figure was around €90 billion.

In their latest half-yearly financial statements, banks have once again reported low non-performing loans and solvency levels above the ECB's requirements, thereby allaying any concerns about financial imbalances. Their argument is that mortgage lending standards are now stringent, with loans often below 80% of the home's value, and that prudential policies are keeping their balance sheets in check.

Last week, the European Banking Authority (EBA) published its latest banking sector risk report, with no warnings about the mortgage market. The only exception is that, although non-performing loans in Spain account for less than 3% of the total, the country has the fourth worst performance in the EU in this respect.

The downside to banking caution is that accessing a mortgage is now more difficult. Qualis Credit Risk estimates that in Barcelona and Madrid, it's necessary to have 70,000 euros saved to cover the down payment and expenses. Meanwhile, nearly half of apartments, according to the Association of Notaries, are paid for in cash, suggesting a growing polarization between those who can afford housing and those who can't.

At the recent half-year results presentation, CaixaBank CEO Gonzalo Gortázar emphasized the need for "more new construction" to address the housing bottleneck that is hindering economic growth. "There is nothing limiting mortgage growth except the price itself," he warned.

Santander also reports no worrying factors in mortgage lending. In Spain, it asserts, "the mortgage portfolio is performing well, helped by the drop in interest rates, lower inflationary pressure, and a strong labor market." Its CEO, Héctor Grisi, has even used the word "joy" to describe the current market situation. "The housing problem in Spain," he stated a few months ago, "is not an issue of banks or financing, but of supply."

The Bank of Spain has estimated the housing shortage at 600,000 units, and building permits barely exceed 56,000, compared to 729,652 in 2005. The shortage and the anticipation effect on purchasing decisions are now contributing to accelerating sales, mortgage lending, and also prices. Caixabank Research and the Appraisal Society forecast that prices will rise 9% this year.

Another message from the banks is that the Euribor is falling and the mortgage market is "very competitive," more so than the European average, they say. The word "bubble" hasn't appeared in their speeches for now.